Cold hunt - models and chat

[Updated_Weather]

Siding away from 12z runs at the moment..

This caught my eye.. Interesting!

[shaky]

Ukmo actually looks better then gfs now lol!!anyway still snow potential from 48 hours to 120 hours!!

[Weathizard]

Good NH profile but poor in our region, sums up winter!

[SLEETY]

Nice looking Arctic profile on the gfs, could be a good run later on. 

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Gfs even worse at 126 hours!

Can you please explain to some of the users especially newbies that may not understand what are you on about?

 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Where?

Cymru, Mae hi yn y Deyrnas Unedig

[Eskimo]

[Snowman.]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

You're a bit late, we're up to t144 already

Talking about the runner you can't see it the inbetween bit of 96 and 120 would like to know it's track and precipitation with it.

[Mapantz]

Right.. let's stop with the one liners, winding people up and bickering. There's an increasing opportunity of some exciting weather next week, one operational run is not enough to wipe that away, so let's keep it friendly eh?!

Thanks.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Can you please explain to some of the users especially newbies that may not understand what are you on about?

 

Low further west dragging in mild aor and at the moment just looks stuck there like a slug!!no slider what so ever!!worse position and most frustrating position to be in considering all the background signals and also with a ridge getting thrown into greenland!!we are extremely unlucky cos another winter and 9 times out of 10 with cold air over the uk that low would slide!!

[Vikos]

Anyone sees the continental high building up in Mid-America? Maybe the terminator punch for canada vortex?

[Stonethecrows]

Few itchy trigger fingers out there at the minute, we've got a definitely not a bowling ball has potential and poor IS a bowling ball talking about the same chart lol. Just shows whatever the charts say it's still all subjective. Incidently met office update pretty good.

[Mike Poole]

GFS T132, better than previous run, and nice to see that damned rabbit decapitated.

If there's any confusion, I think some on here are looking at short term snow potential, others inc. me at medium term freeze potential.

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

C, mon..we know there is an abundance to play out and be deciphered here.

This is a true rollercoaster scenario.

The tracking and placements are liable to jump and wobble now run 2 run..

My money stays where my mouth has been all day...on the eventual-staging of fruition....

[Disco_Stu]

6 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Siding away from 12z runs at the moment..

This caught my eye.. Interesting!

Oh go on then........why? 

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Low further west dragging in mild aor and at the moment just looks stuck there like a slug!!no slider what so ever!!worse position and most frustrating position to be in considering all the background signals and also with a ridge getting thrown into greenland!!we are extremely unlucky cos another winter and 9 times out of 10 with cold air over the uk that low would slide!!

Thank you

Sadly even with these background signals it never a guarantee for Cold on this island

But at least the profile of the artice is better so hopefully maybe something down the line come February 

Let's not give up just yet

 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS T132, better than previous run, and nice to see that damned rabbit decapitated.

If there's any confusion, I think some on here are looking at short term snow potential, others inc. me at medium term freeze potential.

I think medium to long term potential goes up a lot now it seems that PV is slowly dying... Short term prognosis still looks good, don't understand all the negativity as it will change every run for the next couple of days until that LP develops more! Things still looking great. Although I'm never letting you near my rabbit!

[swfc]

12z gFS looks proper rank imo.tbh ukmo looks pretty good on the nhp but not close to gfs scenario!!!

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Oh go on then........why? 

Because it hints at retrograding blocking ridge by Scandi-Greenland and then Canada which is a(-NAO) We will see

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Surely moving north based on that chart?

Nope - I would be comfortable at the moment 

[nick sussex]

Time to ditch this current chase and move into the next one !

Both the GFS and UKMO lift out most of the cold by day 6 before the precip arrives.

Unless you’re on top of Ben Nevis then at best it looks like three hours of slush and then rain wth a slow moving low stuck over the UK .

So day 6 currently looks like a write off and we now move onto the next chapter of Indiana Jones and the search for non slushy snow !

[Eskimo]

GEM, JMA, UKMO, ICON, GEFS all going the same way and showing a variation of the same theme for Wed/Thu - snow confined to highest hills/mountains. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by PerfectStorm

[kold weather]

Low isn't moving as well out the way here which means the cold pool doesn't really come down.

Next slider may well slide Into air on the wrong side of marginal. We may even get our friend, the mild easterly at some point.

As others have said, solid agreement. Looking like the King Euro nailed this, well done to ICON again for going with it before ukmo and GFS.

Third time lucky guys?!

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Methuselah]

God no! A west-based negative NAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

The precursor to some of the greatest cold spells of all time:

[ribster]

Blimey, if you've thrown the towel in, think the vortex of doom is to blame, or it's time to call it a day, you're 'done' with this rubbish winter or indeed it's all auntie Mavis' tea leaves fault, then perhaps it's time for a new hobby? Meanwhile, the rest of us are still enjoying the ride!