Cold hunt - models and chat

[Stuie]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Meanwhile, once folks have put down their handbags, Sunday may well see the start of some very interesting weather:

  

True, we have -8 850`s north and -6 East/ SE by evening

 

[Stu_London]

2 minutes ago, snowice said:

Here comes the snow at 84GFS

Doubt it will be snow at low levels in the south under -4C 850s

[Mike Poole]

UKMO T120, looking good I would suggest, ridge can perhaps link up with heights to the north, stuff heading our way is not a bowling ball, think this one has potential...

To be clear, my interest in the UKMO is mainly from a medium term perspective.  

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Stu_London said:

Doubt it will be snow at low levels in the south under -4C 850s

Had snow here under the same conditions.. Elevation will be crucial and cooling during any preciptation.

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

5 minutes ago, coldie said:

Does Wales not exist anymore? 

We certainly do.... Happy St Dwynwen's Day to you all

[SLEETY]

Too much westerly influence for the South on Ukmo at 120 chart I think. Never seen lying snow for long from that set up, better up North and on hills. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by SLEETY

[Johnp]

Poor UKMO again at day 6, bowling ball low to the west.

[Snowman.]

UKMO has a runner SW at 96. Be interesting to see how that plays out.

[Mike Poole]

And it's too far west again T144:

So we move on.

[SNMartyn]

Looking good to me.

[SLEETY]

Yeah no good again, and where is the Northern blocking to bring this bitter weather from the East soon, should be at least signs of it now. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Poor UKMO again at day 6, bowling ball low to the west.

Trying to work out the joke that got the laughter

yeah big low out west gonna drag in some milder air for most

[MattStoke]

11 minutes ago, coldie said:

Does Wales not exist anymore? 

Where?

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

UKMO has a runner SW at 96. Be interesting to see how that plays out.

You're a bit late, we're up to t144 already

[Cloud 10]

UKMO day 6 looks quite juicy in NH mode.

 

[frosty ground]

Just now, SLEETY said:

Yeah no good again, and where is the Northern blocking to bring this bitter weather from the East soon, should be at least signs of it now. 

If you referring to the metO 6-15 day forecast the hint is that’s a day 6 chart

[bluearmy]

Just now, Cloud 10 said:

UKMO day 6 looks quite juicy in NH mode.

 

It does - we are so close ..... anyway, KW’s Yorkshire snowline looks safe on ukmo 

[AmershamMike]

Talk about confusing....

[frosty ground]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It does - we are so close ..... anyway, KW’s Yorkshire snowline looks safe on ukmo 

Surely moving north based on that chart?

[warrenb]

1 minute ago, Cloud 10 said:

UKMO day 6 looks quite juicy in NH mode.

 

Absolutely agree. Pv in pieces. This is what we are looking for

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS 12z is colder than 06z.....t102 to t120....but don’t like what’s following, the LP is rounding up and will throw more milder air over the south.

T138 confirms that....but we won’t know which is right until that period it’s within t72

BFTP

 

 

Edited January 25, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[frosty ground]

Just now, AmershamMike said:

Talk about confusing....

Beauty is in the eye of holder 

[SLEETY]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

If you referring to the metO 6-15 day forecast the hint is that’s a day 6 chart

Actually it is their, if its correct. Would go on to show very cold air sinking South from the t144 chart I think. 

[kold weather]

Still more or less as expected on the models. Of course would want it south but this isnow the 2nd suite with very strong agreement between ukmo and GFS.

[shaky]

Gfs even worse at 126 hours!