Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jackski4]

Nervous times ahead. Praying for a great run!

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Nothing to with anyone else but England. 

Edit @Mapantz beat me to it.

That makes more sense, thank you

[Weathizard]

ICON does not look too good unfortunately 

[Updated_Weather]

5 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ICON does not look too good unfortunately 

Think people are more focused on Tuesday and a potential scandi block forming..let's get to the stage where the low forms which will be sunday/monday before making assumptions through late next week More changes to come.

[swfc]

Fantastic ridging threw the atlantic up towards Greenland and we still cant get them cold winds ete in on icon !!!

[Methuselah]

Well, whatever joys the 12Z might hold, Sidney has a very important message to impart:

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Johnp said:

Harsh, they're very good and not known for hyperbole.

Exactly what I am saying, you don't see them saying Tuesday event potential is a SNOWBOMB lol

[bluearmy]

Icon has had two opportunities to go all the way to ec solution on the trough next week .... it hasn’t .....

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Really? I disagree. They follow MetO output mostly.

Here is the GFSP for Tuesday, this is not screaming disruptive. Yes time for change regarding the PPN band but to tout disruptive, even for me with my bunch of straws, isn`t exciting me at the minute.

 

[SLEETY]

Let's hope the other models are better than the icons afternoon run. it nailed the easterly failure though didn't it last week. 

[SNMartyn]

2 hours ago, kold weather said:

Broadly snow to the north, snow-rain to the south. But that line is kinda just a line in the sand, kind of a best guesstimate based on where things are right at the moment and there is plenty of scope still for large changes.

And what model data do you have to back up this forecast? The MET office are saying the complete opposite. I will go with them I think.

[IDO]

We can see that the slowing of the Atlantic lows after D5 onwards why it is important to get embedded cold upper air in situ so we can keep a cold trough:

ICON T120-180  

The ICON really doesn't make it as good as we could...

 

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Stuie W said:

Here is the GFSP for Tuesday, this is not screaming disruptive. Yes time for change regarding the PPN band but to tout disruptive, even for me with my bunch of straws, isn`t exciting me at the minute.

 

Yeah the GFSP output isn't as good, but MetO use ECM and UKMO and GFS as there primary until GFSP takes over - IF ever lol,

like MetO said, we won't know more until the low has actually formed in 3 days.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Let's hope the other models are better than the icons afternoon run. it nailed the easterly failure though didn't it last week. 

ICON has always been meh, focused more on ECM and UKMO then GFS in my opinion

[Johnp]

4 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Here is the GFSP for Tuesday, this is not screaming disruptive. Yes time for change regarding the PPN band but to tout disruptive, even for me with my bunch of straws, isn`t exciting me at the minute.

 

They have received that information from the Met office chief forecaster but by all means use a test version of the GFS to belittle them.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Johnp

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Ok, good to know, thanks.

Thought you should know that as most things when they post screenshots or on their website.. it says in association with Met Office.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Updated_Weather

[mountain shadow]

22 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

ICON does not look too good unfortunately 

Doesn't look good for the South of England maybe, but still has plenty of snow opportunities North of the English Midlands into the North of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Central Ireland.

[Jackski4]

Guys, make love not war.

 

12z's are rolling out now. Surely that's more important?

[Derecho]

Hello, so just before the 12z's hit their stride, a brief update from moi.

It seems like next week is going to be on the cold side, more so earlier on next week but uncertainties about later. The key thing is how deep the lows become because as with the ECM, deep lows risk dislodging our cold air. Some snow events may occur, especially if lows disrupt but things are highly uncertain at the moment... a bit of a forecasters nightmare. Whether we get a very snowy spell or a mixed spell of weather is very much up in the air according to the swingometers. P7 gets it just right and leaves us well within the cold air.

 

Later on the swingometers are still uncertain at this point. No real clear signal is apparent. P7 still looks cold by Feb 5th.

 

Globally things look interesting again. Warm air between Greenland and NE Canada and Greenland is good to see. Would also like that cold building east to head our way please.

[tight isobar]

Will she follow the iso-gradient and head biscay-bound...and land in northern france???.gfs 12z looks good 4 it...!!!

[coldie]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Doesn't look good for the South of England maybe, but still has plenty of snow opportunities North of the English Midlands into the North of England, Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Central Ireland.

Does Wales not exist anymore? 

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

Will she follow the iso-gradient and head biscay-bound...and land in northern france???.gfs 12z looks good 4 it...!!!

Steady she goes.. Ease her in;)

[Methuselah]

Meanwhile, once folks have put down their handbags, Sunday may well see the start of some very interesting weather:

  

[snowice]

Here comes the snow at 84GFS

Edited January 25, 2019 by snowice

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, coldie said:

Does Wales not exist anymore? 

Not since 1301 unfortunately .