Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, P-M said:

 

Blue / Kold - you mention a snow line from Leeds across but nothing north or south of this?  As it stands is it just a line across the country in that area then?  I've read through the posts but can't seem to find one that tells me this so apologies in advance if this has already been explained. 

Broadly snow to the north, snow-rain to the south. But that line is kinda just a line in the sand, kind of a best guesstimate based on where things are right at the moment and there is plenty of scope still for large changes.

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, P-M said:

That chart is the 9th Feb though?  Don't get me wrong I certainly don't know enough to make a judgement it just seems like pulling teeth sometimes.  Anyway I hold on to some hope that things will change soon and in the meantime listen to you all debate the wheres and what ifs.  

 

Blue / Kold - you mention a snow line from Leeds across but nothing north or south of this?  As it stands is it just a line across the country in that area then?  I've read through the posts but can't seem to find one that tells me this so apologies in advance if this has already been explained. 

the snow line is the point at which the snow begins. So north of that line would be snow out of any precipitation and south would be rain (as far as settling is concerned and away from elevation). It’s not a border fence either!  Some of you who were old enough to remember will recall travelling up/down the motorway in the seventies/eighties and seeing the green change to white ..... that ‘line’ was sometimes quite persistent over a week or two 

changjng the subject, Home Counties mean maxes are the highest for quite some time in the extended eps period 

[P-M]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Broadly snow to the north, snow-rain to the south. But that line is kinda just a line in the sand, kind of a best guesstimate based on where things are right at the moment and there is plenty of scope still for large changes.

 

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

the snow line is the point at which the snow begins. So north of that line would be snow out of any precipitation and south would be rain (as far as settling is concerned and away from elevation). It’s not a border fence either!  Some of you who were old enough to remember will recall travelling up/down the motorway in the seventies/eighties and seeing the green change to white ..... that ‘line’ was sometimes quite persistent over a week or two 

changjng the subject, Home Counties mean maxes are the highest for quite some time in the extended eps period 

Thanks for explaining much appreciated   

[tight isobar]

27 minutes ago, kold weather said:

plenty of scope still for

A fare point of view.

Although the part of your post ^^above..

Is atm an-understatement.

@poss- large scale changes...

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Trom said:

 

Interesting height rises to the NE late in the GFS run (day 15 posted)

Could this finally be the impact of the SSW hitting the trop?  Will need to see if this sustains in future runs and whether it gains any cross model support once it comes into the ECM 10 day timeframe.  Thought it was worth posting given the reasonably bullish Met 6+ day forecast

I see charts like this and think 'wouldn't that be nice' then remember this time last week models had maxes for today generally around freezing or just above - its currently 14C, yes Fourteen degrees outside. Zero confidence in anything beyond 120hrs currently. 

[Timmytour]

29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the snow line is the point at which the snow begins.

Probably more apt to say the point at which the snow stops 

[Updated_Weather]

55 minutes ago, Stav said:

Sorry, I wouldn't. I don't see the point of a marginal snow even where everything disappears straight afterwards. Baan through them quite a few times - it is like instant, shallow gratification. I think in our hearts we all want an easterly set for a long time, with deep cold and regular snow.

I think people need to check out the MetO UKMO update, very interesting.. Still plugging the idea of very cold conditions and significant snow (at some point), fingers crossed.

But to me, it sounds quite simiar to last years Feb update.. We know what happened then!

[John88B]

A cold and possibly snowy week ahead for some and a massive upgrade on the met offices days 16 to 30 outlook. Things really could be a lot worse.

Edited January 25, 2019 by John88B

[Bruegelian]

Yes regarding medium range things looking good today, with the MetO update, JMA, CFS, all looking good. Let's hope the cold for this winter is like a lumbering giant, slow to arrive, but when it hits we'll know about it. 

[mb018538]

Dr Amy Butler has also pointed out regarding the nagging positive NAO and residual PV where we don't want it. It's not unheard of to have a positive NAO with a sharply negative AO, as the two more often than not go hand in hand....but just terribly frustrating on our part. The pieces just won't fall right thais year - yet. Still a good 4-6 weeks to get something memorable.

[Updated_Weather]

If we have some Essex folk in here, you'll like Essex Weather's Tweet - "Last of the mild weather today/tomorrow, won't be seeing double digits until mid-feb at least!"

- They have now tweeted *potential* for disruptive snow Tuesday/Tuesday night. Models need to be watched closesly.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Updated_Weather

[cheeky_monkey]

2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

If we have some Essex folk in here, you'll like Essex Weather's Tweet - "Last of the mild weather today/tomorrow, won't be seeing double digits until mid-feb at least!"

im from Essex..dosent really say much as average for this time of year is 5-7c anyway..so not seeing double digits is hardly unusual for late Jan/early Feb

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, cheeky_monkey said:

im from Essex..dosent really say much as average for this time of year is 5-7c anyway..so not seeing double digits is hardly unusual for late Jan/early Feb

It is since 2013.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, cheeky_monkey said:

im from Essex..dosent really say much as average for this time of year is 5-7c anyway..so not seeing double digits is hardly unusual for late Jan/early Feb

I am aware, but it won't be average.. Pretty much below is expected.

[Mucka]

A lot of conflicting signals today.

ECM and GFS ensembles have quite strongly moved away from cold and snow for next week for much of England and instead have much more significant milder sectors with rain and a wintry mix more likely though a good snow event is still possible, especially further North

If you take ECM Op on face value it offers very little opportunity for anything but transient wintriness with temps generally around 4/5C for the South rising to closer to 8/9C at turn of month there is however a lot of scatter with some colder options but overall the mean has lifted significantly as more less cold options appear in the ensemble suite.

It all depends on the track of the lows and how much they slide/disrupt SE as to how much the cold air gets mixed out.

This is where things get tricky because the MetO update overnight was positive and promoted the idea we would stay on the cold side with lows taking a more Southerly track than this mornings output.

I can't see this afternoons update yet but it will be an interesting read.

The GFS 06z is more in line with that forecast and keeps more cold air in place than the ECM which would increase chances of snow to low levels across England.

Beyond all this uncertainty of rain/sleet/snow there is still a signal for more blocking later in Feb but we have seen that most of Winter and just get pushed back.

I truly though we would see a decent Atlantic ridge first week of Feb that would have us in cold NE flow and slow the mobility but that is looking unlikely so looks like we are relying on these lows to dive S and keep us on the cold side rather than blow up and bring in milder Westerlies as per ECM for the foreseeable.

Let's hope this evenings output move back toward a colder pattern, especially ECM and its ensembles.

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

WWE TV  Netweather TV presents to you the biggest event of the year WrestleMania  SnowMania 35

The Main Event will be for the World Snow Championship

Northern Blocking (w- Netweather coldies) V Stubborn PV - Special Guest Referee - @tight isobar

In recent weeks some fans have been heard chanting "winters over" and "the writing is on the wall" and also fans causing disruption for Netweather chairman Paul and the General Managers - Mods , this began to increase after the failed attempt by Netweather Coldies to win the easterly championship which they looked like they were destined for before USA Snowstorm interfered in the match costing them the chance, this interference and resultant loss of Easterly title for Netweather Coldies even resulted in Netweather Hall of Famer and 10 time World Snow Championship winner @Steve Murr feeling despondent and taking a break, will he return and try to reclaim his title & can Northern Blocking put an end to these chants.

There will also be a Winter Rumble taking place and rumored entrants include - The Snow Shovels ,The Snow Ploughs, The Gritters, The Sliding lows and the biggest rumor is for the possible return of The Beast From The East - according to some inside sources he has said he will consider returning if his former tag team partner also makes a return - The Scandi High - who inside sources report is increasingly likely to make an appearance                     

another possible entrant is the heavy hitting Greenland high who's chances of winning should not be discounted    

Another thing that could help Northern Blocking win the World Snow Championship could be the chances of the Background Signal Champion MJO (and mentor to Northern Blocking) heading toward his 7th phase of his title reign 

   

Netweather Coldies picture the scene as Northern Blocking takes hold in the match and Special Guest Referee @tight isobar's hand goes toward the mat for the 3 count

1 @ BLOCKING

2 @ COLD

3 @ SNOW 

 

[tight isobar]

13 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

This will be nice for some to watch
 

 

A decent watch...

And the middle ground looks favoured as per -met..thus the track form eyeball into northern france...but with top edge..perhaps disruptive snow..mid/southern eng..and mid/southern wales....a far cry..from the quotes via some!!..

With saying that still subject 2 change of course...

With anything the 2nd more likely of larger swathes..northwards joining in..

Some great viewing over the nxt few days...

Enjoy the ride.

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Met4Cast]

Certainly worth keeping an eye on Tuesday night/Wednesday which has the potential to be the snowiest spell of the season so far. 

EC Det certainly at the more extreme end of possibilities 

GFS sends the low into France though forms a secondary low just to the SE of the region

 

UKMO similar to the GFS

So the ECM on it's own with a fully developed low, however ICON has a similar track but as a shallower feature, this would probably be ideal for ensuring less warm sector and an all snow event 

Certainly one to watch in the coming days!

[Weathizard]

I’m intrigued that the METO have included the lows directed towards the bay of biscay comment I’m not sure I’ve ever seen them put that in an update before, they must be getting a pretty strong signal between days 6-15 for them to say that IMO.

Looking at the models currently you’d be hard pressed to be that confident on that of where the lows are going, Key 12z model output coming up, got that feeling there might be a turn around soon.

[Paul]

Latest from Michael Fish

 

[Updated_Weather]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A decent watch...

And the middle ground looks favoured as per -met..thus the track form eyeball into northern france...but with top edge..perhaps disruptive snow..mid/southern eng..and mid/southern wales....a far cry..from the quotes via some!!..

With saying that still subject 2 change of course...

With anything the 2nd more likely of larger swathes..northwards joining in..

Some great viewing over the nxt few days...

Enjoy the ride.

Buckle up folks!

We begin the rollercoaster of a ride! Will it or won't it.

Also, regarding MetO cold weather alert which is at Level 2 for the UK, why isn't scotland included? Hm.

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Also, regarding MetO cold weather alert which is at Level 2 for the UK, why isn't scotland included? Hm.

Because the alerts are associated with Public Health England.

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z rolling.

I've not posted since last night, so what do I make of it all.  On the face of it 0z depressing (nothing new there), some promise in 6z runs, but I think all the models including ECM can't see the way forward.  

Taking all model runs, and comments by people on here, and factoring in the bullish Met Office forecasts for February, I find myself in the suddenly showing Scandi high camp now.  Think the Canadian vortex probably doesn't permit a Greenland high, and given 6 days into each model run the bits and pieces are in different places, as soon as there is a plausible evolution to a Scandi high, a model will eventually take it.  Will it be today? I don't know if it will happen at all, I just wouldn't be surprised if it is a scenario that does take hold today or tomorrow.

Edit much prefer ICON 12z T120 compared to 0z at T132, 12z first

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Updated_Weather]

2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Because the alerts are associated with Public Health England.

I thought so

[Mr Frost]

14 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Buckle up folks!

We begin the rollercoaster of a ride! Will it or won't it.

Also, regarding MetO cold weather alert which is at Level 2 for the UK, why isn't scotland included? Hm.

Nothing to do with anyone else but England. 

Edit @Mapantz beat me to it.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mr Frost