Cold hunt - models and chat

[FetchCB]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

 Too early to get excited, but chances?

Agreed....with the way the models are atm .... Risk of light snow with a few favoured places seeing heavy snow but equally a risk of rain and a risk of it being dry....

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, FetchCB said:

As far as I'm aware the knowledgeable on here have always said the end of Jan beginning of Feb for the responses of the "positive background signals" to be actually felt. The issue has been the way the models have processed those "positive background signals" and output extreme weather charts since Mid December raising unrealistic expectations

Unfortunately too many people have blindly been ramping to kingdom come when really the synoptics were really never there in the first place for it. I think that is why we now have this general feeling of apathy. There are still some that I'd describe as hopecasting (I think Nick F also picked up that point) but we can all live in hope. Too much hope however can blind reality. I remember getting butchered this time last week for being over critical/negative about the easterly, but it was just I didn't have the blinders on and could see it wasn't going to work out. Bluearmy was there a few days earlier than even I was.

Its only really been since mid January as others have said that the pieces have been vaguely in our favour.

IDO - Yes there is certainly some interesting signs. The ECM ensembles are real mixed as well. There are a couple of fruitcake runs (my favourite ends Thursday with 19 inches near Bath and 12z inches across a huge swathe of the south  )

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Methuselah]

To be or not to be? All looks good, on the FV3!

 

[snowice]

Have a feeling the 12z will be better. One run in this complex setup won't settle it.Fv3 and 06z are better so fingers crossed! 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Typically when looking at precipitation type charts, if you want to approximate accumulations, normally 10mm of rain accumulating corresponds to 100mm of snowfall accumulation. So a ratio of snow 10:1 rain, therefore 10mm corresponds to 10cm of snowfall. This is ratio can vary however depending on air mass and direction of wind.

[tight isobar]

Drop into the met o..long ranger..

Stunning prognosis..

And ive put this post in here because its model related..in the fact the met also see..southerly tracking lps...into the biscay region..early in the forecast..

 

So clearly as we stand..there may have been FAR TO MANY early assumtions this morn !!!!

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[Chesil View]

9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Drop into the met o..long ranger..

Stunning prognosis..

And ive put this post in here because its model related..in the fact the met also see..southerly tracking lps...into the biscay region..early in the forecast..

 

So clearly as we stand..there may have been FAR TO MANY early assumtions this morn !!!!

Indeed it's a corker  TI. And reflective of extended modelling as far as I can see with a drop of SSW tdoen welling thrown in for good measure.

[Skullzrulerz]

30 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup took off the easterly then the rest followed immediately after

So we really need the ECM to start going the ways of the GFS but who knows 

[Mr Frost]

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Drop into the met o..long ranger..

Stunning prognosis..

And ive put this post in here because its model related..in the fact the met also see..southerly tracking lps...into the biscay region..early in the forecast..

 

So clearly as we stand..there may have been FAR TO MANY early assumtions this morn !!!!

Yes it’s an absolute stonkersaurasrex for folk in the South - in the medium/long term it looks as though it might be myself who is building a sandman in the end! 

Short term though still looking great. 

Bring on the snowwwwwwww for all the UK and Ireland!

Edited January 25, 2019 by Mr Frost

[mountain shadow]

30 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Clear to see how everyone's expectations vary massively reading through this thread this morning. I'm pretty sure many in the South would bank what's showing for Tues/Weds regardless of what happens after.

It was ever thus in here. If it's not snowing "In My Back Garden" it doesn't count.

There will be much wailing and gnashing of teeth in here next week as the sliders come in as some get inches of snow but ten miles South is pouring rain.

 

[Shunter]

34 minutes ago, mathematician said:

The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.

First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...

then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.

Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

Yes I think your statement sums up Winter 18/19 very well. The absence of “knowledgable” posters as of late would seem to endorse these comments also. Ive been on here since 2004 and can count the number of succesfully “counted downl  snowy  synoptics on one hand.

Dozens of signals all over the place but ive not seen one yet that can be relied on to deliver the goods in the reliable timeframe. Yes they may increase “potential” and “probability” but thats it.

Global weather science is fluid and has infinite outcomes. How hard we try i still think we are just scratching the surface of  our understanding at this time.

Anyway back to the here and now and with Tropospheric propagation about to develop in a favourable MJO, Tropical Forcing, +MT, EAMT, Solar minimum environment, if the HLB fails to build and hold back the rampant Jetstream in the next 7 days, I for one will be switching off signalling and leaving any late winter / early spring snowy fruitfulness down to chance. 

[Frosty.]

Best update yet..and as i said on previous page, the most wintry spell so far this winter is on the way next week..of course there are going to be model wobbles along the way but I have a very good feeling about the rest of this winter..and early spring too!

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Yes it’s an absolute stonkersaurasrex for folk in the South - in the medium/long term it looks as though it might be myself who is building a sandman in the end! 

Short term though still looking great. 

Bring on the snowwwwwwww for all the UK and Ireland!

Not impossible that you maybe too far north up there, but that's the trade off for having 85-90% confidence of remaining in the cold throughout I suppose. Typically the models do shift south with these systems, though I note the LP on Sunday has actually become progressively more north and stronger....and it first appeared about 120hrs before hand...so for that LP over France/channel, that maybe something to think about...

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Trom]

 

Interesting height rises to the NE late in the GFS run (day 15 posted)

Could this finally be the impact of the SSW hitting the trop?  Will need to see if this sustains in future runs and whether it gains any cross model support once it comes into the ECM 10 day timeframe.  Thought it was worth posting given the reasonably bullish Met 6+ day forecast

[Stav]

41 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Clear to see how everyone's expectations vary massively reading through this thread this morning. I'm pretty sure many in the South would bank what's showing for Tues/Weds regardless of what happens after.

Sorry, I wouldn't. I don't see the point of a marginal snow event where everything disappears straight afterwards. Been through them quite a few times - it is like instant, shallow gratification. I think in our hearts we all want an easterly set for a long time, with deep cold and regular snow.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Stav

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Trom said:

 

Interesting height rises to the NE late in the GFS run (day 15 posted)

Could this finally be the impact of the SSW hitting the trop?  Will need to see if this sustains in future runs and whether it gains any cross model support once it comes into the ECM 10 day timeframe.  Thought it was worth posting given the reasonably bullish Met 6+ day forecast

That chart you posted Trom ties in very well with wording of of Meto extended forecast.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Stav said:

Sorry, I wouldn't. I don't see the point of a marginal snow even where everything disappears straight afterwards. Baan through them quite a few times - it is like instant, shallow gratification. I think in our hearts we all want an easterly set for a long time, with deep cold and regular snow.

I doubt very much that, with uppers of around -6C, lying snow will vanish all that quickly...IMO, hard overnight frosts and freezing fog are far more likely...?

[Scandinavian High.]

I think we are going to move very quickly over next few days and coming week as start picking up a signal high pressure building over Scandinavia with bitter easterly flow and to add lows to south west of uk bringing heavy snow falls south and south west uk...

[P-M]

1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

I think we are going to move very quickly over next few days and coming week as start picking up a signal high pressure building over Scandinavia with bitter easterly flow and to add lows to south west of uk bringing heavy snow falls south and south west uk...

It's always 5+ days away though.  Even my optimism is beginning to wane after shouting from the rooftops about potentials.  Genuine question - what makes you think this?  Is anything actually nailed on yet?

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

 

Bluearmy, I've drawn my line from broadly Leeds across for the pure snow line. Not a bad idea to have a point from which to move around.

 

Broadly agree - good place to start - if you start too optimistically then you are likely adjusting way north from the start and not getting a trend as early as you could 

[Scandinavian High.]

3 minutes ago, P-M said:

It's always 5+ days away though.  Even my optimism is beginning to wane after shouting from the rooftops about potentials.  Genuine question - what makes you think this?  Is anything actually nailed on yet?

 

6 minutes ago, P-M said:

It's always 5+ days away though.  Even my optimism is beginning to wane after shouting from the rooftops about potentials.  Genuine question - what makes you think this?  Is anything actually nailed on yet?

Just how I see things unfolding where I’m sat I see models starting to pick up on the signal I no the chart is long way of but we have to start somewhere also exeter seem to be upgrading that outcome ?

[P-M]

8 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

 

Just how I see things unfolding where I’m sat I see models starting to pick up on the signal I no the chart is long way of but we have to start somewhere also exeter seem to be upgrading that outcome ?

That chart is the 9th Feb though?  Don't get me wrong I certainly don't know enough to make a judgement it just seems like pulling teeth sometimes.  Anyway I hold on to some hope that things will change soon and in the meantime watch as you all debate the wheres and what ifs.  

 

Blue / Kold - you mention a snow line from Leeds across but nothing north or south of this?  As it stands is it just a line across the country in that area then?  I've read through the posts but can't seem to find one that tells me this so apologies in advance if this has already been explained. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by P-M

[Man With Beard]

34 minutes ago, Trom said:

 

Interesting height rises to the NE late in the GFS run (day 15 posted)

Could this finally be the impact of the SSW hitting the trop?  Will need to see if this sustains in future runs and whether it gains any cross model support once it comes into the ECM 10 day timeframe.  Thought it was worth posting given the reasonably bullish Met 6+ day forecast

On the ECM ensembles, there are a fair few members like this, but far too much scatter in where any blocking will end up to be sure of a cold outcome for the UK just yet. 

[Matty88]

47 minutes ago, Trom said:

 

Interesting height rises to the NE late in the GFS run (day 15 posted)

Could this finally be the impact of the SSW hitting the trop?  Will need to see if this sustains in future runs and whether it gains any cross model support once it comes into the ECM 10 day timeframe.  Thought it was worth posting given the reasonably bullish Met 6+ day forecast

I'm looking forward to April/May when we can move on from all this SSW hitting the trop or 'Downwelling Progression', Nobody on here really know whether this is or will have an effect. There should be a separate thread for those that want to have a guess at that game! 

Anyway, the 06z run is a classic Jan/Feb set up of cold to the north with mild to the south trying to push up - can guarantee none of the charts have a true grasp of the exact low location/strength of the low, but if the southerly track of the jet wins out expect some classic big snow falls for many next week - nobody can post on here with any confidence where that snow line will be at this stage - it could be from Scotland to Lands End!! 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.. There is a separate thread purely for it, And there is nothing wrong with discussing it in here against the Model runs.

[Danielvn]

1 hour ago, mathematician said:

The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.

First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...

then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.

Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

Errr that has been snow this year in Western areas and further south than in a lot of previous winters. It's hardly a 0. I think people need to stop being so IMBY.