Cold hunt - models and chat

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM has a beautiful widespread snow risk Wednesday/Thursday

Highly likely to change given the lead time but it does show the continued snow risks just about anywhere going forward. It might not be a "deep cold spell" with widespread blizzards but it's certainly an interesting time with many areas likely to see snowfall at some point or another

I would bank that in a heartbeat, heavy snow for a large part of southern England for a few hours? Amazing.

[Updated_Weather]

Met Office now showing snow most of Tuesday on the app - not taking it as gospel but it’s nice they see potential

 

- in London btw

Edited January 25, 2019 by Updated_Weather

[AmershamMike]

11 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

ECM has a beautiful widespread snow risk Wednesday/Thursday

Highly likely to change given the lead time but it does show the continued snow risks just about anywhere going forward. It might not be a "deep cold spell" with widespread blizzards but it's certainly an interesting time with many areas likely to see snowfall at some point or another

Is that depth of snow or rain equivalent? Thanks

[Met4Cast]

Just now, AmershamMike said:

Is that depth of snow or rain equivalent? Thanks

This is purely precipitation type, it doesn't show accumulations

[frosty ground]

Whilst day 6-7 could bring any type of weather the long term trend is away from 850's that support snow (its a big shift) supported by more south westerly flow
 

[tight isobar]

20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s not all about Scotland ya know . This forum is so Scottish bias.

The crazy thing is..as we are progressing..the m4 corridor-and below COULD SEE some eye watering snow accums..

Lol...ya couldnt make it up.

But the charge is deff-there for that possible prog!!..

On we go...

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[shaky]

Defo much better set of ensembles between days 6 to 10 low further south and 850s lower!!hopefully we can build on it!

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, AmershamMike said:

Is that depth of snow or rain equivalent? Thanks

Accumulations are widely above 4 inches, most is in S.wales around 10-12 inches, central S. England also gets about 8-10 inches,

However that is IMO very much on the extreme end of what is likely, most ensembles don't go anywhere near that high!

Frosty, where are those ensembles for?

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[MattStoke]

Nice little snow event for the south and the Midlands next Thursday, according to the GFSP. Low pressure system moving in. 850 hpa temps around -6, surface level temperatures and dew points below freezing, 0 isotherm and wet bulb levels down to 0 m. Shame the track of that system will change a dozen or so times between now and then.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Accumulations are widely above 4 inches, most is in S.wales around 10-12 inches, central S. England also gets about 8-10 inches,

However that is IMO very much on the extreme end of what is likely, most ensembles don't go anywhere near that high!

Yeh i dont expect ecm to repeat that again but then again it is the king of all models!!

[Disco_Stu]

Yes  once again some nice looking charts, but are these just cherry picked charts from one run again? My money is on lots of sleet/cold rain coming next week. 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Nice little snow event for the south and the Midlands next Thursday, according to the GFSP. Low pressure system moving in. 850 hpa temps around -6, surface level temperatures and dew points below freezing, 0 isotherm and wet bulb levels down to 0 m. Shame the track of that system will change a dozen or so times between now and then.

Yep, broadly about 5-10cms from that.

Anyway this is IMO quite a large test for the Para, its really being quite stubborn with its outlook whilst the other models have to most extents fallen inline with the ECM. Lets hope for once its right, not been all that impressed with it thus far.

PS, ensembles are becoming more and more aggressive on northern blocking, especially in the Scandinavian region post 300hrs, mean MAY turn easterly at some point in the near future if that trend continues, its not that far away even on the 06z.

[Johnp]

Just now, kold weather said:

Yep, broadly about 5-10cms from that.

Anyway this is IMO quite a large test for the Para, its really being quite stubborn with its outlook whilst the other models have to most extents fallen inline with the ECM. Lets hope for once its right, not been all that impressed with it thus far.

PS, ensembles are becoming more and more aggressive on northern blocking, especially in the Scandinavian region post 300hrs, mean MAY turn easterly at some point in the near future if that trend continues, its not that far away even on the 06z.

Where are you getting these snow depths from that you keep mentioning?

[bluearmy]

Pretty pointless looking for ‘snow events’ in the current modelling - it’s going to change every six hours ... the positioning of runners is completely a pin the tail on the donkey job - safest bet is pick a latitude for the snow line , step back and watch it fluctuate north and south, every twelve hours (ignore the 06z and 18z as you don’t have other output away from ncep to work with unless within day 5 )

that will give you an idea of the direction of travel 

 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, broadly about 5-10cms from that.

Anyway this is IMO quite a large test for the Para, its really being quite stubborn with its outlook whilst the other models have to most extents fallen inline with the ECM. Lets hope for once its right, not been all that impressed with it thus far.

PS, ensembles are becoming more and more aggressive on northern blocking, especially in the Scandinavian region post 300hrs, mean MAY turn easterly at some point in the near future if that trend continues, its not that far away even on the 06z.

Not sure any model has fallen in line with any other........ The facts are there is an envelope of conditions that are still on the table.

[mathematician]

The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.

First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...

then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.

Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

Edited January 25, 2019 by Polar Maritime
Why bother posting in this thread then.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean suggests our coldest spell of the winter so far developing next week..could be worse couldn't it!

[MP-R]

1 minute ago, mathematician said:

The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.

First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...

then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.

Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

This kind of post has appeared time and time again over the last few weeks. Yes - this winter has been largely trash, but nothing special was ever going to happen in December, it just wasn't. We came very close to an easterly mid month but even that wouldn't have lasted more than a few days. It's only really since the actual warming, and more so since midmonth that things have been dragging, and I would've expected us to be much further than we are by now. These current conditions are reminding me somewhat of January 2015.

Still time though, just.

[cobbett]

Flippin eck - may need to work from home Tuesday... but bet I’ll just need the brolly 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, mathematician said:

 

Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

I'm guessing you haven't lived through that many bad winters? As much as this winter has been a little meh here so far, not every winter is going to have a gangbusters event such as Feb 18, etc. So far its been a fairly standard milder than average winter. I wouldn't say its been terrible, there have been some decnt frosty periods, and some bad 0/10 type winters didn't even manage that. (I think December 97 or maybe 98 didn't have a single ground frost all month!)

Bluearmy, I've drawn my line from broadly Leeds across for the pure snow line. Not a bad idea to have a point from which to move around.

PS - developing El ninos usually are back loaded, they typically don't have great Decembers because the jet normally runs a little too hard in that time, Feb tends to be the best month in El Nino winters. (though technically, this has been neutral).

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[Skullzrulerz]

19 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh i dont expect ecm to repeat that again but then again it is the king of all models!!

The king of models you say the same king that took off the Easterly and was then dethroned 

Okay then 

[FetchCB]

3 minutes ago, mathematician said:

The reason why people are very disappointed at this winter is because we have been promised Narnia and tons of snow with alle the "positive background signals" for months.

First it should have been early December...then 'wait it's going to be mid-December'....then 'be patient and we will have a white Christmas'...

then it was 'ok nothing has happened yet but mid January for sure!'...then 'well ok, but from the 26th of January on it will be memorable!'...now it's going to be 10th of February. Then it will be the end of February and soon the winter will be over.

Let's be frank here, like it or not on a scale of 1 to 10 this winter has been a 0. And it looks like nothing is going to change anytime soon. Time to move on I suppose...

As far as I'm aware the knowledgeable on here have always said the end of Jan beginning of Feb for the responses of the "positive background signals" to be actually felt. The issue has been the way the models have processed those "positive background signals" and output extreme weather charts since Mid December raising unrealistic expectations

[IDO]

This is the mean for the GEFS at T108, Tuesday evening:

There are many GEFS supporting snow for the south, a few rain and amounts vary. Too early to get excited, but chances?

[shaky]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

The king of models you say the same king that took off the Easterly and was then dethroned 

Okay then 

Yup took off the easterly then the rest followed immediately after

[MidnightSnow]

Clear to see how everyone's expectations vary massively reading through this thread this morning. I'm pretty sure many in the South would bank what's showing for Tues/Weds regardless of what happens after.