Cold hunt - models and chat

[IDO]

Looking at the bigger picture and we see shifting sands of change:

0z06z>>>

With such change within the D10 corridor then we can be hopeful of better runs to come...

[ALL ABOARD]

Definer signs of the downwelling by 240 as low pressure begins to meander around. 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

I won't be looking into until T+6 hours and I can see it on live surface pressure charts.. THATS how you call it

I'd probably suggest we will have a lock on what will happen once we start to see this low forming, once it forms if its still along the lines of the current models, that will be a lock...of course not to say it WILL form like that and that's where changes happen. Formation should start to occur by tomorrow night, so we will almost certainly know for good or for ill at that point. Until that point there is room for some manoeuvre, though all the models are now broadly in agreement with location, strength and angle still looks a little bit up for debate.

IDO - this is a vastly better run in terms of long term prospects, the PV placement COULD be good for eventually allowing a Scandi high to come into place, worth watching IMO.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[ALL ABOARD]

She's against the ropes.. 

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'd probably suggest we will have a lock on what will happen once we start to see this low forming, once it forms if its still along the lines of the current models, that will be a lock...of course not to say it WILL form like that and that's where changes happen. Formation should start to occur by tomorrow night, so we will almost certainly know for good or for ill at that point. Until that point there is room for some manoeuvre, though all the models are now broadly in agreement with location, strength and angle still looks a little bit up for debate.

Ive seen FAR to many of these -supposed- nailed track and grade-systems.to be convinced that we are even 60% on the money!!..(@ this point in time)

Again feel free to flag this very post up come mid-weekend....and 'quote me'.

The book is open..and clearly some will read the chapters differently.

Edited January 25, 2019 by tight isobar

[turkishfella]

This is for Brighton (southeast England) for example. It shows the classic pattern which is rainy when it's milder and then blue skies when it's colder. I'm sick and tired of chasing the cold and precipitation at the same time really. Every week we hear that next week's gonna be cold and potentially snowy, then this classic picture happens. Not reading or watching the weather studio anymore!!!

[cheshire snow]

8 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

She's against the ropes.. 

Just need the knock out blow now......but will it be a jab to the chin or a massive left hook

C.S

[ALL ABOARD]

Feels like the longest chase in history waiting for the reversal to appear. 

But here it is. 

What is evident as was pointed out earlier in the year is there is going to be enough energy left in the PV to have low pressure systems sliding under the block. 

Win win? 

Also prevents the dreaded West based NAO

Edited January 25, 2019 by ALL ABOARD

[Mr Frost]

Fantastic GFS 6z run so far IMBY and many others! 

Just look at some of these snow charts for next week - I will need a shovel if they verify! 

Plus for all those glass half empty members - remember you can always build a sandman if you miss out. 

 

[Chesil View]

just been into the model tweets thread and seen the words Chris Fawkes and snowmageddon in the same paragraph and nearly fell off my chair LOL

Edited January 25, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Jackski4]

GFS PARA should be rolling soon if I'm not mistaken?

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Fantastic GFS 6z run so far IMBY and many others! 

Just look at some of these snow charts for next week - I will need a shovel if they verify! 

Plus for all those glass half empty members - remember you can always build a sandman if you miss out. 

Good idea, I'll send you my sandman photo from Porthcawl, South Wales in between the wind and rain next week

[tight isobar]

8 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

just been into the model tweets thread and seen the words Chris Fawkes and snowmageddon in the same paragraph and nearly fell off my chair LOL

Yes.

Some may want to view that tweet..

And the words/england/wales..

And also note the LPS placement on the stills!!!.

Its been quite ridiculous @times this morn...with people stating game over...and exact geographical pin pointing of imby-events.

 

[Methuselah]

Looks like another 16-days on the cold side of the jet:

 

But, as for the M4 GEFS T850 ensemble? It's all over the shop! 

[edinburgh_1992]

17 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Fantastic GFS 6z run so far IMBY and many others! 

Just look at some of these snow charts for next week - I will need a shovel if they verify! 

Plus for all those glass half empty members - remember you can always build a sandman if you miss out. 

 

Lovely GFS run, snow showers moving much further east on the gfs06 compared to the 00. In the Lothians we can also get snow from north-westerlies, it's rare, but it happened last year with proper blizzards. On Tuesday we also had a good hour of snow when it wasn't even expected

[kold weather]

Well still plenty of potential on the GFS ensembles, especially for the north (much less so for the south, but still a few that would do the job for sure).

Most runs have at least something to watch out for, be it an earlier low through the channel/South of England, or the advertised Wdenesday/Thursday low that comes through.

It all looks abit of a forecasters nightmare to me, and relatively small shifts makes the difference between places like the Midlands getting blizzards, and getting heavy rain.

[Ice Day]

Quick one from me, but the GFSP 6z is a dream (sorry, can't post charts).

[shaky]

Gfs para beautiful up to 192 hours!!snowy widely!!

[mulzy]

FWIW the 6z GEFS have trended a little colder in day 6-8 range.

[kold weather]

Also, one last note, a few of the GFS ensembles really do blow this up over the UK, not impossible that we get a decent storm out of this IF we do get phasing upstream.

GFS ensembles broadly are supporting the general snow line the GFS op has (roughly N.Midlands) but there is still considerable variety in the outcomes, though better agreement on the broad double barrel low.

[edinburgh_1992]

Long term has consistently been looking too mild for my liking. Hopefully that will change though, fingers crossed. 

Monday looking very good for snow showers up north, possibly moving east as well. GFS P and gfs06 both showing quite consistent snow showers even over the Lothians. 

[kumquat]

6Z Para looking v nice

168

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Long term has consistently been looking too mild for my liking. Hopefully that will change though, fingers crossed. 

Monday looking very good for snow showers up north, possibly moving east as well. GFS P and gfs06 both showing quite consistent snow showers even over the Lothians. 

It’s not all about Scotland ya know . This forum is so Scottish bias.

[Met4Cast]

ECM has a beautiful widespread snow risk Wednesday/Thursday

Highly likely to change given the lead time but it does show the continued snow risks just about anywhere going forward. It might not be a "deep cold spell" with widespread blizzards but it's certainly an interesting time with many areas likely to see snowfall at some point or another

[kold weather]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

FWIW the 6z GEFS have trended a little colder in day 6-8 range.

Yeah more of them are kicking the LP away to the east quicker which allows us to pull back in colder air thanks to the circulation still being strong enough at the time. Its a good step forward for sure.

Still got some ensembles showing some heavy snow for the south for Tuesday as well...aka ECM 00z.

As for Wednesday, I'd say just 20-30% are cold enough for snow in the south (even for front edge snow odds aren't much better), those odds rise rapidly once north of the Midlands, to something around 90% for Scotland.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather