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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
  • Weather Preferences: Severe weather enthusiast
  • Location: South Gloucestershire BS35
10 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Apologies to everyone because at the moment the output isn't going as I expected especially with regards to the low pressure. I fully expected this to clear SE rather than hang around like a bad smell. So sorry if I mislead anyone.

Still on a positive note +384 only takes us to the 10th Feb. My expectations are lower than some on here. For example if say mid Feb we had a decent 7 day cold spell with ice days and snowfall then I personally would be happy with that. The winter of Jan 87 was mainly mild/unsettled but still remember than winter fondly due to the 7 day cold spell in Jan.

Still looking at the scatter from the 1st Feb im not going to throw the towel in on this current period.

t850Cambridgeshire.png

No need to apologise. The very nature of meteorology is chaotic and frankly any interpretation and opinion of current model output is welcome. There will always be changes in output and being the UK where it is, tiny changes can significantly alter our near term forecast, never mind 5-10 days down the line.

Edited by Chris K
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Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos

Out to 120 on all models there is much to  be pleased about; snow chances for everyone.

Beyond that is lala land.

ECH1-120.GIF

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
1 hour ago, Stonethecrows said:

I'm gonna take this as reverse psychology as i can't fathom any other explanation why you'd need to post it in a "hunt for cold" thread

In any hunt it's as important to be told where the object you are looking for won't be found, as it is to be told where it might be found

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Dear me!...models don't look that brilliant this morning, I know I'm not particularly helping anyone or showing any guidance to back this up but it really is a case of model fatigue now. Been chasing rainbows for the last 2 months or so.

Nice to have seen a brief flutter of snow yesterday and some recent air frosts but this really should be the norm in January.

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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

So people writing off winter have been rewarded with a snow event in the SE! See how quickly things can change in a short space of time!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GFS op only run not to show something edging into the Southern half of the country on Tuesday-Wednesday and instead develops it over France. It does eventally squeeze into the very far SE (Kent).

Anyways here comes the key period on the 06z GFS, doubt its going to be that different but we will see!

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

So here we are, then...UK firmly on the cold side of a NW-SE aligned PFJ? Disaster!

image.thumb.png.10d8037aa97a189f4e37d97ce08f23f8.png Goes away and scratches noddle!

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Looking through the model output, which shows several snow chances even for the south in the short to mid term, leaves me wondering, yet again, where on Earth the down beat comments from some posters have come from. Presumably it’s because further ahead some milder charts are showing. Yet when cold charts show at that range, those same people moan that it’s so far away and won’t happen. *Sigh*.

I think it's always worth tempering expectations a little in such a high risk / knife edge potential for snow in what is always going to be marginal set-ups for snow in the northwesterly flow away from Scotland and higher ground further south. I think using a continually optimistic stance, is becoming a little too well-worn this winter, so I entirely understand the frustration on here this morning when GFS and EC are throwing up milder solutions in the medium range, because when they do, they are probably more likely than the northeasterly or easterly freeze ups they have been showing given the current set-up over higher latitudes and persistent Canadian TPV which will continue to generate lows over the NW Atlantic which will ultimately head our way. 

Yes it could be worse, it's going to be cold, but not exceptionally so, certainly not any severe cold on the horizon, there certainly will be snow events, but marginal to who gets snow and if it does settle, unless we get the northwesterly wind to slacken and/or  ridge to develop, the snow won't stick given temps away from Scotland/high ground likely to be a little too high during daytime. 

Back to the 06z GFS, the low EC has cutting across the south on Tuesday bringing snow on its northern flank across southern Britain is quite bit further south into France on GFS, but it still has a wave running along southern counties which could produce something, then there's always the wintry showers in the keen northwesterly flow

overview_20190125_06.thumb.jpg.74bc8adf6473cd07713d0a816fdeb59d.jpgoverview_20190125_06_108.thumb.jpg.e12b0cd75cd4ecda304bd007c624f2ac.jpg

Edited by Nick F
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-114.png?6

Low heights to our north this is gonna blow that incoming low up like a balloon.

Yeah, although there is some lower heights edging SE which maybe a good sign?

Still with the dominant lower heights further west, any LP will arch positively and draw in a SW ahead of it regardless of whether it does blow up or not.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-114.png?6

Low heights to our north this is gonna blow that incoming low up like a balloon.

We'll see..but why overlook the increased snow chances-even to lower levels -south b4 we get there????

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 minute ago, TomW said:

So people writing off winter have been rewarded with a snow event in the SE! See how quickly things can change in a short space of time!

Lets not over exaggerate that, I'd say a minority of people saw snow in the south east, some people in the north and north west of london and parts of the city (particularly high ground) did see some snow to varying depths...I saw some very brief snow yesterday which left a dusting (for half an hour) and what I gather was defo in the minority!

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Posted
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.
  • Location: Saltdean,Nr Brighton,East Sussex,Hither Green,SE London.

Surely what has just happened in the last few days cold and snow wise and what is due to happen between Sunday and Thursday is pretty good for a UK winter?

We can all hold up glorious memories of winters past, but how many fell into the 47,63,87,categories?

If you are sad at what's on offer at this table ( a nice supper at your 'decent' local restaurant,2019) and are after ( Supper at the Savoy, 1947) try living through winter 1987/1988 ( Supper with food poisoning at the roadside cafe).

Edited by sunnijim
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

The formation of the LPs are about as bad as it gives for snow coming in from the Atlantic for the south at least, won't even get leading edge snow I'd have though based on the GFS 06z.

I think us southerners will need to keep an eye with whatever might develop near France/Channel on Mon-Tues rather than worry about this big low, not happening down here.

However the low does look ok in terms of placement for more northern locales, especially Scotland on this run.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
3 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Lets not over exaggerate that, I'd say a minority of people saw snow in the south east, some people in the north and north west of london and parts of the city (particularly high ground) did see some snow to varying depths...I saw some very brief snow yesterday which left a dusting (for half an hour) and what I gather was defo in the minority!

Anything showing in the current outlook looks better than what we had around Xmas and just after with a stubborn high that would not move at least the weather is turning more mobile which will always give us a better chance further into February it’s far from over this winter!

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Th4 formation of the LPs are about as bad as it gives for snow coming in from the Atlantic for the south at least, won't even get leading edge snow I'd have though based on the GFS 06z.

However the low does look ok in terms of placement for more northern locales, especially Scotland on this run.

Straight through Sheffield 
Or maybe Birmingham
144-779UK.GIF?25-6

Edited by frosty ground
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