Cold hunt - models and chat

[nick sussex]

The blown up low at day 6 is essentially game over .

All along it was crucial to get a shallow feature to the se of the UK.

Regardless of any snow chances earlier which are still to be nailed down because of the earlier disagreements the big 3 ops at day 6 don’t make pleasant viewing .

A slowly filling low stuck over the UK with the cold blown away from the east by the track and depth of the low earlier.

Unless the models weaken that low and improve its track then there’s no point trying to make a Michelin dinner out of spam and eggs !

In terms of pre the low tragedy the ECM has that low in the Channel but these types of features are very difficult to nail down at this timeframe .

Overall a very disappointing start to the day . And we have to hope that they’ve modeled the upstream low wrongly between day 5 and 6.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS continue to show promise.  Northern heights all over the place with a shallow trough over Europe.

Yeah so pretty positive sign. I've been keen on northern blocking between 1/5 and 10th of February for a while now and I still think that will happen. 

Of course the biggest problem might just be that isn't much cold to tap into. Northern block and is not good but there isn't a hint of -5 anywhere to be found. However it's still far from winter over and you do have to be in it to win it so to speak.

Edited January 25, 2019 by kold weather

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Ext EPS continue to show promise.  Northern heights all over the place with a shallow trough over Europe.

Thats a positive Mulzy

TBH the det looks milder than themean by as early as day 3 to my eyes?

The graph form will perhaps reveal more..

[Scandinavian High.]

Game over really I’m confused now all very good for next week lots of changes to come I wouldn’t get hung up on every model run..

[chris55]

1 minute ago, snow mad said:

I would love that to be right but there seems to be a disconnect between how we are reading the charts in here, as I’ve been using a weather app which shows only rain from this and all winter it’s been more accurate than most interpretations on here. Not a dig just an observation.

If only it was that simple.

Raw data used on apps change from hour to hour depending on what time it is and which raw data set they use. 

Raw data should be accurate at days 1-2-3 but beyond this they will change often.

Next weeks details are no where near being settled, with all the data available human interpretation is crucial to narrow down the options. So a snow symbol (or a rain) on an App may be nice to look at, but at range it’s pretty useless (unless there is a very definite we’ll modelled pattern/pattern change coming)

The low on ECM is one OP run, unless it becomes consistently shown and has support from other models, then it really means nothing in terms of a meaningful forecast, though it does show what is possible in the projected pattern.

[JoeShmoe]

Meanwhile North America is going into deep freeze in the next 10 days as a love of the PV drops over the northern states - which i fear will add to any powered up jet over the Atlantic in due course

[nick sussex]

Just now, abbie123 said:

Game over really I’m confused now all very good for next week lots of changes to come I wouldn’t get hung up on every model run..

Not game over for winter but in these set ups it’s crucial to get the pattern sufficiently se with a weaker low . 

[Stuie]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The blown up low at day 6 is essentially game over .

All along it was crucial to get a shallow feature to the se of the UK.

Regardless of any snow chances earlier which are still to be nailed down because of the earlier disagreements the big 3 ops at day 6 don’t make pleasant viewing .

A slowly filling low stuck over the UK with the cold blown away from the east by the track and depth of the low earlier.

Unless the models weaken that low and improve its track then there’s no point trying to make a Michelin dinner out of spam and eggs !

In terms of pre the low tragedy the ECM has that low in the Channel but these types of features are very difficult to nail down at this timeframe .

Overall a very disappointing start to the day . And we have to hope that they’ve modeled the upstream low wrongly between day 5 and 6.

I wouldn`t start worrying yet Nick, when was the last time a 965 LP verified at day 6? 

[Chris101]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The blown up low at day 6 is essentially game over .

All along it was crucial to get a shallow feature to the se of the UK.

Regardless of any snow chances earlier which are still to be nailed down because of the earlier disagreements the big 3 ops at day 6 don’t make pleasant viewing .

A slowly filling low stuck over the UK with the cold blown away from the east by the track and depth of the low earlier.

Unless the models weaken that low and improve its track then there’s no point trying to make a Michelin dinner out of spam and eggs !

In terms of pre the low tragedy the ECM has that low in the Channel but these types of features are very difficult to nail down at this timeframe .

Overall a very disappointing start to the day . And we have to hope that they’ve modeled the upstream low wrongly between day 5 and 6.

Would have been nice to have come to this post first this morning, informative but not suicidal, think i prefer to read up after i've done the school run...............So much quicker once all the little children have all gone off to class

 

[Snipper]

One good thing is I suspect none of the “experts” providing their analysis on here are being paid for their comments. I pity those forecasters who are. 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

If only it was that simple.

Raw data used on apps change from hour to hour depending on what time it is and which raw data set they use. 

Raw data should be accurate at days 1-2-3 but beyond this they will change often.

Next weeks details are no where near being settled, with all the data available human interpretation is crucial to narrow down the options. So a snow symbol (or a rain) on an App may be nice to look at, but at range it’s pretty useless (unless there is a very definite we’ll modelled pattern/pattern change coming)

The low on ECM is one OP run, unless it becomes consistently shown and has support from other models, then it really means nothing in terms of a meaningful forecast, though it does show what is possible in the projected pattern.

Thats a good post TBH- ive got my moan off my chest now, i'm still not convinced this is 'over' for next week just yet

Exeters take will be very interesting at lunch time, that will give us a better idea of what the pros think..

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a good post TBH- ive got my moan off my chest now, i'm still not convinced this is 'over' for next week just yet

Exeters take will be very interesting at lunch time, that will give us a better idea of what the pros think..

Im also not convinced it's over. We may struggle with that main low but more than a few hints that there maybe a little runner ahead of that low.

It is also possible the models are overbaking the main low. Whilst less likely to be wrong at this stage, there is probably at least 2 more suites where we could see whole scale changes, and several more again where subtle changes could occur. Even subtle changes could make a difference.

[Eskimo]

I'm confused, are people commenting 'Winter is over' saying it tongue in cheek? Because...with these charts on offer I remain optimistic of a snow event across the Midlands north. For southerners, yes, granted it looks boring (for now), but for those further north, Winter is definitely not over. 

Edited January 25, 2019 by PerfectStorm

[Cymro]

Mods, can we ban the words ‘Stonking, Stellar, Game Over and Boom’ please? I think removing such words would greatly improve the atmosphere in this thread and help keep expectations in check...i mean Game over? really? it will be a stonking set come the 18z again - more up and downs here than a jack hammer at full throttle!

[danthetan]

I think it would be a fair assessment given the lack of consistancy from the models over the past week that anything past the 96hr Mark is subject to change possibly even before that. Coupled with that the -ve strat winds are forecast to hit the deck somewhere round the start of February adding to even more model volatility so expect more ups and downs. I think it's fascinating seeing how this all plays out and even after 15 years of model watching I'm still learning new things every from different weather setups. My advise would be to not look past 72hr to keep the sanity.

[P-M]

Well I eagerly logged on to see what's what and literally the rollercoaster continues. Keep the faith people the ups and downs are to be expected.  

[tight isobar]

After trawling through various this morning...i personaly will not be writing off nxt week until around 7pm this evening...

Still some niggling-points that need ironing out.

Lets start from the 6z gfs.

[Snipper]

7 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Mods, can we ban the words ‘Stonking, Stellar, Game Over and Boom’ please? I think removing such words would greatly improve the atmosphere in this thread and help keep expectations in check...i mean Game over? really? it will be a stonking set come the 18z again - more up and downs here than a jack hammer at full throttle!

Better add snow and ice. 

[Sky Full]

9 hours ago, lassie23 said:

All i want is a flake before February is out

You're easily pleased!

 

.....but if it's something white and fluffy you had in mind the ICON says you might get your wish before the end of January!

    

[Matty88]

Bar a string of relatively cold runs the charts have been flip flopping like no tomorrow - Its been a poor showing from all charts this season. I'm not overly concerned by this mornings run even if many show the low being blown up (and yes this would be a bad scenario). I think they are all for the bin - but if they still show the same in the next 2-3 runs then fair play! 

[Weathizard]

Why would people expect the ECM to change tact and dramatically so, it’s done the same thing with that low the last 3 runs consistently bringing in a southerly sourced airflow, to me it’s unrealistic. Especially now all over models show broad agreement to blow that low up.

Same tired cliches always get brought out, and it pretty much never goes back the right way once it’s gone wrong, and yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes this morning, but let’s be honest with ourselves here.

[minus86BriJ]

The lads letting off the balloons today might come up with a different outlook later on, the chances may be low to zero point zero one but hey, chin up old boy eh.

[Stonethecrows]

4 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

You're easily pleased!

 

.....but if it's something white and fluffy you had in mind the ICON says you might get your wish before the end of January!

    

Living in Sheffield those there icon charts are weather porn. But of course there is more chance of Wednesday winning the league than those coming off.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Why would people expect the ECM to change tact and dramatically so, it’s done the same thing with that low the last 3 runs consistently bringing in a southerly sourced airflow, to me it’s unrealistic. Especially now all over models show broad agreement to blow that low up.

Same tired cliches always get brought out, and it pretty much never goes back the right way once it’s gone wrong, and yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes this morning, but let’s be honest with ourselves here.

Hold these thoghts again-until todays data runs clear.

Then we can re-analyis, and go from there...'either way' !!

[Stonethecrows]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Why would people expect the ECM to change tact and dramatically so, it’s done the same thing with that low the last 3 runs consistently bringing in a southerly sourced airflow, to me it’s unrealistic. Especially now all over models show broad agreement to blow that low up.

Same tired cliches always get brought out, and it pretty much never goes back the right way once it’s gone wrong, and yes someone did p**s on my cornflakes this morning, but let’s be honest with ourselves here.

I'm gonna take this as reverse psychology as i can't fathom any other explanation why you'd need to post it in a "hunt for cold" thread