Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jayfromcardiff]

8 minutes ago, kev238 said:

Well those ECM snow depth charts suggest the ECM was a snow event for much of England around Wednesday . Purples in the south west and Midlands 

Any charts for this?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly chance of snow tuesday, but again timed for heat of the day, needs to be timed from 5-10am, mild though later in the week, February sucks anyway now in the m/e, think there's only been 1 decent Feb since '97 or so

[Duane S.]

Putting aside the ridiculous toddler temper tantrums, some understandable disappointment this morning as the 00Zs

However, it is just as likely to change for the better by this evening, so if you don’t mind, I will carry on rolling my eyes as people drive themselves to near insanity lurching fervently from Op to Op believing it to be the new gospel. 

[Day 10]

Just woke up and read pages of charts and what's happening at 144, since I last remembered that is day 6. After all this chasing of great charts mid to long term and the amount of chopping and changing they have done, do we all now think day 6 is spot on then? Plenty of time for the low at 144 to change track or look totally different again. No weather for the next week then? 

Edited January 25, 2019 by Day 10

[Harsh Climate]

Medium to long term, terrible GFS UKMO and ECM this morning theres no getting away from that!

Although I don't think winters over by a long shot I have no problem with winters over posts right now, we are well into winter and have had nothing but let downs and hardly any snow to 95% of the UK so they are more than right to think that, that's there opinion. 

But as the other poster said, moaning about people moaning haha, to me that's even worse!

On the bright side the latest GFS gives my area a good dumping instead of those in the south, I'm quite happy with that  haha 

I give ya rule that I now stick to regarding tricky to pinpoint the exact path of a slider and it's heavy snowfall. It never eveeeer get's it right straight away, as soon as it shows up on the charts you can bet your bottom dollar it won't end up where previously shown. Just having a bit of fun I'm not taking that great snow chart as gospel, it's still too early, at this rate probably end up in scotland lol.

 

 

[kold weather]

GFS ensembles still offer a wealth of possibilities it has to be said. The dream situation is maybe not as prevelent but plenty of interesting runs that could bring snow.

GFS op probably one of the least snowy of the runs. ECM despite what it does to the main low does give a solid event for southern half of the country.

I'd suggest waiting for the 12z guys before panicking too much. May not get that dream situation but enough uncertainty out there to warrant not going off the cliff edge guys. 

[Frosty.]

After reading through the obituaries of the 00z runs i decided to take a look at the GEFS 00z mean and it's still trending very cold through next week and remains generally cold throughout, especially further north.

[Wilxy]

Going by the mood in here has winter ended before February has even started?

[Chesil View]

Well when I  looked at the ECM op this morning I thought god that means  I'm gonna have to trawl through pages of winter's over drivel on the forum and with one or two exceptions I wasn't wrong.

Edited January 25, 2019 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Steve C]

11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any charts for this?

Probably something like this. Undoubtedly rubbish though. 

[John88B]

Too many people on here expecting way too much of a British winter. Harsh winters here are few and far between so people with high expectations are setting themselves up for disappointment. But hey if every winter was freezing cold the snow and ice would become a bit of a bore and there would be no thrill in the chase!

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Steve C said:

Probably something like this. Undoubtedly rubbish though. 

Not exactly a bad chart is it! Not to say the ECM is good beyond that but does show there is still potential in this setup still...despite all the winter over brigade.

[Paul]

Ok, enough of the childish ott moaning in here, it's too much and is throwing the thread way off topic.

Any more will be deleted, and persistent offenders with regard to this sort if thing will be stopped from posting in here.

[markw2680]

22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Mean cyclonic ese around the euro trough ...... the scandi ridge is not cut off to the southeast so will be unlikely to deliver a ‘screaming easterly’.  Slidergate ......assuming the new  ec op fi can be consigned to the bin .........

not going to bother reading the pages before this one ...... I swear that psychologists could do a whole raft of studies on most of you lot .........

 chill out .....I recall a fergie tweet saying that Exeter saw the cold as being episodic rather than a sustained cold period ........possible snow events before mid week .....then a less cold blip  for the southern half uk before we probably go cold again countrywide ......and that still before a proper downwelling wave strikes the trop ....

STOP LOOKING AT OP RUNS POST DAY 7 AND OVER ANALYSING THEM !!!!!!!!!!!!

this will not be a rerun of dec 2010 ......but there will be plenty of cold and probably snow ops over the next four weeks 

Couldn’t agree more the over analysing in this place is quite frankly ridiculous. Day 7-10 is deep fi and will chop and change so much and pretty much everyone in here knows this but yet the toy throwing when they don’t show what they want is worse than my 5 year olds tantrums.

heres a thought relax don’t take it as gospel every god damn time and more importantly grow up! It’s the weather nothing more

[bluearmy]

27 minutes ago, kold weather said:

In all fairness nothing has gone our way this winter, why start now?

Now you've got total agreement between the so called big 3, I'd suggest that it's probably game over. Indeed this is uncannily like how last week's failed easterly manifested itself.

They all aren't going to wrong with the low phasungveithin 96hrs unfortunately.

Game over on what kold? The positively tilted upper trough isn’t a surprise - it’s precise track, shape and the way it interacts with the existing  upper trough needs to be pinned down now ....... many variations on the table and as has always been the case, a snow line across the uk likely to be the result - that’s going to disappoint a fair few but delight others .... but that’s quite standard in this country .... there is a line of thought that if a big reversal wave is coming in then a final flush of mobility precedes it ..... maybe if everyone looks at it this way they will put the fi stuff into perspective 

and finally - view the gfs as if it were the navgem .... view the gfsp as if it were the gfs - it will generally help in the longer term .

[chris55]

GFS ensembles show how much uncertainty there is around the track position and shape of the incoming low later next week, so much scatter with the a spread of between -10 and plus 5.

Control stays very cold

 

[Steve C]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Not exactly a bad chart is it! Not to say the ECM is good beyond that but does show there is still potential in this setup still...despite all the winter over brigade.

Yes, I suppose you can take that from it.

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, chris55 said:

GFS ensembles show how much uncertainty there is around the track position and shape of the incoming low later next week, so much scatter with the a spread of between -10 and plus 5.

Control stays very cold

 

A pretty obvious and clear uptick from yesterdays 18z though it be said.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Game over on what kold? The positively tilted upper trough isn’t a surprise - it’s precise track, shape and the way it interacts with the existing  upper trough needs to be pinned down now ....... many variations on the table and as has always been the case, a snow line across the uk likely to be the result - that’s going to disappoint a fair few but delight others .... but that’s quite standard in this country .... there is a line of thought that if a big reversal wave is coming in then a final flush of mobility precedes it ..... maybe if everyone looks at it this way they will put the fi stuff into perspective 

and finally - view the gfs as if it were the navgem .... view the gfsp as if it were the gfs - it will generally help in the longer term .

Hello blue army, I actually disavow myself with that comment I made. I don't think he looks nearly as bad as what it looks like on first site which I think is the problem of people having this morning. was obviously not as good as previously expected there is actually still quite a lot potential out there I totally agree.

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

A pretty obvious and clear uptick from yesterdays 18z though it be said.

Yes right at the end which means absolutely nothing after one or 2 runs, if it’s still there at the end of the day into tomorrow then great but until then it’s just nothing

[chris55]

Loving that little channel low on ECM! Plenty of snow for a large chunk of England and Wales.

just shows how many variations we are going to be seeing with this set up.

 

[snow mad]

9 minutes ago, chris55 said:

Loving that little channel low on ECM! Plenty of snow for a large chunk of England and Wales.

just shows how many variations we are going to be seeing with this set up.

 

I would love that to be right but there seems to be a disconnect between how we are reading the charts in here, as I’ve been using a weather app which shows only rain from this and all winter it’s been more accurate than most interpretations on here. Not a dig just an observation.

[mulzy]

Ext EPS continue to show promise.  Northern heights all over the place with a shallow trough over Europe.

[Jackski4]

Well okay, the models aren't what we all wanted this morning. I feel like anything over 72 hours should be taken with a huge pinch of salt, and they're subject to change even as early as this afternoon so I think keeping faith is extremely important even if this mornings run was bleak.

Secondly, I'd like to apologise to the other forum readers/posters for if my posts yesterday were off topic or too bantery. There were currently no models running at the time however, I will try to keep my posts strictly related to the models... I do however believe that all the bipolar behaviour on here is a lot more disruptive than the odd joke, but I guess that's not for me to decide.

[bradymk]

GFS Parallel probably the most consistent and has been the last few days.

its 00z maintains the cold outlook for almost all of the run. Would be a real long spell if it verified.

Doesnt mean it’s right, but no reason why the other 12z’s can’t go back the other way. Plenty of scope in the ens.

The LP of concern is still not in a timeframe where any model is likely to be modelling it correctly anyway.