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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Minimas would be much lower under snow fields, they are remarkable ensembles IMO we don’t live in Siberia for crying or loud!

Yer to be fair you can’t grumble at them , we could have a lot worse . 

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Are post it again . Hopefully someone will answer the above ? Pretty please . 

Might come to fruition in 2030

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joggs Experienced

joggs

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
Posted

Yes the ukmo144 looks good at that point but chances are the Canadian lobe will scupper that(as has done all winter).

Gfs i feel has gone on one with the progressive nature.

Want to see the ukmo come down to t+48 for me then I'll  get excited.

I just feel the chances of a decent cold spell are been pushed back..

All we will  receive out of the next 7 to 10 day set up is snow to Scotland and high ground in Northern England(rule of thumb).

Things diluted as per and until a switch with the downwelling of the ssw,falling in the right places(could happen),i feel its a bust.

 

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syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted
3 hours ago, Skullzrulerz said:

We might as have mild south west wet and call that winter is over  with all due respect it was one run of the ECMWF started the downgrade to this weeks cold spell if you read member it’s understandable folks are wary  its absolutely sad to see that over one run of the ECM and people... 

 

 

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Matty M Community Regular

Matty M

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin
Posted

It is funny-- and i think...I hope I do allude to this now.

 

This is nationally, internationally as close as we get. Perhaps this is why we love it?

 

At this moment of 96hr+ charts....we are all dreaming of delivering a great personal experience....

 

But...we will soon separate.... we will soon no longer frequent this forum....

 

Madness will ensue,,,,, anger....ecstasy ..

 

usually....the majority on here experience...S and SE England

 

Last year.... the bullseye hit Dublin, Ireland. I was there and it was a real immense moment in history...not to exaggerate... but it was...

 

We are all on here for a reason... but we all deep down relish a storm or a snow storm because it brings out real life humanity......we crave that moment where we can do something....where nature rules...no doubt...

 

 

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

00Z runs are going to be crucial for next week, last night on shift for me so will be here for them.

Do hope UKMET continues with its cold outlook.

I do not want to end the evening on a negative but checking UKMO app its cold but goes SW for Thursday next week..

Lets hope this is a mild interval and not a progression into something warmer.

Looking cold in the near future!

Goodnight everyone 

 

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

About time the ecm operational threw out a cold run from the ensemble pack, rather than mild ones after day 6 or 7  which it has been doing recently hopefully it's proven wrong this time, unlike a week ago and the easterly fiasco. Fingers crossed for an upgrade from all models in a few hours. 

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
54 minutes ago, Matty M said:

I feel sad for the UK. To be in this moment. Such inequality, such disparate groups of good meaning people. Get a grip. God speed. 

This is what southwest winds and months of double-digit temperatures in winter, does to a nation.?️

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

ICON really blows up the low in the Atlantic !!

image.thumb.png.635ce8929542ed57d7bacd961997619a.png

Not entirely sure whether its igloo or ark material...

 

 

Looks like a snowstorm to me N midlands/N England

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Looks like a snowstorm to me N midlands/N England

Its hard to know with only 850s as a guide matey..

That was my first instinct but i really don't know if im honest.

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Ǝssex Ǝasterly Seasoned

Ǝssex Ǝasterly

Posted
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow events / Wind storms
  • Location: Benfleet, Essex
Posted

Hope the models get that one sorted out soon! Will need to know whether to buy a sledge or a canoe to stock up on supplies 

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted
22 minutes ago, Essex Easterly. said:

Hope the models get that one sorted out soon! Will need to know whether to buy a sledge or a canoe to stock up on supplies 

In fact your problerly need both lol

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted (edited)

Yep poor I'm afraid too much milder air in the low pressure system. Winter 2018/19..fat lady is getting ready.

Soon as cold weather get into semi reliable starts going bust again! 

Edited by SLEETY
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Yep poor I'm afraid too much milder air in the low pressure system. Winter 2018/19..fat lady is getting ready.

Soon as cold weather get into semi reliable starts going bust again! 

Delete the moan!!

OK, not impressed with UKMO/GFS , lets see what EC says shortly.. 

Edited by northwestsnow
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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted (edited)

Flipping through the GFS 0z min temp charts for UK, except for this weekend the rest of the run looks in the blue predominantly and lots of pink thrown in, Given, more in the North but shows possibilities south early next week. Always a good starting block for the day ahead

Edit: night shifts getting to you NW, keep the faith, insomnia and models dont mix well  weather mods I mean 

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Not forgetting today's chip wrapping paper from yesterdays ECM 12z, JFF ofcourse

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Edited by geordiekev
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

Only crumb of comfort i can find is the GFS control looks very similar to the UKMO 144 and goes onto produce a decent attempt at a block to the NE..

GFS control 144

gens-0-1-144.png

UKMO 144

UW144-21.GIF?25-06

 

Edited by northwestsnow
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

Some good news though - Genuine Northern blocking signal on GEFS - probably the highest latitude this winter.

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Some good news though - Genuine Northern blocking signal on GEFS - probably the highest latitude this winter.

Well as i posted above, GFS control and UKMO are very similar at 144 and GFS control goes onto produce this..

gensnh-0-1-312.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

@northwestsnow

 

Look whats going on in FI now - you sure thats the only crumb of comfort?

Perhaps its just disappointment that the low is going to ruin things- as you say, perhaps there is scope for hope come early Feb onwards..

UKMO 850s not updating but at face value i'd say 144 is a rain fest.

Edited by northwestsnow
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