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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Meteociel is back, but running behind now.

A bit like watching ITV+1.

If you tune in now, there's still the chance of a dumping in the south.

Nope - still not back for me.

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire

Good 18z GFS for snowfall tonight - quite widespread, something to keep an eye on.

Unfortunately, the ECM has lead the way in the last 2 weeks and if America hadn't made a horrendous decision in making Donald Trump president, the GFS wouldn't even be in use anymore, let alone be anything like reliable. 

We need the ECM and UKMO on board in the morning and for these snowy charts to make it, in cross model agreement at T72. 

Until then, it is what it is. 

FWIW - the short term for once actually looks pretty good, chance of snowfall for the usual candidates over the weekend and early next week. 

It could be a lot worse, but my money's on the ECM

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

Facts-about-polar-bears-5.thumb.jpg.c0632aa5162eafbdbac0114b720213a4.jpg

Look mummy! We can see the south side of the M4!

 

 

 

camel-in-the-desert-area.thumb.jpg.87375eb3ca8c2f5e39f711ef4faa9bdb.jpg

As someone who live south of the M4 it’s very frustrating but funny post, gallows humour!  

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

No mention of the 46?  pretty consistent though perhaps more scandi ridge than greeny ...the daily charts in the morning will reveal if any of the blocking is sustained or maintains its more mobile look ....

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Good 18z GFS for snowfall tonight - quite widespread, something to keep an eye on.

Unfortunately, the ECM has lead the way in the last 2 weeks and if America hadn't made a horrendous decision in making Donald Trump president, it wouldn't even be in use anymore, let alone be anything like reliable. 

We need the ECM and UKMO on board in the morning and for these snowy charts to make it, in cross model agreement at T72. 

Until then, it is what it is. 

FWIW - the short term for once actually looks pretty good, chance of snowfall for the usual candidates over the weekend and early next week. 

It could be a lot worse, but my money's on the ECM

ECM vs GFS, ICON and JMA and UKMO - hm, I expect ECM to join the crew and make slight adjustments by tomorrow??

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Good 18z GFS for snowfall tonight - quite widespread, something to keep an eye on.

Unfortunately, the ECM has lead the way in the last 2 weeks and if America hadn't made a horrendous decision in making Donald Trump president, the GFS wouldn't even be in use anymore, let alone be anything like reliable. 

We need the ECM and UKMO on board in the morning and for these snowy charts to make it, in cross model agreement at T72. 

Until then, it is what it is. 

FWIW - the short term for once actually looks pretty good, chance of snowfall for the usual candidates over the weekend and early next week. 

It could be a lot worse, but my money's on the ECM

Led the way when models were picking up the potential easterly and then led the way when it decided to drop the easterly

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Back for me??

The site is working - every other model but the GFS is loading though -even the GEFS are working - the actual site never went down for me.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
7 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

Next slider, also brings another milder sector in the south. This is going to be interesting watch over coming days that line is going to keep changing. 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.46.08.png

WHat time frame is the second slider?

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Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
2 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

ECM vs GFS, ICON and JMA and UKMO - hm, I expect ECM to join the crew and make slight adjustments by tomorrow??

Let's hope so mate. 

Being realistic though, the ICON has been swinging from 1 solution to another (although it did call the failed easterly with the ECM 1st up) and according to the JMA we would all be living in igloo's by now, not forgetting that the GFS should also no longer be in use. 

Like I said though, the important part is that the near term is looking, interesting. 

Let's see what the GFSp has to say!

Edited by PolarWarsaw
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The site is working - every other model but the GFS is loading though -even the GEFS are working - the actual site never went down for me.

Aye, same here, no charts but stuck on 132

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure exactly what you're point is - depends whether you are capable of making an assumption on a chart that is 48 hours away or not.

Suck it up sweetheart. It's an attempt at humour, in a very depressing thread with toys flung from more prams on an hourly basis!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

No mention of the 46?  pretty consistent though perhaps more scandi ridge than greeny ...the daily charts in the morning will reveal if any of the blocking is sustained or maintains its more mobile look ....

Yes, seen it - mentioned it earlier, still all good, possible little signals of a west based setup in the middle but still a great run - but they have been great runs for a while now but we just need those blue things over France and pink things over Greenland / Scandi to start actually equating to those white things falling out of the sky!!

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Let's hope so mate. 

Being realistic though, the ICON has been swinging from 1 solution to another (although it did call the failed easterly with the ECM 1st up) and according to the JMA we would all be living in igloo's by now, not forgetting that the GFS should also no longer be in use. 

Like I said though, the important part is that the near term is looking, interesting. 

Let's see what the GFSp has to say!

Even if ECM is the more accurate model it can have off days as we have seen today.. correct or not. It’s still an interesting development! 

This could be our shot finally!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, same here, no charts but stuck on 132

Sorry.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Worth noting that once it starts to snow in any slider situation it *usually* holds on a good deal longer than  the model expect, they are not the best are forecasting the boundary level in those set-ups and the those charts will often overdo how quickly it changes. Remember back in the days when the Beeb would edit their forecast away from the raw data to account for that, and more often than not they were right to.

Also nice hints again of rising pressure in Scandi area, we could do with it being a little stronger perhaps to stop the sliders getting to far across, but franklythat won't mean a jot if the period between 120-144hrs evolves badly for us...kinda all hinges on that!

ECM is certainly not infallible, though I always get more worried when its ensembles also start to look similar (not as warm, but trended that way). At least the ICON isn't quite as dogged as it was with the previous easterly that failed. Once it clocked that, there was no letting go. 

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
20 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

From that... 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.38.39.png

Assuming that's cm rather than inches...

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Posted
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy or warm and dry
  • Location: Tullynessle/Westhill

Am I the only one who is actually is praying for the ECM 12z to verify? 

Screenshot_2019-01-24-22-55-37.thumb.png.cb1186c13e7562edb0b519723029b202.png

 

Edited by Ravelin
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

18Z looks all a bit strange from around 230z onwards with a floppy area of low heights covering most of the continent to our east - one thing that is becoming apparent over recent runs is a drop of anything sourced from the east in the foreseeable. As I think Nick F posted earlier today we're seeing a -AO but sadly a signal for still somewhat of a +NAO.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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On 21/01/2019 at 19:56, CSC said:

For all those pessimists saying 'winter is over', please go and get some sleep, it isnt! This is the 21st January. Last year we saw significant snow at the end of march..

I do fully understand for many snow lovers, including myself, this winter has been invariably disappointing. The promise of snow for it not to arrive or for all models to switch late on is hard to see. 

This week is still looking exceptionally cold. Tuesday may well bring surprises for many. I have seen lots of comments saying that snow will not fall to lower levels. I however, think that many places will see a period of snow. It may not lay but you may well see some snow at some point,  from the N W to all the way to South coast here in Brighton.

Wednesday many places will struggle to get above 1ºC or 2ºC. This thread is 'hunt for cold'. That is cold to me!

As we head into the later stages of the week, Friday up until Saturday evening there looks to be a warm up. What you may notice however is the constant reload of the jet stream each time it gets colder and colder. I personally think that after this warm up, we have our first chance of a significant snow event. I am to be proven wrong of course but this is my view on it.

With RE to ECM and GFS 'agreeing' to 240h'' it doesn't make too much difference to me. They have proved unreliable at this range in the past and will prove unreliable in the future.

I am fascinated on what is to happen next this winter. 

Please everyone, it may be difficult, but remain optimistic until the end. If you don't have hope, you have nothing.

Have a good evening!

Thank you for reading 

Onwards and upwards!

May I related back to this post I made on just Monday this week when many in this chat seemed to have lost hope..

Oh how the optimism in this thread has changed again 

This is the exact reason why people should always hope! In the weather world things change very quickly 

Bring on snow events next week!

Edited by CSC
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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington

The models lately are like mcds wrap of the day

great for some, crap for some

but no worries

new trend tomorrow 

were loving it (not)

Edited by snowbob
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