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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

The wrap around gives snow again, this time further south as colder air filters back in to southern parts after the brief milder slot. 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.30.58.png Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.31.09.png

Edited by Mark Neal.
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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Shovels for you mate.. if it stays like that can i come and stay for a week..

Dont want to pay rent though..

On a serious one though i think ecms got this one right!!we shall see in the morning!!

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ITSY Seasoned

ITSY

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Agreed,if by north, you mean south.

Agreed, if by south, you mean East. 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

I really do dislike the Wetterzentrale charts, but beggers can't be choosers I suppose!  Anyway, from what I can tell the 18z looks pretty awesome, out to 201 (can't make head nor tales of the uppers though - I'll gamble cold)

  image.thumb.png.ff0f00de5f8a95edf5327b5b5ed11480.png  image.thumb.png.aa8c0a3832438cf042121f62009e34e7.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

The wrap around gives snow again, this time further south as colder air filters back in to southern parts after the brief milder slot. 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.30.58.png Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.31.09.png

Yep, that's exactly how I'd imagine it would go. Would be a decent dumping of snow for the SE there as well.

216hrs looks GREAT on this run, could be setting up another slider as well like the para 12z.

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
Posted
3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Agreed, if by south, you mean East. 

Agreed, if by east you mean west. After all this Greece will be snowed in

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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted
1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

I really do dislike the Wetterzentrale charts, but beggers can't be choosers I suppose!  Anyway, from what I can tell the 18z looks pretty awesome, out to 201 (can't make head nor tales of the uppers though - I'll gamble cold)

  image.thumb.png.ff0f00de5f8a95edf5327b5b5ed11480.png  image.thumb.png.aa8c0a3832438cf042121f62009e34e7.png

I can’t stand them either. 

Can’t understand why anyone would want to use them when Metiociel ones are far better. 

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)

Looks great

just need a run of consistency 

everyone in the uk would be happy with this run

Edited by snowbob
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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yep, that's exactly how I'd imagine it would go. Would be a decent dumping of snow for the SE there as well.

216hrs looks GREAT on this run, could be setting up another slider as well like the para 12z.

From that... 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.38.39.png

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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted

High risk high rewards for us southerners if this trends south we could get a dumping from a setup like this! As the cold air wraps around we’d at least get some back edge snow anyway.

Don’t take those precipitation charts as gospel either, snow can fall anywhere below freezing 850’s given the right setup.

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

High risk high rewards for us southerners if this trends south we could get a dumping from a setup like this! As the cold air wraps around we’d at least get some back edge snow anyway.

Don’t take those precipitation charts as gospel either, snow can fall anywhere below freezing 850’s given the right setup.

Totally agree with that but would expect that to be modelled further south nearer the time anyway not if

Edited by snowbob
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StretfordEnd1996 Community Regular

StretfordEnd1996

Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
Posted
5 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

I can’t stand them either. 

Can’t understand why anyone would want to use them when Metiociel ones are far better. 

It's possibly some people like them as they have a more 'traditional' feel to them!

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CSC Enthusiast

CSC

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Totally agree with that but would expect that to be modelled further south nearer the time anyway not if

By experience, many posters will agree we have had many set ups that have corrected south 40 or 50 miles similar to this..

METO going for heavy snow here not far from Brighton. We are as south as you get.

Maybe just maybe the snow gods are arriving..

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Philbill Apprentice

Philbill

Posted
  • Location: Truro
  • Weather Preferences: Cold
  • Location: Truro
Posted
6 hours ago, tight isobar said:

Meanwhile the canadian mod (gem)..

Wants us batterning down the hatches..

Very wet..very windy..

And certainly out of kilter with ukmo/gfs..

Ecm track will be more than intresting this evening !!!!

gem-0-168 (1).png

Indeed, one could say the isobars are quite tight

 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Tell you what some folk need to take a wee break from model watching to recharge the batteries and get those glasses back to being half full. 

We could do with this thread vanishing for an hour - @DiagonalRedLine are you about mate? 

 

I’m here!

A recharge does sound like a good idea for some. 

I’m afraid I can’t use my magic Model thread disappearing powers anymore. @Paul warned me if I pressed the ‘hide’ button again, snow would no longer exist! And if that wasn’t bad enough, there would be no more hail, no more thunderstorms, or even anymore more sleet! 

I’m sorry dude. It’s a sacrifice I’m not willing to make!

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Totally agree with that but would expect that to be modelled further south nearer the time anyway not if

Providing of course that the ECM isn't right ;). Gotta think it could literally go either way at this point still, 50-50. The ECM means switching to some extent is certainly something to worry, regardless of whether it was on the warm side.

I seem to remember last week it was the 00z GFS that flipped milder again and the 00z UKMO as well...I sure hope history doesn't repeat itself!

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, lassie23 said:

All i want is a flake before February is out

Thats the problem with me - as all i want is a 10-12 inch fall (at the very minimum 5-6 inches.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

There is solid high pressure in the Arctic, an Atlantic ridge with N/NE flow

 

GFSOPNH18_192_1.png

 

Wetter 192 850's at 192 The -5 isotherm eventually gets into Spain and the -10 knocking on N of Scotland

GFSOPNH18_192_2.png

Edited by Mucka
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NeilN Aficionado

NeilN

Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
Posted

In an area that doesn't see that much (last March the exception in recent times), I just want any snow - a dusting would do! 

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Mark Neal. Seasoned

Mark Neal.

Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Posted

Next slider, also brings another milder sector in the south. This is going to be interesting watch over coming days that line is going to keep changing. 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.46.08.png

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted (edited)

Meteociel is back, but running behind now.

A bit like watching ITV+1.

If you tune in now, there's still the chance of a dumping in the south.

 

Edit....aaand it's gone again.

Edited by Johnp
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
Just now, Mark Neal. said:

Next slider, also brings another milder sector in the south. This is going to be interesting watch over coming days that line is going to keep changing. 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.46.08.png

Aye need this correcting south, not technically a slider, as it dosen't slide, but FI so dosen't mean it's right

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