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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Brilliant GFS run so far...

Bosh!! 

Be different tomorrow mate. Will be showing blow torch south Westerlies and temps of 22c

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS -156 brings a more elongated low over the UK, entry point Ireland across the SW - big snow event for Wales & the midlands- Rain / Sleet south of M4

Scotland Frozen solid by then!

Ditto @kold weather

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.24.14.png

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

GFSOPNH18_171_1.png

Think we would all prefer this to ECM, GFS quite snowy through the mid term, especially for the N 

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Posted
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow.. frost. Freezing fog
  • Location: Horwich, Bolton.. 196m asl
Just now, Mark Neal. said:

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-24 at 22.24.14.png

Could do with that 50 miles further north 

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, Winter Hill said:

Could do with that 50 miles further north 

IMBY Syndrome!  Its fluctuating North/South run to run but thats to be expected given the envelope. Someone could get dumped on next week, My prediction is Midlands Northwards. 

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Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Just now, shaky said:

Told u so!!!!wat a gfs!!midlands and wales buried!!

It will correct south you know it will

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, Steve Murr said:

Pretty much as described then- about 50 miles North of M4

Yup. Cotswolds/Chilterns could join in on the action given height, i think the boundary isn't going to be far off. 

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS -156 brings a more elongated low over the UK, entry point Ireland across the SW - big snow event for Wales & the midlands- Rain / Sleet south of M4

Scotland Frozen solid by then!

Ditto @kold weather

Doesn’t make it much further north than the m4 though. This is furthest north 

5F433529-6106-46A9-B114-47DA27BB360B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

GFSOPNH18_171_1.png

Think we would all prefer this to ECM, GFS quite snowy through the mid term, especially for the N 

If that does happen surely we would see a split with all that high pressure?

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, Tim Bland said:

Doesn’t make it much further north than the m4 though. This is furthest north 

5F433529-6106-46A9-B114-47DA27BB360B.png

Thats 12z mate. 

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, shaky said:

Told u so!!!!wat a gfs!!midlands and wales buried!!

Shovels for you mate.. if it stays like that can i come and stay for a week..

Dont want to pay rent though..

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Posted
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Headington,Oxfordshire
Just now, Sweatyman said:

BANK!!!!!

Trip to Cadbury World might be on the to do list!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

Could do with that 50 miles further north 

Agreed,if by north, you mean south.

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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Bout right.. stalls about 6 inches from my house..

 

Aye, but won't turn out like that, near perfect for here

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
2 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

IMBY Syndrome!  Its fluctuating North/South run to run but thats to be expected given the envelope. Someone could get dumped on next week, My prediction is Midlands Northwards. 

Missed 3 sliders last year 1 by a whisker, all modelled further South as the time got nearer.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well that was a very close run thing on the 18z GFS, I think that is about as far as we can go without the LP phasing and it all going the ECM route.

Anyway once the cold is in place, its not going to be going anywhere fast!

Also as others have said, there is a large range of options of where the low will end up, as well as how strong that low becomes, so no point getting too hung up as to where the LP is shown, just need to make sure the LP doesn't shove too much WSW/SW air around the system on its way here otherwise its a long ole road back to cold.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Doesn’t make it much further north than the m4 though. This is furthest north 

5F433529-6106-46A9-B114-47DA27BB360B.png

12Z that

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