Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jason74]

15 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Can't we just enjoy the fact it's going to turn a lot colder at least for much of next week which the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows..post mortem's already being written and nothing has happened yet!!

Yep. Don't look too far ahead. 4 to 5 days maximum. 

[Methuselah]

All I'm seeing is fifteen-or-so days of unsettled weather with T850s between, say, -4 and -10C (daytime maxes of 0-6ish, outwith precipitation?)...Looks good to me?

And, no, I'm nae going to bother with the 18Zs; three major mood-swings per day is more than enough for me!

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

Having a deja vu moment of last week right now!!gfs ukmo and all the models showed an easterly for this week but then came that 12z ecm run to ruin evergthing and we all know what happened the next morning!sickening!!similar thing happening now!!

@bluearmy did warn everyone not to get carried away . One thing is for sure the models have been terrible this winter . 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Can't we just enjoy the fact it's going to turn a lot colder at least for much of next week which the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows..post mortem's already being written and nothing has happened yet!!

Never mind the hunt for cold....an awful lot are hunting for breakdown BEFORE the cold fun and games.  Let’s stick to up to day 6 max.  For those looking beyond for mild....I can’t help

 

 BFTP

Edited January 24, 2019 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[halny]

59 minutes ago, sausage said:

this really is last chance saloon.the sun is strong now. 

The sun's not strong. We're just in a bad position geographically. Chicago, which is 600 miles south of the south coast of England is forecast a daytime high around minus 20C next week. Winnipeg, which is south of London is expecting sunny skies and minus 32C for a maximum temperature around the same time. The sun is well and truly powerless against negative double digit 850s at our latitude, and will be until late March.

The lacklustre 850s in the chart below could throw a few surprises with heavy enough precipitation. I wouldn't rule it out. It's marginal, yes, but 9 out of 10 UK snowfalls are.

 

[Northern Sky]

17 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Do these EPS not upgrade and downgrade on a daily basis though?  One day they look great the next they look meh?

When hi res operational models are all over the place at Day 4 and 5 why should we be worried about lower res runs between days 7 and 12?

All entirely futile and a waste of emotion surely?

It looks that way yes. Last nights 10 day ECM mean was great, today it's rubbish. What the reality will be I don't know and neither it seems does the ECM. 

Edited January 24, 2019 by Northern Sky

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

Good to see that this thread is getting worked up by charts 7+ days away. The ECM means and det runs from this time have been showing better output previously of which very little has verified. So there is no reason to believe that the latest should verify. The pattern up to T+144 is still pretty good and whilst that is still so, then it is a case of ‘maybe’, ‘maybe not’ for the later output. I suspect that the gfs will be different too on the next run, but even if it shows complete snowmaggedon the same philosophy will apply.

Try it out and you will find that your expectations either way are not swinging each way as the models do!

Up to day 5 things are looking ok. From there on any lateral thinking will show that this is not a bad position.

Yeah, I think the problem is this is literally identical to last week (like even the same groupings of models!) and so people are obviously stressing about it.

Plus this winter, what can go wrong, has gone wrong. I understand why people are sceptical.

However with that being said, models can and are wrong and just because there is better agreement for it not going quite well, its far from impossible for it to adjust back again, though the form horse seems to suggest it won't.

Finally, I think Tuesday does hold quite a lot of potential, and yes it may not be anything like what some of the models have been showing, but still could see a decent coverage in the end and IMO could cover a larger area as well as it looks a little bit colder aloft as well.

[joggs]

1 hour ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

At the moment any past 120/144 is very FI indeed. Remember the easterly chart from days7-10 from a week ago. The current 7-10 day charts have about the same chance of being right on the money. 

This is from the west and north west so more chance of been right imo.

Canadian lobe is writing our winter off imo........again

[fluid dynamic]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Never mind the hunt for cold....an awful lot are hunting for breakdown BEFORE the cold fun and games.  Let’s stick to up to day 6 max

 

 BFTP

Does anyone know if there are any rolling verification stats for quality of model output covering say 3 or 5 days?

[Spah1]

Booooooooored !!  

Still no Blocking! 

Been waiting all Winter. 

Read every word since November.

Can only be recovered by a freezing Feb with several snow events. Trumps wall is going to be built before the SSW downwells. 

So much analysis over the last month on a mediocre Winter so far. Cricket season starts in 11 weeks

[Frosty.]

1 minute ago, Spah1 said:

cricket season starts in 11 weeks

Jeez don't mention the cricket, now that is depressing!..models looking in much better shape than the England team!

[Snowy L]

52 minutes ago, Firefly2005 said:

I know there’s a lot of negativity in here - is that a hangover from the amazing winter last year? Expectations a bit unreasonable? 

We’ve had more snow at our house in the Pennines this winter than we got in the whole of 2016-2017 winter. About 5 days of settled lying not melting snow so far as opposed to 3 that year. 

Even if we just keep getting these spells of snowy weather I feel like we’re still not having a bad winter... 

 

 

Sorry but 5 days of settled snow on the Pennines is just about acceptable for one month of winter, never mind an entire winter. Expectations that we get a two week cold spell once a winter are very reasonable.

[joggs]

27 minutes ago, TomW said:

I'm struggling as to why there is negativity in here personally I think we have made great progress today in terms of potential cold, or am I missing something?

Basically across the board it looks ok to good for cold and snow in most places in the short to medium term.

But with the way models downgrade as we move closer to T 0hrs the output becomes diluted with snow mainly reserved for the northern half,especially hills.

The main problem is the canadian lobe feeding low pressure towards us and not enough amplification for a wedge of higher hights to slice through the lows to give us a favourable shot at sustained cold.

Models have promised nirvana at times but as the latest ecm run(longer term)is awful for snow(scottish mountains exempt).

Might be wrong but i know where my money is.........

Most parts could receive some snow if the big 3 stick to their near time output but changes will probably occur.

[Mr Frost]

Tell you what some folk need to take a wee break from model watching to recharge the batteries and get those glasses back to being half full. 

We could do with this thread vanishing for an hour - @DiagonalRedLine are you about mate? 

 

[frosty ground]

9 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Booooooooored !!  

Still no Blocking! 

Been waiting all Winter. 

Read every word since November.

Can only be recovered by a freezing Feb with several snow events. Trumps wall is going to be built before the SSW downwells. 

So much analysis over the last month on a mediocre Winter so far. Cricket season starts in 11 weeks

You need a week off

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

You need a week off

Agreed

[78/79]

Just to put into perspective what a crap place the UK is for cold and snow,  I turn 59 in March, and  during those 59 years I have lived through 5  or so winters that could be called classics. 62/3  78/9  81/2 86/7  2010. Quite a few more have had snowy spells but mixed in with mediocre dross..

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

Does anyone know if there are any rolling verification stats for quality of model output covering say 3 or 5 days?

Yep, they can be found here:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/ 

Current day 5 score here:

Currently ECM > UKMO > FV3 > GFS > GEM(CMC)

[kold weather]

Still a fairly snowy set of ensembles, I know they aren't as good as they were, unfortunately that is especially true for the south, but say from Sheffield north the ECM ensembles still look fairly snowy for the 31st-1st. Still we will see how this evolves.

 

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, snowbob said:

Maybe if the background signals become poor

we may finally get some cold and snow

cant get any worse really can it

the great signals for cold haven’t helped since november

  here here well said I couldn’t agree more with your comment  snowbob

[Skullzrulerz]

We might as have mild south west wet and call that winter is over its absolutely sad to see that over one run of the ECM and people... 

 

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Still a fairly snowy set of ensembles, I know they aren't as good as they were, unfortunately that is especially true for the south, but say from Sheffield north the ECM ensembles still look fairly snowy for the 31st-1st. Still we will see how this evolves.

 

When you say 31st-1st you are essentially talking about a 24 hour period in over 7 days time - I personally can't possibly make any judgments on that day at this range yet. I wouldn't panic just yet.

[Dave Kightley]

That low will be played around with at 162h twice a day for the next 4 or 5 days... Bound to behave in between

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

That low will be played around with at 162h twice a day for the next 4 or 5 days... Bound to behave in between

It’s almost like the final outcome isn’t decided yet and that the op and the ensemble can and will change so winter isn’t over.

[Chesil View]

31 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Good to see that this thread is getting worked up by charts 7+ days away. The ECM means and det runs from this time have been showing better output previously of which very little has verified. So there is no reason to believe that the latest should verify. The pattern up to T+144 is still pretty good and whilst that is still so, then it is a case of ‘maybe’, ‘maybe not’ for the later output. I suspect that the gfs will be different too on the next run, but even if it shows complete snowmaggedon the same philosophy will apply.

Try it out and you will find that your expectations either way are not swinging each way as the models do!

Up to day 5 things are looking ok. From there on any lateral thinking will show that this is not a bad position.

Great post Chiono. You,d think that people had been on here long enough to have learn,t that ith NWP. Its a case of 5/6 days at the most with any real accuracy regarding position track etc and in a slider scenario such as now probably even shorter to FI than usual.