Cold hunt - models and chat

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, frosty ground said:

And more importantly days 4-6 look good 

 

They look reasonable yes, certainly decent for you with your altitude, not so sure further South and without altitude.

[ICE COLD]

22 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Scandi heights have been advertised for a while now in the EPS (whether that manifests itself as a Sceuro ridge or true Scandi high is too early to tell).  I was referring to the incoming low days 6-8.  Support for the low with a rounder shape to the west / south-west of the UK is growing.  Not a done deal but the trend is clear.

Yep the mean 850s are higher from T168 . So there really is no point looking at means so far out as  they change as much as the op . We’ve had cracking means , ext eps etc etc for seems like years and it has delivered zilch . Getting a bit tiresome now TBF . Probably get slaughtered for posting this but it’s the truth .

Edited January 24, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Mike Poole]

Not liking the ECM mean at T168 and definitely not liking it at T240:

At T168 because the low is too far west, at T240 because it is an absolute hellmouth.  

We need:

[The PIT]

15 minutes ago, Firefly2005 said:

I know there’s a lot of negativity in here - is that a hangover from the amazing winter last year? Expectations a bit unreasonable? 

We’ve had more snow at our house in the Pennines this winter than we got in the whole of 2016-2017 winter. About 5 days of settled lying not melting snow so far as opposed to 3 that year. 

Even if we just keep getting these spells of snowy weather I feel like we’re still not having a bad winter... 

 

 

Just one day of a dusting that managed to survive otherwise a very poor winter with only three days of snow falling and one of those was a single snow shower on the 22nd.  Charts keep looking good but not delivering anything of note here. Next good day maybe Tuesday but I bet it either stays dry or just delivers rain showers here. The chart T168 on the ECM just screams wet cold rain for us.

[Wilxy]

I'm struggling as to why there is negativity in here personally I think we have made great progress today in terms of potential cold, or am I missing something?

[frosty ground]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

They look reasonable yes, certainly decent for you with your altitude, not so sure further South and without altitude.

Look decent for most away from windward coasts 

[feb1991blizzard]

Lets just hope the eps pick up again around D14-15 to givve us some hope for Ferbruary scandi high and a proper snow event.

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep the mean 850s are higher from T168 . So there really is no point looking at means so far out as  they change as much as the op . We’ve had cracking means , ext eps etc etc for seems like years and it has delivered zilch . Getting a bit tiresome now TBF . Probably get slaughtered for posting this but it’s the truth .

For an average at this range it’s fine if the low is being modelled wrong then those could easily revert back or go the other way

thibk it’s time for the Mods to give the cry babies a week off

[shaky]

Yup not the best of mean and gfs will fall in line most probably next run!!this is it like i sed earlier now or never!!that low has to slide to get anything meaning full or forget bout it!!

[Frosty.]

Can't we just enjoy the fact it's going to turn a lot colder at least for much of next week which the Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows..post mortem's already being written and nothing has happened yet!!

[snowice]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They look reasonable yes, certainly decent for you with your altitude, not so sure further South and without altitude.

Look how many runs have changed at 144 this week. Its so complex I think FI is 120! Can we ever get a  boom at 120?

[tight isobar]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

They look reasonable yes, certainly decent for you with your altitude, not so sure further South and without altitude.

And day 4-6 is EXACTLY where the sync begins to go into guess who land...on a broadscale!!..

So lets agree that that is where we land very much FI.

And that ens/and all datas need sharp missleading pattern there on in..

So we look for again-some more defined agree..post the time!!! @4 days cross!!!

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Lets just hope the eps pick up again around D14-15 to givve us some hope for Ferbruary scandi high and a proper snow event.

Not happening the pattern is pretty set and has been for a while the extended range is picking up below average temps which is what we are currently getting on average 

[Djdazzle]

2 minutes ago, TomW said:

I'm struggling as to why there is negativity in here personally I think we have made great progress today in terms of potential cold, or am I missing something?

Perhaps you are missing the charts? There are one or two good runs but far more mediocre ones.

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No point dressing things up as some are, the EPS (can only comment up until 240) have downgraded the cold potential from D7 to D12.

Do these EPS not upgrade and downgrade on a daily basis though?  One day they look great the next they look meh?

When hi res operational models are all over the place at Day 4 and 5 why should we be worried about lower res runs between days 7 and 12?

All entirely futile and a waste of emotion surely?

[SLEETY]

Anyway ECM  Op was at the top  of the the pack after day 7 again,so maybe it will have a colder run showing in the morning.

[frosty ground]

othe horror  the envelope at this range is wide I’m sure someone will post one for down south

[Wilxy]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Perhaps you are missing the charts? There are one or two good runs but far more mediocre ones.

Its hardly mild surely we have learned by now that snow chances tend to pop up closer to the time, Tuesday being a perfect example and its the 24th January and we are still trending colder therefore I see no reason to be negative!

 

[AmershamMike]

3 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Do these EPS not upgrade and downgrade on a daily basis though?  One day they look great the next they look meh?

When hi res operational models are all over the place at Day 4 and 5 why should we be worried about lower res runs between days 7 and 12?

All entirely futile and a waste of emotion surely?

Great post. So much volatility yet people seem to take what’s showing at D5+ as gospel. Can’t understand it myself

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Do these EPS not upgrade and downgrade on a daily basis though?  One day they look great the next they look meh?

When hi res operational models are all over the place at Day 4 and 5 why should we be worried about lower res runs between days 7 and 12?

All entirely futile and a waste of emotion surely?

Yes the whole suite can pretty much change at this far out.  They did last Friday into Saturday for example, and not in a good way.  Boot could be on the other foot this time...good chance too I think given unpredictability due to the downwelling SSW.

Plenty of miles left in this one...

[oliverek7]

Remember we are still a week or so away from what the weather models are predicting! Judging by what happened last weekend when they changed, hopefully it could turn really cold with the weather models this weekend so they can redeem themselves after the disappointment that we were met with last weekend

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

othe horror  the envelope at this range is wide I’m sure someone will post one for down south

That will do !!

[Chris101]

Anyone got any ideas of if and how many times ECM or others blew up Sundays LP out of proportion in the last 5 days, genuine question my head has looked at so many charts and the memory gets worse.

[shaky]

Having a deja vu moment of last week right now!!gfs ukmo and all the models showed an easterly for this week but then came that 12z ecm run to ruin evergthing and we all know what happened the next morning!sickening!!similar thing happening now!!

[chionomaniac]

Good to see that this thread is getting worked up by charts 7+ days away. The ECM means and det runs from this time have been showing better output previously of which very little has verified. So there is no reason to believe that the latest should verify. The pattern up to T+144 is still pretty good and whilst that is still so, then it is a case of ‘maybe’, ‘maybe not’ for the later output. I suspect that the gfs will be different too on the next run, but even if it shows complete snowmaggedon the same philosophy will apply.

Try it out and you will find that your expectations either way are not swinging each way as the models do!

Up to day 5 things are looking ok. From there on any lateral thinking will show that this is not a bad position.