Cold hunt - models and chat

[Guest]

I think the GFS has it here, expect the ECM to move tomorrow or possibly day after. I’m not usually wrong, you know that.

The ECM should be in the milder mean.

[IDO]

Looking at the GEFS at T168 and the biggest cluster supports the ECM take with that trigger low:

There are quite a few even worse than the ICON TBH!

Anyway, how does the GFS op avoid a blown up low over the UK?

It splits the low and the smaller sister low acts as the trigger. The control also does this but tracks it a bit further north.

None of us can be sure what happens to this low, maybe not till the weekend bearing in mind the scattergun approach of the GEFS. What we know is that the GFS solution is by far the best, ECM next, then GEM, and then some of the GEFS. The GFS op looks a bit of a push to get high support at this range or could be a bit of a push, full stop! 

Fingers crossed...

Edited January 24, 2019 by IDO
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[tight isobar]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

You're absolutely right, but in totally the opposite way than you think. 

Ask any gambler (I am one, when I can afford it!) and they'll tell you, it's not about the money, it's about the rush.

And I can also tell you that model watching with the prize of snow, seems to fire up thoughts and emotions as gambling.  And explains why we persist with the roller coaster, it's precisely because it is a roller coaster, and the more times we lose, it makes the elusive win better!       As we'll find out by 10 February. 

Nice 1mike..

I love a punt myself..(a little 2 much probably)..

But our lucky 15 has 2 winners atm-and the last 2 are currently 2nd favs...

Although-could go as favs as we near upon some model agree!!!

Then-we get 4 winners and a cheeky bonus...all well up 4 grabs !!!

Edited January 24, 2019 by tight isobar

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I reckon there is good support for the det in the EPS - the mean 850s for the London area have risen significantly days 7/8.  More later...

FGS...

[matty40s]

21 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

People have very short memories I’m afraid. Only last week were snowmageddon charts being posted which were wiped out within 24 hours. But it’s like gambling - losses lead to more losses!

You gotta be innit to winn(ter)it.

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I reckon there is good support for the det in the EPS - the mean 850s for the London area have risen significantly days 7/8.  More later...

850s don’t tell whole story encouraging signs of +ve heights backing into Scandi..

[frosty ground]

22 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Erm….enjoyment of the weather? 

I'm trying to take It to the extreme a little bit to get it into people's heads that unless charts are within T72 they need to be taken with a monster pinch of salt. 

Whereas, the normal trend is to take charts at T168 asif, they are at T6. Then instead of enjoying this thread, numerous hundreds of people that don't suffer weather model run orientated bi-polar can enjoy the experience, rather than have to sit and sarcastically laugh at those that continually build themselves up, misguide themselves and then drown in Prozac a few hours later. Entertaining for a while, but rather ruining the experience lately. Yes it's enjoyable viewing charts in the mid and long term, nobody would be around otherwise - but the balance that needs to be applied to them, sorry, rather the truck load of salt that needs to be applied to them goes amiss and we end up with a ruined thread full of grown adults behaving like stroppy teenage girls. 

Gets to a point where enough is enough. 

It's no coincidence that MOST of our more knowledgeable, sensible and level headed members chose to frequent the other model discussion more frequently than this 1.

Not sure it’s required thou you can’t control people that can’t control their emotions just put them on the ignore list

[Skullzrulerz]

Is the ENS or EC46 updating tonight ?

[Methuselah]

Next Wednesday:

Just off the  hard shoulder on westbound M4: 

Just off the hard shoulder on eastbound M4: 

[snefnug]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

FGS...

Is that a new climate/forecasting  model?

[mulzy]

Just now, Daniel* said:

850s don’t tell whole story encouraging signs of +ve heights backing into Scandi..

Scandi heights have been advertised for a while now in the EPS (whether that manifests itself as a Sceuro ridge or true Scandi high is too early to tell).  I was referring to the incoming low days 6-8.  Support for the low with a rounder shape to the west / south-west of the UK is growing.  Not a done deal but the trend is clear.

[snowbob]

Maybe if the background signals become poor

we may finally get some cold and snow

cant get any worse really can it

the great signals for cold haven’t helped since november

Edited January 24, 2019 by snowbob

[Firefly2005]

I know there’s a lot of negativity in here - is that a hangover from the amazing winter last year? Expectations a bit unreasonable? 

We’ve had more snow at our house in the Pennines this winter than we got in the whole of 2016-2017 winter. About 5 days of settled lying not melting snow so far as opposed to 3 that year. 

Even if we just keep getting these spells of snowy weather I feel like we’re still not having a bad winter... 

 

 

[mulzy]

Just now, Firefly2005 said:

I know there’s a lot of negativity in here - is that a hangover from the amazing winter last year? Expectations a bit unreasonable? 

We’ve had more snow at our house in the Pennines this winter than we got in the whole of 2016-2017 winter. About 5 days of settled lying not melting snow so far as opposed to 3 that year. 

Even if we just keep getting these spells of snowy weather I feel like we’re still not having a bad winter... 

 

 

I think the problem is reality against expectation.  That's the issue...

[Stormeh]

11 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

I will take this ECM run all day long - from a selfish Scottish goat point of view! 

Yes the ECM looks great for Scotland, plenty of snow for us.

One thing for sure is that it’s going to turn a lot colder next week with plenty of snow potential across the whole of the UK. The GFS and para are looking great for snow from Monday. Soon no more boring mild and damp weather, plenty of fun and games for many of us next week

[Mr Frost]

I have it on good authority that the CFS has this nailed on and not that long to wait...10/03/2019! 

Have no fear...the CFS is here. 

 

[Daniel*]

10 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Scandi heights have been advertised for a while now in the EPS (whether that manifests itself as a Sceuro ridge or true Scandi high is too early to tell).  I was referring to the incoming low days 6-8.  Support for the low with a rounder shape to the west / south-west of the UK is growing.  Not a done deal but the trend is clear.

I disagree think it’s quite different actually a more shallow feature and doesn’t ram headfirst into the U.K. like the op goes southeast into France..

Edited January 24, 2019 by Daniel*

[offerman]

20 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

It’s scepticism rather than negativity, things will change but could go either way. If one major model is showing a poor outcome for cold then it’s more than likely correct. Sod’s law, but very true!

Nice post DJ

as much as we don't want that it is true as to what happened last week.  

This time though the ensembles do seem to have a better handle on things . 

So here's hope but not sure how much though for those of us in the South. 

[mulzy]

Just now, Daniel* said:

I disagree think it’s quite different actually a more shallow feature and doesn’t ram headfirst into the U.K. like the op goes southeast.

It's shallower because it's a day 8 ensemble mean!  At that range, features are diluted out.

The comparison alone tells me there is at least decent support for the operational run.

 

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I disagree think it’s quite different actually a more shallow feature and doesn’t ram headfirst into the U.K. like the op goes southeast into France..

Without looking at the individual runs its going to be very hard to know, it could easily be a few big LPs to the south pullinh that mean southwards fwiw. Not saying it is, but until the individual members are all out, going to be difficult to get a reading on it.

[frosty ground]

168 mean chart supporting the op and 192

Edited January 24, 2019 by frosty ground

[feb1991blizzard]

No point dressing things up as some are, the EPS (can only comment up until 240) have downgraded the cold potential from D7 to D12.

[chris55]

Yet more solutions on the table from the 12z suit.

Sliders look to be merging with the main trough to far north subsequently cancelling out the cold flow for the majority.

Then we have UKMO looking loaded past 144........we have seen this before lol.

FI deffo still out at 120 but the trend tonight is not great.

 

[frosty ground]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No point dressing things up as some are, the EPS (can only comment up until 240) have downgraded the cold potential from D7 to D12.

And more importantly days 4-6 look good 

 

[Sweatyman]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No point dressing things up as some are, the EPS (can only comment up until 240) have downgraded the cold potential from D7 to D12.

useless island this is. Cant get nothing ever