Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Might still turn out OK as it pushes east but not ideal by any means

-5C isotherm is a fair bit north of even Scotland on this run, that's a massive drag down that is required to get cold enough for snow. IF GEM happens then only Scotland are within close reach, for the S.England thats probably a solid 5-7 days delay from 1st Feb IF the pattern is good afterwards.

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather

[Methuselah]

And straight along the central reservation of the M4!

  

[claret047]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

A very snowy gfs 12z..

Some impactual snowfall ...

A gaining 'big time' scenario..via most raws now!!

Hello TI

I enjoy your posts & the optimism they engender. As far as impactual snowfall is concerned could you advise whether your comment refers to all the UK or where you consider the snow line will be. Many thanks.

Kind Regards

Dave

[tight isobar]

Cracking chart from gfs..coutrywide -8 850s and snow potential..shetland..down to southern coastal counties!!

[MidnightSnow]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Cracking chart from gfs..coutrywide -8 850s and snow potential..shetland..down to southern coastal counties!!

Word porn right there.

Nice to see these kinda charts in the semi-reliable time frame. Some continuity now wouldn't go amiss. 

[tight isobar]

2 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hello TI

I enjoy your posts & the optimism they engender. As far as impactual snowfall is concerned could you advise whether your comment refers to all the UK or where you consider the snow line will be. Many thanks.

Kind Regards

Dave

Up4 debate as per at such time frame.

But with whats on offer atm..favoured initialy..northern and western areas prone.

But as we move on countrywide threat grows and gains..

Some very decent synoptics flooding out now...in regards SNOW THREAT/THREATS!!!

[northwestsnow]

22 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Looks like another very unstable flow, indeed the GFS has yet another strong trough over S.England. Maybe I may yet end up with my first ever NW snowfall!

150hrs GFS - snowfall on leading edge of front, rain for far south. Decent enough run though for the pattern! On that leading edge could vbe some big falls on this run, maybe some more snow on the back half for the south as it clears...if it clear.

MUCH better run for the southern crew

GFS that is, UKMO potentially very good for many..

[kold weather]

Worth noting that the GEM super charges the low pressure over Canada between 36-48hrs, getting it decently below 955mbs. The GFS is gets down to 960mbs and the UKMO only to 965mbs. It may be that then  GEM is overpowering the low which is suggestive its throwing too much energy into the flow, which obviously has its impacts on what happens downstream between 96-144hrs.

[frosty ground]

Artic high starting to influence Scandi.

Also another slider!

[chionomaniac]

The 850 temps in these sliders are never quite as low it seems they are modelled 5_6 days ahead.

 

I’ll be quite happy when this Iberian low is modelled a bit further north as shown next week!

Edited January 24, 2019 by chionomaniac

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

 The thing is with all these sliders, is that they change slightly from run to run. Normally that wouldn’t be a problem but in this case it is critical. For instance in the last 2 days I think I have seen every variety of solution for down here in West Sussex for the forecast Sat night to Monday morning. Heavy snow, light snow, back edge snow, sleet, rain, dry slots, warm slots all in the mix. So the speed of slide, direction of slider, how far east the slider travels, whether secondary lows develop all will influence the 850 temp boundary. And that is just Sunday’s slider with others following on, 

So, for me looking at any slider 850 temps and precipitation is most definitely out of a curiosity fun, but no way will I put any faith in any individual set up ( besides the slider pattern) until it is right upon us. 

 

I agree, we've seen sliders quite literally change there minds slightly at z6 many times, and that small change can make a very big difference to where the snowline might be. Further north south east or west by just 10 miles, can make a difference, and even the shape it ends up as, can change what falls where. They are very difficult to predict completely in advance.

[Had Worse]

I have the sledges primed for fast response.

Mouth watering synoptics on show again and can it all behave, not like last Friday, when the eyecandy for this week briefly imploded.

[kold weather]

Great looking GFS so far, and the UKMO was also very good.

GEM and ICON both destroy hopes of a long lasting cold spell, so feels like we are back at that all or nothing place we were same time last week!

Whilst they are not as good as the UKMO/GFS, still is a possibility they are right. ECM going to be a pretty important run to see which side it sits.

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I agree, we've seen sliders quite literally change there minds slightly at z6 many times, and that small change can make a very big difference to where the snowline might be. Further north south east or west by just 10 miles, can make a difference, and even the shape it ends up as, can change what falls where. They are very difficult to predict completely in advance.

Which is why the surface detail is pointless looking into too much, but the trend is important. But it’s still fun to look at, and it is a high risk, high reward type pattern. Keeps us interested

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Great looking GFS so far, and the UKMO was also very good.

GEM and ICON both destroy hopes of a long lasting cold spell, so feels like we are back at that all or nothing place we were same time last week!

Whilst they are not as good as the UKMO/GFS, still is a possibility they are right. ECM going to be a pretty important run to see which side it sits.

If ICON/GEM Donald UKMO at day 5 i'm logging off until November ..

[Froze were the Days]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

If ICON/GEM Donald UKMO at day 5 i'm logging off until November ..

That won't happen!! - I mean you logging off , interesting GFS 12z.

[cobbett]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

If ICON/GEM Donald UKMO at day 5 i'm logging off until November ..

What about  ICON/GEM/ECM ?!!

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, cobbett said:

What about  ICON/GEM/ECM ?!!

Then i will give much more credence to the other 2 ..:-)

[northwestsnow]

I spotted a -14 in scotland at day 9 GFS..

Vicious cold and its hardly barbie weather elsewhere in uk&Ireland..

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If ICON/GEM Donald UKMO at day 5 i'm logging off until November ..

Chances are less than 10% especially after the ICONs change at just 96-120 on the 06z run---

[Tim Bland]

Who is Donald?...ah Trump! Sorry being slow

anyway GFSp snow depth by Sunday night ....

Edited January 24, 2019 by Tim Bland

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Who is Donald?

President of the US- personally i could think of one or two other names but note to oneself, its models not politics..:-)

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Who is Donald?

Trump 

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Who is Donald?

Trump? You may have heard of him.

An orange buffoon who lives in a big white house.

[snowbob]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Chances are less than 10% especially after the ICONs change at just 96-120 on the 06z run---

How do you this panning out for south London @stevemurr

lots of posts about north only

or is that just early on