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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The UKMO looks a stonker to me.

Great ukmo 12z..

Much more defined with uppers..

Gfs goes mild sector mad!!.

And is prone in such instances..

 

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Actually 144hrs UKMO is nearly a carbon copy of the 06z GFS, so perhaps better than even I was thinking.

Anyway 126hrs GFS has a good shaped low extending and attaching around the broad circulation of the PV lobe to our north. Looks good so far!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Great ukmo 12z..

Much more defined with uppers..

Gfs goes mild sector mad!!.

And is prone in such instances..

 

Even if that didn't deliver, i could easily see it ending up like the 6z GFS further down the line, which gave a dumping.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, CSC said:

UKMO 144h many places will probably struggle to get much above freezing..

Looks pretty good to me!

Yeah no issues with the 12z UKMO, and no issues thus far with the GFS out to 132.

BIG issues with ICON.

So what odds guys that the ECM follows the ICON this evening... ;) 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

A very snowy gfs 12z..

Some impactual snowfall ...

A gaining 'big time' scenario..via most raws now!!

gfsnh-0-132 (1).png

Edited by tight isobar
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

gfs 12z - almost similar weather to what we had this week - snow showers/fronts to almost anywhere England/Wales

Looks like another very unstable flow, indeed the GFS has yet another strong trough over S.England. Maybe I may yet end up with my first ever NW snowfall!

150hrs GFS - snowfall on leading edge of front, rain for far south. Decent enough run though for the pattern! On that leading edge could vbe some big falls on this run, maybe some more snow on the back half for the south as it clears...if it clear.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Just now, kold weather said:

Looks like another very unstable flow, indeed the GFS has yet another strong trough over S.England. Maybe I may yet end up with my first ever NW snowfall!

 

gfs-2-144.png?12 JFC

the track will not be sorted out until 48 but its a feature that has cropped up a few times

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Posted
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m
  • Location: Kippax (Leeds) 63m

UKMO 8/10 for me, very nice. Cold with multiple chances of snow just about anywhere and I think the next few frames after could lead to even deeper cold!

GFS also 8/10 so far. Very good!

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

channel low anyone the gfs has the low at 144h now moving further south anyone on the northern side of it with the easterly winds would get a real dumping

image.thumb.png.e9f0dcfbaffe6eaf34dd0caa5597a7e1.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Meanwhile the canadian mod (gem)..

Wants us batterning down the hatches..

Very wet..very windy..

And certainly out of kilter with ukmo/gfs..

Ecm track will be more than intresting this evening !!!!

gem-0-168 (1).png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

GAME ON! Again! You've got to love these marginal situations?

image.thumb.png.67918cdd13ba647fea068941ef5351d6.png

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The pattern is there on GFS 12z but I think it will be colder come Tuesday than what it is currently showing.

The reload of the jet stream will probably happen a bit further west meaning we are colder and have more chance of snowfall.

image.thumb.png.d88ca7d85b2f2305583deb56baf95ca7.png

Even at 96 the re load of jet is too close to UK

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Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Meanwhile the canadian mod (gem)..

Wants us batterning down the hatches..

Very wet..very windy..

And certainly out of kilter with ukmo/gfs..

Ecm track will be more than intresting this evening !!!!

gem-0-168 (1).png

Might still turn out OK as it pushes east but not ideal by any means

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

GEM goes along with the ICON on this run.

GEM is at 985mbs by 108hrs and phases with the PV lobe further east, indeed the LP that comes down at 120hrs never separates from the Canadian PV. A little reminiscent of the Easterly fail actually.

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