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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Steady as she goes. All's well at T+0:

image.thumb.png.98217605a407e04d8426bc2ea5e3e2d6.png

MASSIVE DOWNGRADE FOR HERE. NOT HAPPY. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath, Oxford
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

You’ve probably jinxed it

I hope not 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ukmo much quicker off the esb with the day 5 system .... 

To be fair, does look like the ICON speed wise, but not phasing already like the ICON does (between 120-132hrs).

144hrs UKMO looks fine to me, nice elongated LP, compared to the circular 980mb low already present on the ICON.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
44 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

it was a joke, i know temps are forecast to be a bit milder tomorrow and saturday, then its looking like the real cold will arrive soon after, well hopefully. lol  bbc forecast for MBY for tommow is 11c and saturday 10c though

Yes, well expected and advertised mild blip, even bbc forecast was being revised every 30 mins this morning, narrowing the blip.

Edited by ribster
Sausage fingers!
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Sunday PM looking 'interesting' for Grampian, Tayside and Fife?

image.thumb.png.0443cd46cf912ac25ae31243746d1324.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Not the best, but better than the ICON. 168 on the UKM might look good. 

0AA261F7-7430-4EA8-A04B-A20ABD10E11C.gif

860B512E-3490-4173-966E-2FD1E8FA06D8.png

GAME OVER!

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

That ukmo 144 chart looks great to me! Maybe I’m reading it differently...

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
2 minutes ago, weirpig said:

UKMO 144hr  Looks ok to me  

image.thumb.png.8d683ac992a89d379e915dab9327eae7.png

Miles better than the ICON. We want submarines, not bowling balls.

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Actually am dreading the 144 hour chart lol!!

its not to bad that low looks like it would undercut at 168h but by how much nw france or se England it would make a huge diff

image.thumb.png.578582a327509cdd8f285b626e5a7f54.png

Edited by igloo
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Almost an arctic high linkup, the charts after would be great. It’d actually help if it progressed in that manner, as you’d have the chance to build pressure behind the low.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

UKMO is fine, probably not great for S.England verbatim but the shape is fine and mean quite a tight gradient of cold air to the northern edge of the low...so even if us in the south were on the wrong side, the cold air is still nice and close by...

Compared to the ICON with the bowling ball strong low means any cold air is 100s miles north of the center. VERY hard to drag cold air down there without northern blocking to help, which isn't happening any time soon.

Edited by kold weather
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