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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Para looks messy in week 2 but I think it could well end up like this for a period as the Canadian continues to feed the jet and the scrussian ridge attempts to back west ....

just as an aside, wasn’t it last Thursday that all the modelling pointed to wintry nirvana back end of this week ....... just saying .......

Yup could go wrong and if it does thats me done for the winter regardless of what we get late february!!its next week or never!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

The official release of GFS-FV3 (GFS P) was due to take place today but it is now postponed due to the ongoing USA government shutdown

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Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
6 minutes ago, Zesyph said:

Why do people prefer powder snow more than wet snow/larger snowflakes most of the time? What are the main differences between them? 

I found out in March 2018 that dry powder snow is overrated... can't even make a snowball. Not complaining though, that month was epic.

Edited by MidnightSnow
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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

See, JMA was on the ball after all last night.

 

Para even gives us our Greenland high by the end of the run, fab run!

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gfs-16-360.png

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
25 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

And for people that moan constantly about marginality.

Umm... what do you think it was for a great deal of the big snowfalls in low lying south? Yep, marginal.

High risk high reward. Especially later in entrenched cold. Bring it on I say!

Here here S4L.  I drag it out and dust it off every winter but the deepest snow in my not inconsiderable lifetime Feb 1978 came from uppers of just minus 2.

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Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Wet snow is heavier with more water content

Powder is is lighter

Usual ratios in the UK between 1:7 & 1:10

Dry snow is north of 1:10 ... Ideally this is sub -10c territory / sub -2c dewpoints / Sub -1c WBPT = Stella dendrites !!

And more importantly, it makes a lovely squeaky noise when you walk in it!

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Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Lots of snow, lots of hot sun
  • Location: Huddersfield, 145m ASL
33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Agreed but we can certainly enjoy the p p p p..potential!!.. and background signals etc..:cold:..stunning 6z for sure..love it

Exactly Karl, certainly there's no point trying to pin any detail to next week, but there is now strong agreement that it will be a cold week, and that it certainly will be cold enough for snow for some, and almost certainly cold enough for significant snow for some. Where and how much is of course not yet clear, but the probability of a significantly colder week is very high - in fact the probability of next week being by some considerable margin the most wintry so far this winter is very high.

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Pennine Ten Foot Drifts said:

Exactly Karl, certainly there's no point trying to pin any detail to next week, but there is now strong agreement that it will be a cold week, and that it certainly will be cold enough for snow for some, and almost certainly cold enough for significant snow for some. Where and how much is of course not yet clear, but the probability of a significantly colder week is very high - in fact the probability of next week being by some considerable margin the most wintry so far this winter is very high.

ABSOLUTELY agreed ..

METO RAW now suggesting mins down to -4 here tues night onwards, and only a couple of degrees above freezing daytime, in our locale north of the jet in a slack setup late Jan will produce some very cold surface conditions..

Someone somewhere could get plastered when the Atlantic eventually moves in with all the entrenched cold- hinted at yesterday by Exeter..

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Posted
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
  • Location: Leicestershire (hinckley)
16 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Definitely potential showing atm for significant snow event middle of next week, just looking at the 00z EPS mean mslp (left charts below) suggest low moving down from the southern tip of Greenland to west of Ireland then to SW of Britain by Friday, the spreads of mslp (right chart) suggest more southerly track possible.

ps2png-gorax-green-008-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1ad515c21ca67e14-C7pNLa.thumb.png.21d9f823f4537753689ed0b2696ce5d3.pngps2png-gorax-green-007-b6a07f0b7be1ee2f1ad515c21ca67e14-AlFE4S.thumb.png.36132f34a6b684c0679be034a34fe4f7.png

This low could bring some significant snow on its northern flank, models agree on this low coming towards the UK for now, but not on its track. 06z GFS snow charts show a spike in members snowfall and the average of the members middle of next week

Birmingham

gfs-birmingham-gb-525n-2.thumb.jpeg.3051eac7c98f6dac2aca58002757f1c0.jpeg

Manchester

gfs-manchester-gb-535n-2.thumb.jpeg.65a77cf7ce7013cd430ee74aeaf38570.jpeg

 

Great post although for anyone who hasn't followed the charts to long scenarios like this are really best not to pay much attention to until they are within +48 and you can cross reference with the various high Res models. A slight change at any point will see the snow risk area move significantly. 

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Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL

My head (as I'm sure many others can relate) is about to burst. Upgrade downgrade rubbish not rubbish. Snow midlands north, snow mainly for western UK. Backedge snow for the south 

 

Unfortunately I'm not able to decipher the models enough to have confidence in posting them at the moment. But would it be possible for some of the more seasoned posters to add a little (just for fun) run down of where the impacts are likely to be seen? I've seen a post saying P*****l snow for 2.5 days away but where? 

 

Apologies if I've missed a post somewhere it's just sometimes like trying to read a riddle and I'm still nowhere near understanding where or what regions are likely impacted. Hopefully it's a country wide event(s) 

 

Personally I want to say a massive thank you to everyone that contributes to this thread. It really is a brilliant site and forum for weather enrhusiast and I've learned so much. So even when I moan sometimes please forgive me, the wealth of knowledge is second to none for learners on here. 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Man can't believe they could be a "major" snow event for north England soon enough.

Why do us far South westerns folk barely get anything

Ah, but when you do get it it sure does deliver...Has all what fell in February 1978 melted yet!

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
8 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Absolutely BB.The snowfall of a lifetime, 20ft drifts, tropical Weymouth was cut off for 3 days. The rain quickly turned to snow (not as forecast) on Saturday night and by lunchtime Sunday it was a winter wonderland.

As an 8 year old at the time, these are memories that will never fade. All that from this...

NOAA_1_1978021818_2.thumb.png.cca598a8f9971f1f0c24d9f00a2c9d68.pngNOAA_1_1978021900_2.thumb.png.7186cc4460f1e5c2fb0fd9f9434f4d5f.png

NOAA_1_1978021906_2.thumb.png.41f032eed554c8b45b70856087fde00a.pngNOAA_1_1978021912_2.thumb.png.6fc1812f39bd07b7e504df54da6a2351.png

Relevant to those learning to understand that it isn't all about super strong HLB and/or about cold uppers taken in isolation.

How on earth did Weymouth on the south coast get so much snow out of that? And yes, for those that moan about it, it's a NWly alright. Incredible stuff!:shok:

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ah, but when you do get it it sure does deliver...Has all what fell in February 1978 melted yet!

Gosh if only I was 21 years younger 2010 always come to mind as remember that I couldn't go school for a week XD

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Posted
  • Location: Jarrow,Tyne & Wear
  • Weather Preferences: All extreme weather especially cold and snow!
  • Location: Jarrow,Tyne & Wear

Just for fun but P15 post 300z on the latest GFS run is one bitterly cold northerly,imagine the wind chill in that!

Screenshot_20190124-124126.png

Screenshot_20190124-124105.png

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
8 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Absolutely BB.The snowfall of a lifetime, 20ft drifts, tropical Weymouth was cut off for 3 days. The rain quickly turned to snow (not as forecast) on Saturday night and by lunchtime Sunday it was a winter wonderland.

As an 8 year old at the time, these are memories that will never fade. All that from this...

NOAA_1_1978021818_2.thumb.png.cca598a8f9971f1f0c24d9f00a2c9d68.pngNOAA_1_1978021900_2.thumb.png.7186cc4460f1e5c2fb0fd9f9434f4d5f.png

NOAA_1_1978021906_2.thumb.png.41f032eed554c8b45b70856087fde00a.pngNOAA_1_1978021912_2.thumb.png.6fc1812f39bd07b7e504df54da6a2351.png

Relevant to those learning to understand that it isn't all about super strong HLB and/or about cold uppers taken in isolation.

Very true. Take the 06z GFS for example. At first glance, it doesn't appear overly impressive for long lasting cold or snow. However It actually shows snow on every day from this Sunday onwards, with virtually every part of the UK seeing significant amounts at some point.

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
10 minutes ago, snowray said:

How on earth did Weymouth on the south coast get so much snow out of that? And yes, for those that moan about it, it's a NWly alright. Incredible stuff!:shok:

Looks like a SE’rly?

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow Frost Sun
  • Location: Rotherham
37 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Man can't believe they could be a "major" snow event for north England soon enough.

Why do us far South westerns folk barely get anything

Chances of any snow events in your part of UK (Cornwall) is very slim. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
46 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

 The thing is with all these sliders, is that they change slightly from run to run. Normally that wouldn’t be a problem but in this case it is critical. For instance in the last 2 days I think I have seen every variety of solution for down here in West Sussex for the forecast Sat night to Monday morning. Heavy snow, light snow, back edge snow, sleet, rain, dry slots, warm slots all in the mix. So the speed of slide, direction of slider, how far east the slider travels, whether secondary lows develop all will influence the 850 temp boundary. And that is just Sunday’s slider with others following on, 

So, for me looking at any slider 850 temps and precipitation is most definitely out of a curiosity fun, but no way will I put any faith in any individual set up ( besides the slider pattern) until it is right upon us. 

 

Sadly we aren't probably going to have any real clue until its basically on top of us (if it gets that far!) these things tend to shift around.

I mean take that US storm, the low was still shifting about quite a lot within 36hrs, to the extent that the snow line moved about 100 miles north in that time. For our ize country, thats quite a sizeable adjustment within 36hrs.

As you say, it is cool to look at but it probably only informs us of the range of options out there until closer to the time.

Sundays slider does still look subtly interesting, there is a slight consensus on the GFS ensembles of the cold air digging down quickly enough to turn the back edge at least snowy...but at this range we just won't be sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
7 minutes ago, danm said:

Looks like a SE’rly?

Yes your right, silly me SEly. So a stalling front down in the SW by the looks of it and battleground.

Chance of sliders and battleground scenarios there on 06z. Liking the JMA monthly forecast for February, lots going on to keep us occupied. 

Edited by snowray
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Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

Now is not the time to live in the southwest but looks great elsewhere next week if 06z is on the money!

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