Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Good for potential evaporative cooling, were it to come-off...measuring sticks at the ready!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.1537574f7023ca42a639d5878bb3b507.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Dublin
  • Location: Dublin

We that frigid air going to exit the US it does mean there would be a sharp baroclinic zone near Newfoundland and likely to spawn some serious low pressure systems which could topple the block after T192hrs

 

Otherwise a stellar 6z run.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Wow, that PV lobe develops a central pressure of 950mbs, that's VERY low for the core of the PV, I'd imagine the thicknesses there must be truly insane!

Azores high won't last long against that sort of pressure but we already are on the right side of the cold so that may not be a total disaster, but we will see. That 2nd lobe to our north will probably induce a +ve NAO type pattern eventually given the strength of that PV/jet combo to our east.

Signs of disruption already, but you can see a big surge coming across the atlantic now
gfs-0-210.png?6

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

This chart is truly unbelievable. Off the scale cold into the heart of the USA. ( >-35C 850 hPa  temps)

GFSOPNA06_150_2.png

-40 on the 6z:

gfsna-1-144.png?6

 

I've been to Chicago when it had -15C to -20C 850's and that was bone-chilling dry cold, so Christ knows what -40 will feel like at the surface. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We want that PV digging as far South in the US as it helps the jet buckle more and pull the Azores High Westwards and Northwards. 

Agree 100%, if that drops as far South, we also stand our best chance yet of splitting that lobe from its feed.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Signs of disruption already, but you can see a big surge coming across the atlantic now
gfs-0-210.png?6

Yeah we may see that LP move SE, but the whole pattern to our north is towards lower pressures/thicknesses as that PV lobe to our NE is also starting to strengthen again. May not end badly but much will depend in how the LP moves and phases with the PV lobe to our north. With cold in place, does give us some leeway.

With that being said, the likelihood of a 950mbs PV is exceptionally low, probably on the lower edge of what is likely, so it is highly probable the GFS is just overblowing it a fair whack which may make the GFS pump things up a little too much.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

-40 on the 6z:

gfsna-1-144.png?6

 

I've been to Chicago when it had -15C to -20C 850's and that was bone-chilling dry cold, so Christ knows what -40 will feel like at the surface. 

Went to Finland about 5 years ago and there was below -30 uppers, didn’t feel that much colder to be honest I think once you get to a certain cold level you feel numb to it, was -22 at midday so rather chilly  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Very cold day there Frosty, not surprising given the low thicknesses and also the probable fairly widespread snow cover by that point which will help hold back temperatures. Indeed the wrap around low drops quite a lot of snow, sweet spot would be S.Midlands/ Home counties on this run.

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.68081ec3d0fbb9df72c87cf0b44620a5.png198-778UK.GIF?24-6
Wide spread Ice day possible next week following on from some Low over nigh Lows

That patch of sub zero temps in the south midlands/home counties/EA reflects a cover of 10-15cms so no surprises there. Just one of many options at the moment but possible only if the wrap around is fast enough and the low initially SWly enough...
image.thumb.png.9e4548b8c93809f3a663da336030ae1f.png
 

Edited by ITSY
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

With this set up, what has already happened and background signals as they are. A rival to 1985 chart like this should come as very little surprise.

GFSOPNA06_150_2.png.287a1a562562f34c071bfa160fe9ec8d.thumb.png.4fa9631c655600b87c95a9c6e6600d1d.png

Still an incredible chart though!

Edited by s4lancia
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Some of the temps next week on 6z are really really cold...!!

tues 9pm

image.thumb.png.f8a60f721b42d694b186539d0987ef83.png

thurs 9am.. look at SCOTLAND temps!!

 

image.thumb.png.b500fbcddb67cb7253c21ae20577f063.png

I think its fair to say next week is looking COLD!!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

162-779UK.GIF?24-6

Just for curiosity really but there is also the possibility of Freezing rain along the boundary 

Looks like cold rain, the worst possible weather for us on the south coast and south of London (I refuse to mention THAT motorway ) 

Could be some dangerous conditions around with lying snow and ice then rain.

Edited by Weathizard
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very cold day there Frosty, not surprising given the low thicknesses and also the probable fairly widespread snow cover by that point which will help hold back temperatures.

Yes i agree snowfields (love that word) would defo keep temps down........

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

252hrs is a classic example of where having a cold pool established makes a big difference. It looks like a sleety mess on 850hps, however the boundary/surface level is so cold that I'm fairly confident any precip would snow.

Loving this run, despite the super strong PV doing its best to blast it all away, this is what things can be like IF the first low ends up staying far enough south!

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Looks like cold rain, the worst possible weather for us on the south coast and south of London (I refuse to mention THAT motorway ) 

Could be some dangerous conditions around with lying snow and ice then rain.

Take a look another 24hrs onwards, even the south coast gets abit of a dumping on this run in the end! Snow-rain-snow would be the theme of this run for us lot in the south, certainly not the worst solution and the snow would probably hold longer than the models initially show.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

6z with lots of sliders and snow potential on the boundary.

Way to far out to be taking the details seriously but a nice trend.

Some places could be absolutely buried. 

 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Great eye candy there from gfs!!!Fi still the 120 144 hour mark for me

Ill go along with that. 120h  were the slider slides towards the Uk  anything after that is still up in the air.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The key timeframe remains day 5 to day 7.

We need as shallower a low as possible moving se , and then must get the pattern sufficiently se so that any upstream amplification happens with the UK on the cold side of the jet .

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

252hrs is a classic example of where having a cold pool established makes a big difference. It looks like a sleety mess on 850hps, however the boundary/surface level is so cold that I'm fairly confident any precip would snow.

Loving this run, despite the super strong PV doing its best to blast it all away, this is what things can be like IF the first low ends up staying far enough south!

Isn't it the 'super strong PV' (or the overall NH pattern it's part of) that's pumping cold air into the North Atlantic, kold? Anywho, I wouldn't want to be camping, in a Highland glen, on Day 10!:cold:

image.thumb.png.6f8cc2c4c0776e67d81292bf6fff45c9.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

The key timeframe remains day 5 to day 7.

We need as shallower a low as possible moving se , and then must get the pattern sufficiently se so that any upstream amplification happens with the UK on the cold side of the jet .

As always getting snow from these set-ups is a mighty tough ask. How many times has a LP that starts by getting a frontal system into Scotland only for them to push further and further south to the point where it barely reaches S.england. Don't think it would be that unrealistic for that trend to happen.

06z is a fair compromise for a fair chunk of the country, any further north and it'd be mainly rain event for the south, much further south and it'd only be the S.midlands/South that gets anything at all.

Anyway very good 06z GFS and one that is loaded with potential throughout the run, starting on Saturday night.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Isn't it the 'super strong PV' (or the overall NH pattern it's part of) that's pumping cold air into the North Atlantic, kold? Anywho, I wouldn't want to be camping, in a Highland glen, on Day 10!:cold:

image.thumb.png.6f8cc2c4c0776e67d81292bf6fff45c9.png

Yes it is

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...