Cold hunt - models and chat

[Johnp]

Parallel run looking lovely

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

Parallel run looking lovely

Yes it's much better than normal GFS. 

Big snow event incoming. 

 

[snowray]

4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Parallel run looking lovely

Yes the para looks brilliant.....and similar to the....................wait for it folks.............

 

                                                       THE JMA!

[StretfordEnd1996]

4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes it's much better than normal GFS. 

Big snow event incoming. 

 

I'll tell you what, it may be something or nothing but after the main GFS run disappointment that's a proper good chart to look at for 7 days time - 

 

[kold weather]

Ensembles still messy, but they look good upto 168hrs and then typically start to get worse.

As BA said, there is plenty of possibilities for the next 7 days on the models, but on a personal note I just can't get too excited knowing its going to give my location 0cms...and probably 0 flakes as well. There is plenty of potential, especially further north providing the low doesn't end up super north like the 18z GFS operational did!

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[ALL ABOARD]

Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

I'll tell you what, it may be something or nothing but after the main GFS run disappointment that's a proper good chart to look at for 7 days time - 

 

Im waiting for the 192 to say boom. 

But its taking ages, 

Slack flow.. 

Minus 8 uppers. 

Plenty of percipitation.

But it stays out in the channel. Haha. 

 

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Ensembles still messy, but they look good upto 168hrs and then typically start to get worse.

As BA said, there is plenty of possibilities for the next 7 days on the models, but on a personal note I just can't get too excited knowing its going to give my location 0cms...and probably 0 flakes as well. There is plenty of potential, especially further north providing the low doesn't end up super north like the 18z GFS operational did!

Why are you always so critical it’s not helpful? Think you were outright dismissing this week parts of capital had few CM, as for NW’ly never giving snow, seen snow come from Cheshire area many times, so your memory is likely lacking or selective. Anything can happen in weather but it certainly is not going to be mild. And that’s the foundation we need.

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Why are you always so critical it’s not helpful? Think you were outright dismissing this week parts of capital had few CM, as for NW’ly never giving snow, seen snow come from Cheshire area many times, so your memory is likely lacking or selective. Anything can happen in weather but it certainly is not going to be mild. And that’s the foundation we need.

I've never seen snow from a NW, trust me, I'd remember if I had (I've been on here for 15 years, never happened to me, you must be lucky to be on the 'flight' path of a Chesire streamer then! They always used to miss me when I lived in Essex, though I often saw the convective cloud tops.

And no I never dismissed anything, indeed I said that the timing would be important and that the longer it lasted the better the chances for snow would be, especially in the east of the region. It was never really on for my region unfortunately due to it coming a little too early.

If I'm critical its only bwcause I know that plenty of areas are going to get snow, and I will get 0 from this set-up, call it jealousy I spose!

Then again Daniel, I do hope I wrong! Prove me wrong NW!

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[snowy36]

I would love for the para to be right for once. Looking beautiful.

[Alpine glow]

31 minutes ago, Day_10 said:

Hi Paul,

 

isnt that the definition of bants? Or top bants even?  Isn’t that why there’s a focussed model discussion thread and then this one to provide a safe space for weather AND bants? Given the dire downturn in output I feel that bants is an important coping mechanism for those of us who’s lives are preoccupied with chasing snow for 3 -5 months of the year!

 

I’ve been coming here years during Autumn/Winter months and I’ve never known the Model threads to be so hard to follow and to be so disjointed.

This is by no means a dig at the Mods who all do a superb job; for me it’s a more an influx of people who are unaware of the ethos of the threads. 

They’re legendary, these threads and there are some great great minds here... it’s just finding those minds in an ever increasing sea full of s..t 

Its getting increasingly harder to wheedle out the wheat from the chaf

 

[NeilN]

You know I misread the date on the model as January 2009! I've a feeling we could see a carbon copy of ten years ago. 

[ALL ABOARD]

Scandi? 

GFSP remains cold throughout. 

Plenty of snow chances for everyone. As Slack troughs traverse on a NW to Se axis.

The azores high isn't aloud to nudge in and this means any warm sector's are kept at bay. 

At 240 there's a hint that the ridge will head to scandi. But who knows. 

[law of averages]

Good late evening, fellow cold n snow hunters... some Xcellent posts, AGAIN!!

I've one unrelated question, why doesn't it show... whose on forum at the bottom of the page any more??

Sorry for being off topic 

[kold weather]

Ensembles have plenty of potential for snow events say north of say London westwards, some runs form nice little lows that run along the flow, drawing in slightly too warm air into the south but bumping up against the cold further north provides the Midlands with decent falls of snow.

Th pattern kinda reminds me of Feb 2010 actually a little, decent for Midlands north, not much cop for the south other than maybe front edge/back edge events.

[Man With Beard]

24 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Parallel run looking lovely

The parallel tonight is brilliant and bizarre. It's got to be the most active southerly jet I've ever seen modelled in winter, and I've been watching these charts for nearly 20 years faithfully. 

What's even more bizarre is that the snow chart shows almost nothing for inland areas! I would have thought the whole country would have been buried by the run! 

[The Northern Ramper]

4 hours ago, blizzard81 said:

Another c**p ecm op that ends with the promise of a relatively mild easterly

 

Isn’t it always the case  mild air showing up at 240hrs with the promise land of SW mush never nearer!

Everyone concentrating on the cold air within 144 when we should be chasing mild southerlies at 360.

Why do we never get a Bartlett? The jackpot repeater in the winter chase!

Sick of this white stuff

 

 

[ICE COLD]

The para is a well nice run . 100 times better than the gfs . 

[snowray]

I wonder what the odds are that the 00z runs will be big upgrades all round, for a change?

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

The parallel tonight is brilliant and bizarre. It's got to be the most active southerly jet I've ever seen modelled in winter, and I've been watching these charts for nearly 20 years faithfully. 

What's even more bizarre is that the snow chart shows almost nothing for inland areas! I would have thought the whole country would have been buried by the run! 

I thought that as well, literally the low pressure jumps right over the UK and reforms to the south. I've seen tropical lows do that before, but never a standard low pressure system, very odd!

 

[ICE COLD]

Oh yes the holy grail coming on the para . Yes it’s la la land but that is nice

[ALL ABOARD]

Not a bad little educated guess. 

I wonder if as Blue stated earlier we are staring down the barrel of a scandi high with lows scooting under. 

Imagine spending all winter chasing a greenie high to get a scandi one instead. 

 

[Duane S.]

My parting thoughts for this evening, based on the latest output? Exactly as per yesterday. 

Putting aside some decent snow opportunities in the next 7 days (after the couple of days mini warm up), as energy slides SE’wards. It’s really circa Thursday next week where things could START to get really interesting. That appears to be the next serious window of opportunity for Atlantic ridging to make inroads.

At this juncture, it looks really viable as well. What makes this super interesting to my mind, is that euro troughing that will likely be there, as a result of the big bad nasty vortex spewing its energy across the Atlantic and down into Central Europe beforehand. Now throw in a steadily increasing signal for amplification and a (slowly) slowing Atlantic by that juncture and, well, February could be a classic.

[snowy36]

Probably better than last years beast and only 300 hours away .

[Cloud 10]

12 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

Good late evening, fellow cold n snow hunters... some Xcellent posts, AGAIN!!

I've one unrelated question, why doesn't it show... whose on forum at the bottom of the page any more??

Sorry for being off topic 

I think having all the names on the bottom stresses out the Net-Weather server,which was probably why the thread went AWOL earlier on this evening.

[kold weather]

Yep great GFS para tonight, that's Iike it for sure!

The GFS ensembles are hinting at possible back-edge snow as it clears away on the 27th, that maybe the next area to watch. Once again more likely the case in the north but not impossible further south either.

ps, I think I'm slightly grumpy because I missed the snow yesterday (especially as places 15 miles north had some!), and I think down here there aren't going to be many chances for snow this winter in this type of pattern, at least the type that actually sticks (aka, not back edge/front edge trash)

Edited January 24, 2019 by kold weather