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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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More Runs Needed Aficionado

More Runs Needed

Posted
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, Snow, Winter, Summer storms after a 'heatwave'
  • Location: Mid-Lincolnshire 10m asl
Posted

+153 less ridging into central Europe of azores high, looks better

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Daniel Smith said:

Wouldn't take long for the cold to surge back South, look at the cold pool waiting behind it..

LOW.thumb.png.ebb6448f3484e5c55de9c61f848ed61c.png

Depends on whether there is any mechanism to shove it back southwards. It never happened on the 12z GFS until the whole toppled. Hopefully it doesn't take that again to get the cold southwards.

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Rocheydub Seasoned

Rocheydub

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Posted

Cross polar flow on the way if the usual progression were to take place.

Stopped watching after 192. But there is a clear path to HLB in this run (alone, I must add). 

Bed time, but looking to next evenings runs now. Look for upgrades in the 12zs tomorrow. I feel this is the tide turning.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

The only way we will have a quick evolution into cold (aka this time next week) is IF the PV lobe doesn't split off and move into the Atlantic. Every single OP and ensemble I've seen that sends the energy into the Atlantic ends up with a mild spell across a fair chunk of the country...though IMO the 18z GFS is overdoing this.

If that happens then we will need to wait for the next pluse of ridging high pressure from the Azores to flatten the whole lot SE and try to build a Scandi high from there...probably would be a milder variation of an easterly though (aka -5/6/7C type temps, marginal at its best).

Edited by kold weather
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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, snowbob said:

Is this not the direction @bluearmy predicted a few days back

Very much so, though I had hoped it would be adjusted to the south, not to the north like tonights models have done!

That upper low over us is going nowhere fast and we are wasting good cold time here! Especially given the decent pattern upstream around 144hrs, what a waste that 18z GFS is!

Edited by kold weather
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Decemberof2010 Seasoned

Decemberof2010

Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: Bitter Cold in winter and Extreme heat in summer
  • Location: Leeds
Posted
Just now, Jackski4 said:

How far out are we talking before a potential HLB? Days, weeks?

Should arrive in time for next winter

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
13 minutes ago, shaky said:

And good night!!what a horrible 168 hour chart!!defo want a change in the morning!!

The Models are all over the place with these so called background signals so not sure why you are looking into FI at the moment besides it's doesn't look "horrible"!!

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

How far out are we talking before a potential HLB? Days, weeks?

How long have you got? There's one on order from Amazon, but it's coming from China.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

How far out are we talking before a potential HLB? Days, weeks?

I've been banking on the 5-10th of Feb for a little while, though if we can't get a better pattern before that there may not be much deep cold to actually tap into given how mild E.Europe/Russia looks.

ps, here comes the westerly push of the jet because of the PV over Canada again at 216hrs, to move away our UK upper low that is stuck in situ (imagine that upper low 500 miles SE, that would be a long lasting NE flow, we are still on a global scale closeish to it.

Edited by kold weather
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Right then. With the expectation of umpteen dyer runs, overnight, and euphoria, come tomorrow morning, I'll bid y'all a good night.:hi:

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MidnightSnow Rising Star

MidnightSnow

Posted
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Harsh Frosts & Heavy Snow
  • Location: Yate, Bristol
Posted
2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

Should arrive in time for next winter

That winter has a lot of potential.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

Well after that ECM and now the GFS 18z it is definitely time to be concerned.

Time to sit back and see what tomorrow brings.

If it is more of the same we can't blame people for being miserable really, this whole winter has been so near yet so far, very frustrating.

Could be different tomorrow though so not time to give up yet.

 

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snowbob Seasoned

snowbob

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Very much so, though I had hoped it would be adjusted to the south, not to the north like tonights models have done!

That upper low over us is going nowhere fast and we are wasting good cold time here! Especially given the decent pattern upstream around 144hrs, what a waste that 18z GFS is!

It’s not that far north really

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Ok so evolution to watch for is for our upper ,low to weaken, for a slider low to come down and for pressure to rise to its north/north-east in its wake. Doubtful anything too cold will come from it but may still be enough?

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JeffC Accomplished

JeffC

Posted
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: wintry
  • Location: Coniston, Cumbria 90m ASL
Posted
Just now, Jackski4 said:

Express delivery?

If we listened to that paper we'd be submerged in 10 ft drifts in the middle of London!

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
1 minute ago, JeffC said:

If we listened to that paper we'd be submerged in 10 ft drifts in the middle of London!

How we'd all love that, though.

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Paul Maestro

Paul

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Author
  • Popular Post
Posted

Folks, chill out a tad with the banter please, it's all well and good having the odd joke, but when someone says something bantery, is there really a need for 10 virtually identical attempts at the same joke? It just sends the thread way away from the models.

There's a balance to be had here, so lets try to remember what the main point of the thread is.

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Well after that ECM and now the GFS 18z it is definitely time to be concerned.

Time to sit back and see what tomorrow brings.

If it is more of the same we can't blame people for being miserable really, this whole winter has been so near yet so far, very frustrating.

Could be different tomorrow though so not time to give up yet.

 

I'm definetly not concerned.. AO isn't even negative yet, once or IF that occurs.. More tasty charts could occur, and I am not too bothered about NAO staying postive or neutral, in this set up - it's not THAT much of a concern.

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Jason M Experienced

Jason M

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
Posted
1 minute ago, JeffC said:

If we listened to that paper we'd be submerged in 10 ft drifts in the middle of London!

Arguably they have been right. Unfortunately its the wrong type of snow, its 'potential snow'. Its 80 feet deep in my garden now and it just keeps coming. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Mild across the whole of Europe on the 240hrs due to that LP getting stuck over our shores and pumping in milder air. An easterly at that point would be next to useless!

GFSOPEU18_240_2.thumb.png.94b92bd74d779bf83aa37d1a5d1d390c.png

EDIT - back to yet another NW airflow, probably no worse than an easterly in terms of cold!

Ah well, no snow for me this winter ;) 

Edited by kold weather
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sausage Enthusiast

sausage

Posted
Posted

so please next winter can we NOT have the posts that say 'winter hasnt started yet were only in november'. looks silly now doesnt it as i pointed out at the time!

gfs n ukmo n ecm all look good until 168hrs! meto must be seeing something different or thy will hav egg on facrs for many a year to come!!

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russell k Apprentice

russell k

Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
Posted
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Mild across the whole of Europe on the 240hrs due to that LP getting stuck over our shores and pumping in milder air. An easterly at that point would be next to useless!

GFSOPEU18_240_2.thumb.png.94b92bd74d779bf83aa37d1a5d1d390c.png

Check , Mild outliner, best await 120/144. I stand to be corected

 

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