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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Ashford Kent
  • Weather Preferences: 1. Clear skies 2. Cold 3. Snow 4. Hot
  • Location: Ashford Kent
53 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Feel I have an apology to make. 

If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it.

Was feeling fed up (partly due to the way this thread was going and for other reasons). Regardless, I shouldn’t have taken out my frustrations on here by vaporising this thread and leaving people feeling confused and worried as to what happened. 

It wasn’t fair and I didn’t let any members of my team know what I did. Nor anyone on here. I’m sorry for behaving that way and wouldn’t blame anyone for being annoyed. Not really a great example for a mod/host to set. 

While I appreciate some of the damage I likely caused (even though some will probably look back on the mysteriousness of the missing thread and laugh), I will make sure it doesn’t happen again. After all, this thread is meant to be a laid back and fun place for you guys to chat about the models, and would hate to ruin that mood. 

Could have chosen not to have said anything at all, but feel you guys deserved to know the truth! 

What a legend! Funniest thing I've read in ages.  

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Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

Look to the North west snow showers and colder uppers also euro slug further West. 

gfs-2-126.png

Edited by snowice
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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
15 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

OK, so here are the big three (and Icon for fun) at 90/96.  Subtle differences, but over all fairly good agreement thus far I'd say.

ECM image.thumb.png.5d35ef48c824d22293c1677c2450853e.png UKMO image.thumb.png.daecd46552cfca9b342c6184272d25e8.png ICON image.thumb.png.bf9298d7aa4a64e80a9ffcd167f62665.png GFS image.thumb.png.dd37757b8e67856f0b9659f89bfc8e81.png

I'd personally prefer the ecm n easterly and amplified ice land ridge, looks great to me if I'm not mistaken in t-96.❄

Edited by icykev
t-72?
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

That low has always been a slider on previous runs, looks in a position to slide quicker

Its been the low that has been ruining all the global output on the 12z suite, its more that the energy coming from Canada is strengthening the jet and deepening that upper low over the Atlantic to a point where it injects warmer air into our neck of the woods, aka 12z ECM. It does look a little flatter though this time which is good, no circle of death yet!

Also, every GFS ensemble (and every 12z ECM ensemble that I looked at) all went milder at least in the south when the low took the track the 18z GFS is taking, without fail. Lets hope this can break that trend!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GFS with all thats going on in the Atlantic is actually better over America, the PV lobe has been dragged further SE.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Actually, up to 138, while in our locality, it looks worse (and is) the N H profile looks a whole heap better, much more potential for a cross polar flow... The dreaded P word again!

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

OK, comparisons at 138/144

GFS image.thumb.png.60d1da6d6fd5f961e5a21bdb602dce73.png ECM image.thumb.png.a6cc593825cb2400dbbf1ac6e27b5067.png UKMO image.thumb.png.ff5bba043930256646c08f88e0a03570.png

So we are now losing consensus, placing FI around 120

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

So for a noob , what is the optimum position for the Canada Low to affect our weather pattern?

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Looks like a transitionary snow-rain event possibly for some on the 18z GFS as the low forces its way in and injects the WSW airflow into the UK. If only we could stop that PV lobe from exiting when it does, would probably make us lock into a solid cold spell.

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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Nope... It's coming. The pub run is about to put us in the firing line, the evolution to 162 screams Greenland HP cell.

 

Yes, I am awaiting the model-slap-in-the-face!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
2 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

So for a noob , what is the optimum position for the Canada Low to affect our weather pattern?

Why don't you answer the question u asked magnus? .

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Vortex in absolute tatters 

0C3E3F9D-59FE-43D0-9CB8-8A0698B918DA.png

It's a rabbit! Heeyyy, what's up Doc?

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.

12z

 

A26611F6-B1DC-460D-A0C6-6AA2295AB838.thumb.jpeg.1fe76f363ec903f998271ab7a789fd33.jpeg

18z far better positioning this run

DB828DC0-1010-4899-8C1A-01A9011E8CAB.thumb.jpeg.afe29656d855d17844507e167fe2429e.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
26 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I feel sorry for those who are relatively new to the model-based cold chasing game (computer models I should clarify, as fun as the other kind sounds...); it really has been unusually difficult going this year. Not only have cycles of the key driving forces happened to be much less well timed relative to one another than could easily have been the case, but we also saw a very unfortunate precise position and orientation of the stalled trough in the mid-Atlantic during mid-December that greatly limited the cold from the east for us, and then the failed U.S. 'snow bomb' that's prevented a much more notable easterly incursion this week too. So I'm not surprised to see some nerves twanging now that the models have made more of a move toward a trough being very 'trolling' for us next week (though I'm far from convinced at this stage).

With over a decade of close model-watching to my name (alright, don't get any funny ideas now...), I can tell you with confidence that it isn't always this difficult. Plenty of  years past, we've either known there to be little chance of much coming our way anyway (2015-16 for example, and 2013-14 to a lesser extent - due to high solar activity) or seen the potential at hand realised with a lot less struggle (Nov-Dec 2010, Dec-Jan 2009 for example).

It's a bit concerning that the only winter I can recall that comes close to being as difficult as this one has been so far is the one before it, and that's with the dramatic turnaround in Feb! That event was a gigantic pleasant surprise (albeit experienced some way in advance of the event for those tracking tropical drivers).

In theory, next winter should be easier going thanks to the QBO aligning better with the low solar activity. Hopefully that won't go and set the record for the most-in-advance-jinx .

Not forgetting of course that Feb 2019 still holds the most potential of all this winter's months so far, so will take the most poor luck to avoid bringing some noteworthy cold, snowy type weather. Let's see what the weather comes up with... .

I heard somewhere that cold winters generally tend to appear in the year following solar minimum. Not sure how true that is but may bode well for next winter, assuming we are at or near solar minimum right now....

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
1 minute ago, shaky said:

And good night!!what a horrible 168 hour chart!!defo want a change in the morning!!

Horrible? its absolutely primed, look at this NH profile!

 

B084362F-2B0A-423F-B566-9B0AF7811F18.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

12z

 

A26611F6-B1DC-460D-A0C6-6AA2295AB838.thumb.jpeg.1fe76f363ec903f998271ab7a789fd33.jpeg

18z far better positioning this run

DB828DC0-1010-4899-8C1A-01A9011E8CAB.thumb.jpeg.afe29656d855d17844507e167fe2429e.jpeg

Agreed upstream is better, just a shame all the cold air is shifted away by that large upper low heading our way.

I think we may get a decent upper ridge this time which should help to push the upper low near the UK to the south enough to reintroduce colder air, at least for some.

If we could just get this first low a good 500 miles south from where it actually is, we will be game on about a week earlier than likely will be the case on this run!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
Just now, booferking said:

Not much sliding in that low not the only model to blow it up over are shores ah well could all change tomorrow again.

gfs-0-168.png

ECM1-192.gif

Look at the NH profile BK. It's on the way according to this run dude!

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Agreed upstream is better, just a shame all the cold air is shifted away by that large upper low heading our way.

I think we may get a decent upper ridge this time which should help to push the upper low near the UK to the south enough to reintroduce colder air, at least for some.

Wouldn't take long for the cold to surge back South, look at the cold pool waiting behind it..

LOW.thumb.png.ebb6448f3484e5c55de9c61f848ed61c.png

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Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Looks like a transitionary snow-rain event possibly for some on the 18z GFS as the low forces its way in and injects the WSW airflow into the UK. If only we could stop that PV lobe from exiting when it does, would probably make us lock into a solid cold spell.

We can’t stop the PV lobe thou so there really is no need to mention it all the time. The pattern is simply repeating and we will soon be back to a nw/se jet with more chances of cold shots from the NW

Untill the pattern changes that is (if it indeed does)

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