Cold hunt - models and chat

[kold weather]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We need a Snexiteer; and preferably one who will rule-out No Snow! Piers Corbyn???

I vote Tight Isobar, he would talk rings round them all those snowmoaners!

[MattStoke]

26 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Feel I have an apology to make. 

If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it.

Was feeling fed up (partly due to the way this thread was going and for other reasons). Regardless, I shouldn’t have taken out my frustrations on here by vaporising this thread and leaving people feeling confused and worried as to what happened. 

It wasn’t fair and I didn’t let any members of my team know what I did. Nor anyone on here. I’m sorry for behaving that way and wouldn’t blame anyone for being annoyed. Not really a great example for a mod/host to set. 

While I appreciate some of the damage I likely caused (even though some will probably look back on the mysteriousness of the missing thread and laugh), I will make sure it doesn’t happen again. After all, this thread is meant to be a laid back and fun place for you guys to chat about the models, and would hate to ruin that mood. 

Could have chosen not to have said anything at all, but feel you guys deserved to know the truth! 

That is some major bants there

[Timmytour]

You know what they say.....get the cold in first and then....you know Spring's just around the corner!

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I vote Tight Isobar, he would talk rings round them all those snowmoaners!

Sorry he wont do.  He doesn't dodge questions.

 

He is the best cryptic forecaster their is.  I look forward to his deciphering.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Had Worse

[snowbob]

To be fair @DiagonalRedLine

that is not model related

could I kindly ask you to post in the appropriate thread in future. If not it may be removed, or we will be forced to remove your posting privileges 

many thanks

banter team

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by snowbob

[Met4Cast]

Feel I have an apology to make. 

It was actually me that hid and locked the thread. I was annoyed because Danny Dyer kept being posted over and over again and I feel as if this is turning into the Danny Dyer fan forum. It was unprofessional, I could have said nothing but I felt like you all deserved to know the truth! 

Now, onto hunting some cold! The 18z is rolling, I expect FI will be completely different yet again.

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Sparky68 said:

I have a funny feeling Feb is going to be a good month for cold lovers, no data to back that up , just a feeling.

I have that feeling every year!

[Jackski4]

No guys, I have an apology to make...

 

I just don't like weather anymore.. Be sure to check out my new thread titled "Cute puppy pics"

[chionomaniac]

Too much banter. Not enough models.

[Wilxy]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Feel I have an apology to make. 

It was actually me that hid and locked the thread. I was annoyed because Danny Dyer kept being posted over and over again and I feel as if this is turning into the Danny Dyer fan forum. It was unprofessional, I could have said nothing but I felt like you all deserved to know the truth! 

Now, onto hunting some cold! The 18z is rolling, I expect FI will be completely different yet again.

[chionomaniac]

The top of Azores low is less powerful on this run so will cross the country on a more southerly trajectory 

[icykev]

3 hours ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Agree 100%

Agree

[Singularity]

I feel sorry for those who are relatively new to the model-based cold chasing game (computer models I should clarify, as fun as the other kind sounds...); it really has been unusually difficult going this year. Not only have cycles of the key driving forces happened to be much less well timed relative to one another than could easily have been the case, but we also saw a very unfortunate precise position and orientation of the stalled trough in the mid-Atlantic during mid-December that greatly limited the cold from the east for us, and then the failed U.S. 'snow bomb' that's prevented a much more notable easterly incursion this week too. So I'm not surprised to see some nerves twanging now that the models have made more of a move toward a trough being very 'trolling' for us next week (though I'm far from convinced at this stage).

With over a decade of close model-watching to my name (alright, don't get any funny ideas now...), I can tell you with confidence that it isn't always this difficult. Plenty of  years past, we've either known there to be little chance of much coming our way anyway (2015-16 for example, and 2013-14 to a lesser extent - due to high solar activity) or seen the potential at hand realised with a lot less struggle (Nov-Dec 2010, Dec-Jan 2009 for example).

It's a bit concerning that the only winter I can recall that comes close to being as difficult as this one has been so far is the one before it, and that's with the dramatic turnaround in Feb! That event was a gigantic pleasant surprise (albeit experienced some way in advance of the event for those tracking tropical drivers).

In theory, next winter should be easier going thanks to the QBO aligning better with the low solar activity. Hopefully that won't go and set the record for the most-in-advance-jinx .

Not forgetting of course that Feb 2019 still holds the most potential of all this winter's months so far, so will take the most poor luck to avoid bringing some noteworthy cold, snowy type weather. Let's see what the weather comes up with... .

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

The top of Azores low is less powerful on this run so will cross the country on a more southerly trajectory 

Yeah it is actually fairly noticeable difference from the 12z run at the same point.

Catacol has posted an AWESOME post in the other model thread explaining what may have gone wrong with the cold spell that the models have been trying to produce. Very interesting and feeds a tropical explanation as to why the Canadian PV has been so strong and why its kept reverting a more zonal pattern (well, NW for us, but even so...)

[chionomaniac]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Yeah it is actually fairly noticeable difference from the 12z run at the same point.

Catacol has posted an AWESOME post in the other model thread explaining what may have gone wrong with the cold spell that the models have been trying to produce. Very interesting and feeds a tropical explanation as to why the Canadian PV has been so strong and why its kept reverting a more zonal pattern (well, NW for us, but even so...)

Except that it strengthened later so hasn’t made much of a difference. Off to read catacols post

[Ice Day]

OK, so here are the big three (and Icon for fun) at 90/96.  Subtle differences, but over all fairly good agreement thus far I'd say.

ECM  UKMO  ICON  GFS 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Ice Day

[Sparky68]

10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I have that feeling every year!

Ed I have these same feelings every Tuesday and Friday throughout the year, then the Euro Lotto numbers come out and I'm gutted again. Be thankful you just have 3 months of pain

[snowice]

Gfs pub run could see alot of snow showers on Sunday. 

[Duane S.]

8 hours ago, s4lancia said:

Great 06z runs! Nice to see the GFS(P) on it as well.

Hoping for another decent MJO update later this afternoon. Last few days have been small day on day improvements. The main one being getting in and out of P5 sharpish and on towards P6. Secondly better and better amplification within.

Just catching up with the day’s charts. MJO daily improvements continue I see...

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Just catching up with the day’s charts. MJO daily improvements continue I see...

Is that a predicted 7

sorry if wrong

only just learning mjo this week

[Wilxy]

Much better and in line with ICON!

[Weathizard]

Cleaner again with that energy phasing over Greenland 

[shaky]

Not liking this could be even worse between 144 and 168 hours!!

[WhiteFox]

3 minutes ago, snowbob said:

Is that a predicted 7

sorry if wrong

only just learning mjo this week

It looks increasingly probable that it will make it into phase 7 at a reasonable amplitude. Positive for blocking in better positions for us ..

[kold weather]

Low off Canada doesn't look in a great position at the moment at 126hrs...may not be the run we are looking for but still time for change!