Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks. 100 asl
9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line. 

fax96s (2).gif

fax72s (2).gif

Yes. Following the way winter is going.

As long as the Canadian vortex is stuck there feeding low thicknesses to our w/nw we're stuck in this rut imo.

Just cant see where any big seperation up that way is coming from.

Edited by joggs
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah there are probably 3 decent snow events before the whole thing goes wrong, in that regrard the shorter range is quite a decent upgrade compared to the 00z.

Maybe it might be best to forget about that cold northerly that was previously forecasted and just focus on the nearer time which has got some potential, if marginal, snow events. We may miss something right in front of us whilst trying to reach for the impossible?

Considering that's more than we get most winters, I'd say it's a good run.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
  • Location: South Kilkenny, Ireland
17 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

There have been downgrades in the very short term. These seem to have gone under the radar on here. One of the best examples is the updated 72hr fax chart for Saturday. Compare it the 96hr for the same day from yesterday. The new update is much flatter and much less inspiring for cold further down the line. 

fax96s (2).gif

fax72s (2).gif

correct although probably would see northerly follow soon after.....however it goes to show that even at T72 to 96 hours things are changing and evolving every run....and another reason why peeps should not be calling winters over because of a poor chart at 192 or 384 hours when the charts will look different again tomorrow even in much shorter range .. ...for better or for worse 

Edited by Bottled Snow
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
3 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

Don't panic!!!! The background signals will save us!!!! 

They actually will! Feb will be a beast of a month. 

When we are digging ourselves out and BBC breakfast is all of a flutter.....we can sit back and bask ;) 

Edited by chris55
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire

Are we back? :pardon:

Edited by matt111
  • Like 6
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

Canadian lobe ruining everything as usual. Wish it would bloody do one, it killed that potential easterly last week, and could ruin what may be a good north/northeasterly into February. So frustrating.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the 12z ECM are...still all over the shop.

As with the GFS, two broad camps emerge, one that sharpens the mid atlantic ridge as the PV lobe rotates NE towards W.Greenland. The other one sends it into the Atlantic a little like the OP run from the ECM+GFS.

The op runs are certainly the form horse at the moment, but still options out there.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Да! Да! Oui! Oui! Yes! Yes! It was only a gremlin...? Terror at 20,000 Feet!

Models not looking quite so stonking tonight?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex

I am still not convinced. Within 2 days, the start of Feb will be coming into the semi reliable. Things need to start showing their hand very soon.

Edited by Paul
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
  • Location: North of Glasgow 105 msl
59 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Considering that's more than we get most winters, I'd say it's a good run.

Yes were back, agreed lots more in the next 4/5 days and even after that opportunities for cold and snow continue, better than most winters ECM op maybe an outliner for central UK, don't often post but I think expectations are too high against the return of the beast, lots of un expected snow yesterday, expect that be the trend post 144 ...anywhere

K

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

The GEFS 12z mean indicates significantly colder next week with more chance of snow (less marginal!)❄️

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham

Is there some kind of telephone counselling service for all of this?....you know, dial 1 for GFS....dial 2 for ECM.....dial 3 for UKMO....dial 4 if there is a Poxy Bloody Canadian Lobe....or to hear these options again....

Edited by Jason74
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
1 minute ago, Matty M said:

image.thumb.png.0e17ca3d06c2d69e1c39191400eae030.pngimage.thumb.png.2ff3394589d5916cf5171c55f8d3003b.pngDublin and London, please do not repost.

They're both Dublin.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Dublin and London, please do not repost.

Matty - I can only see Dublin here?  

 

**As above.  Please delete mods.

Edited by P-M
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM op continues to be less than interested in developing a decent ridge to the nw and now seems to be retrogressing the pattern .

We don’t want a halfway house with troughing stuck over the UK .

If the pattern is to back west then we want that to accelerate to bring the Russian high with it .

The earlier ECM wasn’t bad and that could deliver several snow chances , the diving troughing at day 6 was interesting .

We need the next upstream low to be weaker.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London
  • Location: Kilburn, NW London

If the rest of winter is a bust, at least ive seen baseball sized snowflakes yesterday, biggest ive seen in my 49 years lol

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

 

1 minute ago, Matty M said:

image.thumb.png.0e17ca3d06c2d69e1c39191400eae030.pngimage.thumb.png.2ff3394589d5916cf5171c55f8d3003b.pngDublin and London, please do not repost.

Was do they look like for London? That would be a better indicator I feel in this set-up as to what the broad lay of the land is.

The individual members are still something of a mess, but eyeballing it, it does look like there is more colder options than milder ones, though still considerable uncertainties with it.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Matty M said:

Apols....London

image.thumb.png.091e88a1599e3da5b4143c5f7a5440b3.pngimage.thumb.png.3b328d9f8f89fbf823075d0b4bb90581.pngLondon...Manchester

Thanks, more support for cold BUT with a considerable minority going with the operational run. That's still finely balanced then. Great to see it in chart form, especially as it does kind of back the eyeballing of the individual runs.

Also cooler further north with less milder runs, backing up the idea that the LP crosses the UK at some point o the 31-1st Feb and where it does makes a big difference temperature wise.

Still, with both the GFS and eCm ops on the warm end, as well as the GEM+UKMO trending much worse...what is it the ops are seeing that the other enemsble members aren't?

 

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...