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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Very decent notion 96 ecm..

mlb doing us lots of favours..

no pessimism here!!

snow chances..MASSIVE..

ECM1-96.gif

At last a post that makes sense let’s hope it lands.

ps I don’t mean you that don’t make sense I mean generally in here this evening lol

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jules216 Experienced

jules216

Posted
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
  • Weather Preferences: continental climate
  • Location: Roznava (Slovakia) formerly Hollywood, Co Wicklow
Posted

There is no high latitude blocking present on our side of hemisphere on any operational outputs so far on todays 12Z up to 384H - GFS,GFSP,UKMO,GEM,ICON. So far MLB at best and no sign of any significant cold spell anywhere near UK.

There are some days with colder uppers with transitory snow chances, but that is it. So far I am yet to be convinced, even the blocked ensembles have a limited supply of cold pool, as most of the vortex is situated near north America as you can see on ensemble mean. Do not want to sound pessimistic but this is what I have seen so far on 12Z. 

gensnh-21-0-336.png

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Chris, it would come around 168-192hrs as that large area of lower thickness/pressure forces the jet into the westerly pattern it has on the 12z GFS, you'd keep a cool WNW probably till then, but the LP would come into the Atlantic and eventually turn winds WSW/SW, once again like GFS. I've made a post which has been quoted in the other thread explaining how that would work in practice.

96hrs and the ECM handling of the upper vortex over the US and swinging into Canada looks better for us...but hard to know without seeing the 96-120hrs progress whether its going to make any difference.

a) you can't possibly be certain of that

b) you're really overanalysing every frame in an ever changing situation.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Very close run thing on 120hrs ECM. The 144hrs will be very telling, remember watch what the low thickness does over Canada. A generally north motion of any kind will be good for a cold shot at the end of Jan. Any south, and it increasingly kills that cold shot dead for most.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)

@120..

Its screaming.. look out of my window synops..

And we have the backing of both formats...and indeed.. what has been flagging 4 a while..

Whats not yo be happy about???

Some are like my missus..

Not EASILY PLEASED!!

ECM0-120.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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NeilN Aficionado

NeilN

Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
Posted
1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

Suggesting double digits for some on Saturday..

I actually don't buy it. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Johnp said:

a) you can't possibly be certain of that

b) you're really overanalysing every frame in an ever changing situation.

A: Your right, but I'm 95% sure that's how it would pan out based on the fact that its almost identical to the 00z ECM and the 12z GFS with that upper low.

B: Well I was right with the easterly wasn't I in calling it 'dead Jim' before most others did...sometimes it pays to overanalyse. IF you know WHERE to over-analyse!

Lets hope this ECM bucks the recent trend it has had on this 144hrs chart!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

Erm....what model does ITV use as they seem to overcook temperatures? 

The 1947 model: image.thumb.png.48235d3c85641777b4d66403daeac4f5.png When it forecasts Snowmageddon, Snowmageddon's what you get!:cold: 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Detail different but theme similar. Look at the pv! People need to stop looking in detail past t120 it’s for fun only. 

537505B0-7C66-4DE1-854F-812162EAA1B2.png

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NeilN Aficionado

NeilN

Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
Posted
Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Neither do I tbh.. maybe 6-8'c, I can see..

This is why I disbelieve weather forecasts. The BBC downplay things and are neither here nor there. I still don't get why Ian Ferguson is always on the roof on Points West. Is my regional channel hard-up? 

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chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted
6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Chris, it would come around 168-192hrs as that large area of lower thickness/pressure forces the jet into the westerly pattern it has on the 12z GFS, you'd keep a cool WNW probably till then, but the LP would come into the Atlantic and eventually turn winds WSW/SW, once again like GFS. I've made a post which has been quoted in the other thread explaining how that would work in practice.

96hrs and the ECM handling of the upper vortex over the US and swinging into Canada looks better for us...but hard to know without seeing the 96-120hrs progress whether its going to make any difference.

Surely that UKMO 144 chart going forward would see an undercut by the trough to the west, with the Greenland heights being sustained. Just look at the negative tilt and WAA. A ‘collapse’ or ‘topple’ doesn’t look likely I me. 

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM0-144.GIF?23-0

Now this is more like it ECM. Southerly tracking jet, no time for mild sectors to bed in before the next NWly. The snow is really going to pile up in the north on this run. 

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Suggesting double digits for some on Saturday..

will be, Saturday is looking mild, 

image.thumb.png.42d305b872e6d5b916e27ddc259de9ca.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Suggesting double digits for some on Saturday..

For 1 they use stale data pref..

And secondly..thats b4 the arch of mild sector rears..

After that its a rapids cold front bearing..

And everything quickly downturns..throughout temp gradients.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Man With Beard said:

ECM0-144.GIF?23-0

Now this is more like it ECM. Southerly tracking jet, no time for mild sectors to bed in before the next NWly. The snow is really going to pile up in the north on this run. 

Much better orientation this run for sure on that low, uppers do look cold enough for snow as well down to low levels on this run once that cold air comes in from the NW.

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 hours ago, Yarmy said:

Not on any of the GEFS, either. What a joke.

Don't forget the snow in the se today came for on a low that formed over the UK, that wasn't picked up by some models at all. And the gfs did pick it up about 48 hours out I think, may be later. So I would not discount this low yet.

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