Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This thread is bizarre at times, so winter is over is it?

if we take the 1st Feb as a date 

2018 archives-2018-2-1-0-0.thumb.png.155cd40c287ff561c0f700e40848a4b6.png archivesnh-2018-2-1-0-0.thumb.png.28fea71efa3ca74acce260690b3cec1e.png quite similar to the current pattern / possible repeated pattern moving forward with the  ridge in the Atlantic and the low bringing in a northerly, was winter over then? no that was  3+ weeks before the beast from the east began to show its hand

1st February 2016 archivesnh-2016-2-1-0-0.thumb.png.0ffc8cb99f585f0711f627f725f89329.png  the winter of 2015 / 16, now that is a better example of a "zonal" chart with a harder / unlikely route to cold - Winter 2015/16 was third-warmest for the UK in a series from 1910, behind the winters of 1989 and 2007. For England and Wales, it was the warmest winter in the series. December 2015 (UK anomaly + 4.1 °C) was easily the warmest December for both the UK and the Central England Temperature (CET) series from 1659. Remarkably, December had the highest positive anomaly for any month in the CET series by a margin of well over 1 °C. In comparison temperatures in January (UK anomaly +0.9 °C) and February (+ 0.2 °C) were mostly unremarkable. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016/winter are we in that kind of position this year? chart from the 12z GFS which is causing unnecessary panic gfsnh-0-216.thumb.png.6b1e2bca123f9abcd3f10840da9c8ddd.png even if that chart ends up being realistic  I would say it is still better than the 2016 chart with better heights toward Russia and trying to build into the Arctic and also the PV slowly draining away from Canada / Greenland whereas the PV lobe was stronger toward Greenland back in 2016.

1st February 2015 archivesnh-2015-2-1-0-0.thumb.png.35ee6e6494418d8f4d3c1883e0be368d.png perhaps some similarities with northerlies etc but a pretty strong PV compared to where we could end up this year - At the start of the month, the UK was under the influence of a cold northerly weather type - Snow and ice caused some limited disruption during the cold spell of weather from 1st to 6th  - After a spell of settled weather, from 20th onwards there were some impacts from ice and snow across northern areas,  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/february

1st February 2014 archivesnh-2014-2-1-0-0.thumb.png.74e159d2fdf012fa7cf911a92e7dd484.png again another example of "zonal" conditions - February was another stormy, very unsettled and wet month.- However, conditions were mild with any snow confined to the Scottish mountains. It was a mild month with the UK mean temperature 5.2 °C, which is 1.5 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, and the number of air frosts among the lowest in the last 50 years. The UK overall received 191% of average rainfall, making it the 3rd wettest February in the historical series. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/february I think we would be very unlucky to end up with anything as zonal / mild as that this year.

I think that is enough to highlight my point that we have been in much less favourable positions at this point of winter in the past and given the SSW and the downwelling only now beginning to have its say on conditions and the MJO possibly heading back toward a more favourable position I think writing winter off now is nothing short of crazy given how quickly things could yet develop for a colder outlook to take hold. 

Best post on here for ages.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire

Good to see the GFS still showing a decent north westerly from Tuesday with snow showers pushing into Northern Ireland, Western Scotland and NW England.

C6FDAF93-6347-4129-9C6E-259BAA9EF397.thumb.png.ac05a8bc788f91d33865e185bba4aefe.png

D7AC1F8E-1994-4E9E-9827-7AF84D00D58B.thumb.png.caa209411c1fd2b16257f9676a3dd563.png

83AF7C40-435F-4477-9882-CB76FB6DAC75.thumb.png.ae8a1a3520d4ac354682ca149bbd5a17.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS UKMO re absolutely not the same at 144, UKMo far more appealing..

UKM

image.thumb.png.8db0dab1ab47b1ddce55ed7adc4ed722.png

GFS

image.thumb.png.7b81a8690552fc7c2cc6f4f891b31e9f.png

I know where I'd put my money!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS UKMO re absolutely not the same at 144, UKMo far more appealing..

UKM

image.thumb.png.8db0dab1ab47b1ddce55ed7adc4ed722.png

GFS

image.thumb.png.7b81a8690552fc7c2cc6f4f891b31e9f.png

But what do they have in common?...yes the Azores slug will stay there but just oriented differently, some chilly days ahead but certainly not the Freeze the majority of us want...the models will drive me to drink (ah Ladyboys).

 

 

maxresdefault.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
1 hour ago, Banbury said:

Not sure why the NEly or Ely make a difference many areas in Oxfordshire had a good covering of snow yesterday evening - I wish people would stop the fascination with winds from the East.

Good point. Sustained (5 days+)  Easterlies or North Easterlies, with real 'punch' in Winter, are actually quite rare for the UK.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

UKMO and GFS ARE similar in where they are putting the broad pieces. Of course there difference in surface pressure but *look* at the UIMO progress from 120-144hrs and notice over the states where that PV .lobe is going....its going SE into the Atlantic.

Take a look at the GFS 120-144hrs over the states (nOT the low pressure, follow the purple low thickness) where is it going, SE into the Atlantic.

That is the feature to watch as it is a direct lobe of the PV splitting off, and that is why I'm confident the UKMO follows the GFS+00z ECM at least until 240hrs because that track of the upper low into the Atlantic, quite clearly lots of energy about to head into the Atlantic based on that 144hrs UKMO, perhaps even more than the GFS.

 

TBH i disagree Kold,

Look at the tilt of the azores high on the two models, there is a huge difference there..

Anyway, i respect your opinion so guess we will have to see how it all unfolds..

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
4 minutes ago, P-M said:

Maybe not in your locale however someone did post from a northern London suburb and it showed a decent covering - point being snow fell in the London area / south east in modest amounts or in any case it wasn't limited to northern hills as keeps being spouted around.

Oxfordshire did well also - I'm amazed at some people on here ( not you ) Daventry is 20 miles from here , last year they got 4" of snow one evening Banbury missed the lot, snowfall can be so local 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
9 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

So this is the 'hunt for cold model thread' yet you don't think people should look past 5 days  on the models? . 

Yes because trends and model agreements can't be found after five days can they?   

Not what I am saying at all..

I do understand we look for trends further than 5 days out, but realistically you get people getting in a fit and having a rant because a model isn't perfect or fit for what they want, usually that model is showing an outcome 10days away. Therefore will change.

Just people need to lighten up and stop worrying.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH i disagree Kold,

Look at the tilt of the azores high on the two models, there is a huge difference there..

Anyway, i respect your opinion so guess we will have to see how it all unfolds..

The UKMO is better over the Greenland plateau with a higher surface pressure.  You would therefore expect a more Southerly jet and colder air into Britain and Ireland.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le

Not sure if this is relevant for this thread but I have been looking at the Airport TAFS more particular Scandinavia and the striking thing is that most of the Airport TAFS over there are dominated by Sunshine where

Normally they would be showing quite a bit of snow Now my model Knowledge is not that great but could this be a sign of a Scandi HP starting to set up??

C.S

 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS UKMO re absolutely not the same at 144, UKMo far more appealing..

UKM

image.thumb.png.8db0dab1ab47b1ddce55ed7adc4ed722.png

GFS

image.thumb.png.7b81a8690552fc7c2cc6f4f891b31e9f.png

It baffles me how anyone could disagree.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

TBH i disagree Kold,

Look at the tilt of the azores high on the two models, there is a huge difference there..

Anyway, i respect your opinion so guess we will have to see how it all unfolds..

Hi mate, the Azores high looks t4he same to me, remember to ignore the surface features and concentrate where the lower/higher thicknesses are. That will give you of a clue of where things are. In this case both models have the Azores high ridging about the same amount. Where is the highest thickness both runs...yep, just east of the Azores.

Maybe a visual will help show the of the drivers, and why the runs are actually synoptically VERY similar.

GFSOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.7fca89d2e3f1d4a5a4af532229ff8dfa.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.589cb069b0851647319301ef752b9cd0.png

1: Is the PV lobe that is heading SE. This force the jet onto a flatter trajectory which in turn flattens out any ridging. We saw the consequences of that in the GFS run. It is IMO by far the biggest part of this puzzle. ECM is nearly the same as well on its 00z run.

2: Is interesting, that is a weak high pressure cell, probably given the space to breathe due to No.3 being differently modelled. But the GFS is evolving it in the same way, just a little less robustly. BUT that sort of high is not the sort of high to stop the PV lobe (no.1) from coming south-eastwards

3: Is the main LP that is meant to come SE towards out shores. This is the feature isn't quite as well formed on the UKMO so the uppers aren't quite as cold.

I hope that helps explain why I think they are similar? It is just my opinon and I suppose you could again call it over-analyse, but there ya go!

Surface pressure do not make a pattern, but the 500mbs reflection usually will as that reflects the upper levels better (aka the lower part of the jet would be close to here).

Edited by kold weather
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Just now, Mucka said:

GFS 192 mean, hardly a disaster.

gensnh-21-1-192.png

I think we need to remain calm, i wont deny i'm a bit like a sine wave at the moment myself, i was feeling quite downbeat this morning.

Maybe we need a bit of luck? Gawd knows we are due some

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

Sadly that’s the problem with this thread. It has people saying things like “not a fag paper between them” I actually thought it was sarcasm. There’s huge differences between them and UKMO is way more encouraging. Some posters here either need specsavers or go to the learning section of the site before they make such stark statements.

 

ill stick to the other thread from here on.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Well I it's escalated on here phew!!! Yes the 12z gFS isn't fantastic imo altho I thought the icon looked very good.the main problem is the PV to the north west and it's lows.if your looking for any good ridging towards greenland or to the east of it the low needs to go up the west coast with its accompening waa.if not the low likeon the 12z will flatten the ridging.i can't see the ukmo +144 hrs holding back the PV and any lows traveling south east.chillbout btw it's only weather!!!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Hi mate, the Azores high looks t4he same to me, remember to ignore the surface features and concentrate where the lower/higher thicknesses are. That will give you of a clue of where things are. In this case both models have the Azores high ridging about the same amount, but there is a difference in location.

Maybe a visual will help show the of the drivers, and why the runs are actually synoptically VERY similar.

GFSOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.7fca89d2e3f1d4a5a4af532229ff8dfa.pngUKMOPEU12_120_1.thumb.png.589cb069b0851647319301ef752b9cd0.png

1: Is the PV lobe that is heading SE. This force the jet onto a flatter trajectory which in turn flattens out any ridging. We saw the consequences of that in the GFS run. It is IMO by far the biggest part of this puzzle. ECM is nearly the same as well on its 00z run.

2: Is interesting, that is a weak high pressure cell, probably given the space to breathe due to No.3 being differently modelled. But the GFS is evolving it in the same way, just a little less robustly. BUT that sort of high is not the sort of high to stop the PV lobe (no.1) from coming south-eastwards

3: Is the main LP that is meant to come SE towards out shores. This is the feature isn't quite as well formed on the UKMO so the uppers aren't quite as cold.

I hope that helps explain why I think they are similar? It is just my opinon and I suppose you could again call it over-analyse, but there ya go!

No worries mate

The difference become more noticeable at 144 but  its cool to disagree, we can do that in a respectful manner

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Much better placement of the upper low over Canada on the 12z GFS para, this should be a better run, especially for the southern half ad they will get the cold this time!

We should know by 120hrs by the way whether the ECM will be good or not tonight, all depends on what it does with that upper low.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Aviemore
  • Location: Aviemore

Just as a reminder for those wanting a slower-paced, less bantery model discussion, you can head over to the focused model thread here:

As a suggestion to people wanting to get involved in there, but unsure what sort of thing to post - a great place to start may be to post a summary of your views on the latest model run (eg the GFS 12Z at this point), or maybe the suite of models up to this point today. They'll be good to read, and a good starting point for more discussions I'm sure  

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...