Cold hunt - models and chat

[Weathizard]

Winter is over Sowesterlies anyone? Lol don’t get your knickers in a twist, let’s await the ensembles.

Remember it’s only just over half way through winter proper, calm heads needed.

[Guest]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I tried encouraging people to reduce their expectations a couple of hours ago and was slated for it.

Without proper Northerly blocking we will be at the mercy of the permanent NE Canadian PV.

I’ve been warned for being too negative - careful. But yes the Canadian Vortex won’t be going anywhere this year and it’ll ruin run after run before d10.

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is trully awfaul.

Its not quite as bad as you think, still some possibility down the line.

However it is a big set back that is for sure, and the pattern upstream doesn't look amplified to any major degree so any cold still probably 3-5 days away from 180hrs on this GFS run.

Still, I did warn people to take heed of that 00z ECM this morning, its usually been a trend setter this winter...and you always need to pay attention when it locks onto the same thing for 3-4 runs soild whilst all other models are flipping around.

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[Paul_1978]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I like UKMO 144..

Should go colder from there..

Surely that is a snowy chart and not just rain?

[MP-R]

7 minutes ago, Banbury said:

What were yesterday evenings 850's 

-6C in the north and about -5C across most of the south, hence the marginality.

[Updated_Weather]

From when I spoke to a Met Office person on Twitter, he said that they are waiting mainly til Friday-Sunday to come to any conclusions on the outcome from next week - Also we still have this going negative, in my opinion.. Models will still be playing around with different scernios (depsite not being far apart)

I am certainly not worried about anything at the moment, we know it gets colder from Sunday - From then, things still remain interesting

[DIS1970]

Slowly going pear shaped again, back to standard UK weather.

[Guest]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Winter is over Sowesterlies anyone? Lol don’t get your knickers in a twist, let’s await the ensembles.

Remember it’s only just over half way through winter proper, calm heads needed.

What winter is that? There’s five weeks left of winter is all. After that most will be hunting warmth. I detest cold in spring.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I tried encouraging people to reduce their expectations a couple of hours ago and was slated for it.

Without proper Northerly blocking we will be at the mercy of the permanent NE Canadian PV.

None of these awful runs have actually verified yet though. There is too much negativity and stress in here for my liking at times likes this.

I find that if you spend too much time in a negative environment others follow on the downward spiral into negativity.  

Best to look at the model runs then say to one's self, sod that ain't going into the mod thread this evening 

Edited January 23, 2019 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[joggs]

7 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Not that dissimilar to the UKMO but GFS looks much more progressive in the Atlantic

Yes,the low out west looks like phasing with the one over us.

All too west based.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

FI is currently around 72 hours... 

Yet people loose the plot over charts at T+120...

GFS notorious for blowing up low pressure systems 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Surrey

[tight isobar]

The nor easterly signal remains!!!

And tbf..is gaining on the raw time shots..

Also an evolving/consistant format of a decent split...

!!

 

Neither should be ignored now..as the gain is catching the eye.

Edited January 23, 2019 by tight isobar

[blizzard81]

We've got no chance from here. That low to the west of Ireland is a true limpet. Seen it so many times before. I wasn't expecting this to be honest. How cruel this game can be. 

[Weathizard]

Just a little bit of difference between the last 2 runs... Shannon entropy out in full force. But the doomsdayers will be lauding the 12z as correct when in reality it’s a single run.

[frosty ground]

The general pattern of the 12z Runs really isn't that different from previous runs and it's all within the envelope of what is being shown across the board.

 

[igloo]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Yep. The ecm is certainly more king when it comes to spotting less cold solutions unfortunately. The writing is on the wall for this winter. 

yes the ecm had this nailed from yesterday with that deep low flattening the pattern at +168h just like the case last week with that phantom easterly it was the first to spot the failure of that also it does look like this ssw event looks like a failure this time round just  read the mets long rang forecast 

Edited January 23, 2019 by igloo

[MattStoke]

I think calling that GFS run 'awful' is a bit of an exaggeration. -8 uppers and unstable - Certainly cold enough for snow even to quite low levels. Uppers were higher than that yesterday and even people in the low laying, southern Urban Heat Island of London saw settling snow.

Edited January 23, 2019 by MattStoke

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

You agree with my question? how Bizarre maybe its best you don't answer it if you can't?

Well, if you want certainty as to when and where it will snow in around a weeks time, I presume you have God on speed dial.

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

We've got no chance from here. That low to the west of Ireland is a true limpet. Seen it so many times before. I wasn't expecting this to be honest. How cruel this game can be. 

You're worrying about a chart that is how far away? How many changes have we gone through in that time period.. Relax man.

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, joggs said:

Yes,the low out west looks like phasing with the one over us.

All too west based.

What is west based?

[Paul_1978]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

We've got no chance from here. That low to the west of Ireland is a true limpet. Seen it so many times before. I wasn't expecting this to be honest. How cruel this game can be. 

You trust a 12z 198 hour chart that bears no resemblance to the 06z?

Edited January 23, 2019 by Paul_1978
Typos

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

You agree with my question? how Bizarre maybe its best you don't answer it if you can't?

A lot would depend on how convective it was...but my best guess is wintry is the best way to describe it on the 144hrs, due to factors I've previously mentioned (warmer boundary level due to higher SSTs on a west track, 850hpa temps looking marginal, etc). Yesterday was good for some places BUT that required a very active trough, good timing (aka coming at night) and the prolonged nature of the precipitation dragged the snow line down enough. For example I'm about 20 miles south of Reading and got diddly because it came just a little bit earlier and the rain wasn't heavy enough, hence just rain with a touch of sleet at the end.

[Banbury]

3 minutes ago, MP-R said:

-6C in the north and about -5C across most of the south, hence the marginality.

So good enough for snow -5 is always nearly the level 

[karlos1983]

This thread is absolutely hilarious sometimes! Today really has been quite something to behold  

heres an explanation in song

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by karlos1983

[blizzard81]

Just now, frosty ground said:

The general pattern of the 12z Runs really isn't that different from previous runs and it's all within the envelope of what is being shown across the board.

 

That may be true but the difference on the ground for the UK is immense. Let's be honest - that's all that really counts.