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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Yarmy Maestro

Yarmy

Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, shaky said:

I assume ukmo develops it aswell as it looks the same as gfs at 72 hours!!so operationals might have picked up on it!!

It does have it:

UW48-21.GIF?23-17

It doesn't look as developed as on the GFS, but that's probably just because the UKMO output resolution is coarser.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Models are looking very ECM 00z 'ish' at the moment out to 144hrs. Not bad but we need to watch the low pressure feature goes if we are to avoid something unwelcome coming in.

Might not be the best of runs coming for the south, but too early to say!

Edited by kold weather
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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted

Low to the north west could bomb the run out here at 138 hrs!!! That low earlier seems to have stopped the ridging in situ

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, swfc said:

Low to the north west could bomb the run out here at 138 hrs!!! That low earlier seems to have stopped the ridging in situ

It should still be on the same general heading as the last few, so it may not necessarily be bad, but it does remind me a lot of the ECM 00z this morning with that flabby low preventing cold air coming down into a large portion of the country.

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swfc Veteran

swfc

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

myLooks like its on the standard NW/SE trajectory to me 

my point is it was moving north east on the 6z.its now trying to flatten the ridge

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-7.GIF?23-17UW144-21.GIF?23-17

It's not warm, but is it cold enough for snow?

Only for high ground, looks like a classic hill snow chart to me, may be wintry showers might be another way to describe that.

ECM once again proving why it is the king of the models, all the models falling in line with it...as I kind of feared...though as I've previously doesn't mean we won't get a cold spell, just a greater chance of a bust, that's all.

Edited by kold weather
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

UW144-7.GIF?23-17UW144-21.GIF?23-17

It's not warm, but is it cold enough for snow?

To low levels in the South?, unlikely. Up a hill in the North? Possibly.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

GFS not a million miles away fro the UKMO at +144

image.thumb.png.898b540e13b56f37ed0ebaccbd1bfe05.pngimage.thumb.png.94b10e19c64b2020249ffece3ae3e9f6.png 

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It should still be on the same general heading as the last few, so it may not necessarily be bad, but it does remind me a lot of the ECM 00z this morning with that flabby low preventing cold air coming down into a large portion of the country.

What time frame are you referring to?

gfs-1-144.png?12

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P-M Seasoned

P-M

Posted
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Boldon, South Tyneside (Tyne & Wear) 271ft ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Only for high ground, looks like a classic hill snow chart to me, may be wintry showers might be another way to describe that.

ECM once again proving why it is the king of the models, all the models falling in line with it...as I kind of feared...

Hill snow is all people mention just like recently yet areas of London got a decent covering.  Have you any charts to back up the "hill snow" scenario?  Not picking you up personally as I know others are saying this, but sweeping statements when the details are far from ironed out don't really help. 

Edited by P-M
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Banbury Experienced

Banbury

Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
Posted
2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Only for high ground, looks like a classic hill snow chart to me, may be wintry showers might be another way to describe that.

ECM once again proving why it is the king of the models, all the models falling in line with it...as I kind of feared...though as I've previously doesn't mean we won't get a cold spell, just a greater chance of a bust, that's all.

What were yesterday evenings 850's 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

12z trends looking ominous. The gfs 12z op is looking very ecm op esq to say the least and I don't like the ukmo 144 chart. My optimism is waning again. Is it just going to be one of those winters I wonder? Had many of those in my life time. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted

Well 12z GFS is a near identical match for the 00z ECM apart from a slightly stronger LP. That's what you call a match!

No real upstream ridging so on this run out to 168hrs PV is by far the more dominant force so we are probably going to be dependent on wedges coming into play on this run to help us, otherwise this could get bleak...

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

All rather pah at the moment. Bowling ball lows not wanting to shred up the West of Greenland says it all really. As you were.

Edited by DCee
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Anything more concrete other than just guess work?

If you're asking me to say where and when it will be snowing in 5 or 6 days time, the answer is, if i knew the answer to that, i would be a millionaire.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Only for high ground, looks like a classic hill snow chart to me, may be wintry showers might be another way to describe that.

ECM once again proving why it is the king of the models, all the models falling in line with it...as I kind of feared...

Yep. The ecm is certainly more king when it comes to spotting less cold solutions unfortunately. The writing is on the wall for this winter. 

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
1 minute ago, Banbury said:

What were yesterday evenings 850's 

About -6/7C I'd say, worth noting if you didn't get the heavy convection, there was no snow, so I for example had just rain and backedge sleety stuff due to the precip not being intense enough. The heavy showers (and they were impressive) helped drag that snow level down, as did the persistence of it.

UKMO has slightly higher values...BUT the air source is from the west so the boundary level is going to be moderated by even milder SSTs than yesterday on its way here, probably what makes it the wrong side of marginal for me unless you have altitude.

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is trully awfaul.

Without proper Northerly blocking we will be at the mercy of the permanent NE Canadian PV.

Edited by Paul
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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

No i am asking if that chart supports snow, there are some knowledgeable people on here that can give a reasoned answer without flipping a coin

At that range, I agree, it does support snow, but primarily with altitude in the North and West of Britain and Ireland.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 12z is trully awfaul.

We should never trust the gfs 06 op and suite when it goes ultra amplified. It never verifies. 

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