Cold hunt - models and chat

[Weathizard]

9 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Chance the downwelling may make the models a LOT more reliable from here on out?

The opposite, expect chaos (more than usual)

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

The opposite, expect chaos (more than usual)

Oh boy, this forum is certainly keeping my heart pumping...

[Purga]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

As time ticks by, seems likely that the scandi ridge gains more and more opportunity to establish with the predicted tpv location - later week 2 favoured but that could accelerate 

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

Manyana for the scandi ridge perhaps .... we’re talking about where the HLB is likely which probably isn’t going to be any time soon ...

[Cuban Zebra]

I think “dreckly” better describes this winter!!

[Methuselah]

45 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Para - short for paradise

 

Or - as in the case of Friday night 'stonkers' - paralytic!

[ICE COLD]

Well if you were purely going off the GFS/GEFS 6z you would be inclined to think there is a quite decent cold spell from the 27th . Looks good on the graph , plenty of snow chances

[Had Worse]

38 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

6z swignometers

Potential cold spell from the arctic waiting in the wings, potentially for the end of January. Many of the runs show potential snow showers under a cold northerly wind with potential gales. There are some potential stonkers in there, most notably the parallel which has a potentially very cold flow from the NE. We could conclude from the swingometers that a potential northerly is likely but at the moment it is just potential.

 

As we get a little further into February, things may potentially be getting milder as there aren't as many runs with good potential for northern blocking. There are plenty of runs which show cold potential however. I like P4 with its potential easterly further down the line.

 

 

When the plot flatlines at the top, is that an indication that we have won a northerly / Easterly?

I wondered what the 'Y' axis was measuring, perhaps you can explain?  Potential?

Edited January 23, 2019 by Had Worse

[fluid dynamic]

15 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Oh boy, this forum is certainly keeping my heart pumping...

I get you, wow its exciting. I headed over for a sneek at the previously riotous, but now 'ever so serious' thread just now where there was in-depth analysis of clusters, hypotheses and all manner of three latter acroynoms (TLAs) flying at maybe one per hour. Some of those posters are hell bent on getting it right, and all credit to them, but just now and again one pipes up with the lesson to end them all: The weather will do what it wants. Amazeballs. Stay here, its benign but its safe.

[mb018538]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Well if you were purely going off the GFS/GEFS 6z you would be inclined to think there is a quite decent cold spell from the 27th . Looks good on the graph , plenty of snow chances

6z gfs is indeed a great run, but only because the energy to the NW is held at bay and we get a proper build of heights. If it flattens out around day 7/8 (850 spikes on graph) then it’s door closed for a while and wait I’m afraid. Next few days crucial yet again.

[pureasthedriven]

39 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Pressure a lot higher North and East in Feb 1986 so quite a bit different 

Plus an almost perfect positioning, strength and alignment of that Southern Europe LP. 

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

I get you, wow its exciting. I headed over for a sneek at the previously riotous, but now 'ever so serious' thread just now where there was in-depth analysis of clusters, hypotheses and all manner of three latter acroynoms (TLAs) flying at maybe one per hour. Some of those posters are hell bent on getting it right, and all credit to them, but just now and again one pipes up with the lesson to end them all: The weather will do what it wants. Amazeballs. Stay here, its benign but its safe.

I haven't even checked the serious thread in about 2 days if I'm honest. Seems if you say one thing out of place then you get your message hidden! Which is actually fair enough, I like the "2 forum" idea, it lets us more relaxed folk view the models with anticipation and a bit of humour every now and then, and the very serious people can just try and outsmart each other to their hearts content.

[Met4Cast]

GFS looks very much on it's own regarding Saturdays potential snowfall, no other model is really interested. Given the GFS took up until 12 hours before realising there would be little back edge snow on Monday nights front, I think we may as well just bin the PPN charts from that model 

[Trom]

14 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

When the plot flatlines at the top, is that an indication that we have won a northerly / Easterly?

I wondered what the 'Y' axis was measuring, perhaps you can explain?  Potential?

I think it must be ensemble members from the GEFS

[IPredictASnowStorm]

Looking at the GFS this morning plenty of chances Next week for some snow staying mostly cold through the whole run that is a good sign !

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

I'm not sure which thread would be suitable for this query.....Can someone help me please? 

That wedge of milder air moving across us on Fri/Sat, where exactly is the air coming from?  because it's going to bring us an overnight low of 11C in South Wales, that's about 3-4C above the daytime average so very impressive for a January night. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

[bluearmy]

honing in on a big neg AO return for the end of the month/beg feb 

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Can someone help me please? 

That wedge of milder air moving across us on Fri/Sat, where exactly is the air coming from?  because it's going to bring us an overnight low of 11C in South Wales, that's about 3-4C above the daytime average so very impressive for a January night. 

Westerly winds from the Atlantic 

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

honing in on a big neg AO return for the end of the month/beg feb 

... Is that good?

[Frosty.]

The longer term signal for February sounds increasingly mouth-watering with similarities to what happened in late feb / early march last year!!

In the meantime, the models indicate plenty of cold zonal and also some arctic shots..a far cry from the mostly benign nothingness we had in dec / first part of jan!..exciting times for sure!

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The longer term signal for February sounds increasingly mouth-watering with similarities to what happened in late feb / early march last year!!

In the meantime, the models indicate plenty of cold zonal and also some arctic shots..a far cry from the mostly benign nothingness we had in dec / first part of jan!..exciting times for sure!

Pretty much like what it was, for January, then?

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

2 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Westerly winds from the Atlantic 

Thanks I noticed the westerly winds showing at low levels but didn't realise they'd bring such mild weather at this time of year as the Atlantic is getting towards its coldest, usually that's SW or S winds 

[MP-R]

8 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

I'm not sure which thread would be suitable for this query.....Can someone help me please? 

That wedge of milder air moving across us on Fri/Sat, where exactly is the air coming from?  because it's going to bring us an overnight low of 11C in South Wales, that's about 3-4C above the daytime average so very impressive for a January night. 

There's quite a notable warm sector passing over the country at that stage with 0-5C 850hPa air, translating to higher than normal temperatures for a short blip. Cold air off the Atlantic of course wouldn't bring such balmy temperatures. 11C minimum might be being a bit over zealous though...

I'm sure it'll be long forgotten by Saturday afternoon when we see a sharp return to a northerly component.

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Thanks I noticed the westerly winds showing at low levels but didn't realise they'd bring such mild weather at this time of year as the Atlantic is getting towards its coldest, usually that's SW or S winds 

No worries. I'm not sure why it's so mild in the Atlantic, my knowledge isn't as high as most here. I'm just here for the ride of cold weather! blame theresa may if all else fails!

[fluid dynamic]

11 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

No worries. I'm not sure why it's so mild in the Atlantic, my knowledge isn't as high as most here. I'm just here for the ride of cold weather! blame theresa may if all else fails!

Just wondering what the Atlantic temperature is now, but I'm fairly sure from my diving days it was coldest in March. And imagine Teresa on here, gawd she'd be rushing around ignoring all the experts, then she'd be coming up with some wild proposal and stick to it.

Edited January 23, 2019 by fluid dynamic