Cold hunt - models and chat

[Purga]

06z Para is very nice!

[blizzard81]

I think most on here are waiting for that grand set of 12z runs that always seem to cement a potent cold spell. Will it be today? 

[Tim Bland]

Snow depths from last 2 GFSp runs for the end of next week. I’m sure we would all be happy with that! 

[Jackski4]

Lots of agreement between the GFS 6Z and the GFSPARA. If the 12z agrees later, surely things can't go wrong??

Edited January 23, 2019 by Jackski4

[Tim Bland]

2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I think most on here are waiting for that grand set of 12z runs that always seem to cement a potent cold spell. Will it be today? 

You must have missed it...it was last Friday

[Rocheydub]

Indeed, 8 days away 

 

What could possibly go wrong? 

[DIS1970]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Lots of agreement between the GFS 6Z and for GFSPARA. If the 12z agrees later, surely things can't go wrong??

Shhhhh!

[kold weather]

Just looking through the 00z ECM ensemble individual runs and they are...ok...most do still have a decent cold shot but most also force the flow back to a more westerly direction by 2-4th Feb. A fair amount do at least attempt a second ridge up which probably would re-introduce colder air later, but if ECM enesembles yesterday were a 9/10, these are probably a 7/10. Good enough and possibly still quite snowy, but not as sustained. Less variety of solutions as well than the GFS ensembles I note.

PS, the control run 06z GFS looks quite close to what many of those ECM ensembles do by the way!

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[lassie23]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

Lots of agreement between the GFS 6Z and for GFSPARA. If the 12z agrees later, surely things can't go wrong??

lol 8 hours away and i would still not be convinced

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, terrier said:

But haven’t you said the gfs is cannon fodder?? So what makes it correct this time if it’s classed as a cannon fodder??

Because its alligned to the UKModel + EPS mean- so the 3 together is a fair fit. 

If the GFS was the only model showing cold then I wouldnt be adding much weight to a comment- 

I only take note of GFS when the 3 are in sync -

What the GFS does is allow us to put a little more detail on the picture with the high res charts at 96 ( as long as they are very close to the UKMO chart )

& the Operational & mean are showing another rain to snow event for the UK sat eve - 

Then post this the 'opportunity' of more substantial cold again backed up by the EPS members -

thanks

[Nimbusman]

Certainly looks like the brisk northerly is on for Sunday according to the GFS 6z ensembles (para agrees.. and some!) and the trough sinking south in the following few days. How far south and east it goes varies and if we get the ridge behind to link to the Siberian high but definitely some more genuine interest now again after the easterly failure last week. 

[Jackski4]

3 minutes ago, DIS1970 said:

Shhhhh!

 

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol 8 hours away and i would still not be convinced

I'm gonna say it... p..otential

[The Northern Ramper]

It’s interesting that the banter thread has 10 times as many pages as the focus model thread.

 

[K9]

Half decent set of charts popping up today...but beyond the reliable for me...i think for everyone's sanity we shouldn't post past T96 - 120! .... the rollercoaster continues to roll but without delivering the goods.... but hats off to all those that try and predict the future that mother nature has for us...makes for excellent reading peeps!!...anyway onto the 12Z??...i'll just keep enjoying the first decent frost of the season that arrived last night...still below freezing here in the shade !

[O'Maille80]

All these sarcastic/negative 'what could go wrong posts?' are boring at his stage. Add nothing to the thread.

[DIS1970]

Anything beyond 3 days is just not worth putting any bets on, the 12z charts could well show a different outlook again, that's why i tend to watch and/or browse the forum rather than post, as it may tempt fate, daft i know but you know.

[Rocheydub]

Just now, O'Maille80 said:

All these sarcastic/negative 'what could go wrong posts?' are boring at his stage. Add nothing to the thread.

The delicious irony of this post!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean / postage stamps indicate some very cold / snowy P..P..P..Potential during the weeks ahead!

[Derecho]

06z swignometers

Potential cold spell from the arctic waiting in the wings, potentially for the end of January. Many of the runs show potential snow showers under a cold northerly wind with potential gales. There are some potential stonkers in there, most notably the parallel which has a potentially very cold flow from the NE. We could conclude from the swingometers that a potential northerly is likely but at the moment it is just potential.

 

As we get a little further into February, things may potentially be getting milder as there aren't as many runs with good potential for northern blocking. There are plenty of runs which show cold potential however. I like P4 with its potential easterly further down the line.

 

Looking at the global temperature anomalies for T168 things are potentially turning very amplified across the USA. Some potentially very mild air making its way to NE Canada where we would like to see it. This would leave use with a good deal of potential for a block over Greenland further down the line. With that the potential for a prolonged cold spell increases.

[Penicuikblizzard]

57 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

A good/very good end to the run: 

 

Early February 1986, for comparison: 

Pressure a lot higher North and East in Feb 1986 so quite a bit different 

[kold weather]

Still plenty of options from the GFS 06z ensembles, even as soon as 120hrs the shape and ridging of the Azores high is noticeably different from run to run and that obviously has a big impact down the line.

I'd say there is probably a slighter tighter grouping than previous runs (in that we are losing the very mild solutions of recent suites) and there are only a few runs that look bleak. There are conversely a few that go ballistic and create a very sustained cold and snowy spell. Also worth noting very few completely blow away the set-up and quite a few could very easily fall into the sustained cold pattern with a slightly weaker PV lobe.

Good set of ensembles overall.

Now just get that stupid ECM onside on the 12z please and for once can we have some stronger consistency from the models just to give the nerves a rest!

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Still plenty of options from the GFS 06z ensembles, even as soon as 120hrs the shape and ridging of the Azores high is noticeably different from run to run and that obviously has a big impact down the line.

I'd say there is probably a slighter tighter grouping than previous runs (in that we are losing the very mild solutions of recent suites) and there are only a few runs that look bleak. There are conversely a few that go ballistic and create a very sustained cold and snowy spell. Also worth noting very few completely blow away the set-up and quite a few could very easily fall into the sustained cold pattern with a slightly weaker PV lobe.

Good set of ensembles overall.

Now just get that stupid ECM onside on the 12z please and for once can we have some stronger consistency from the models just to give the nerves a rest!

Chance the downwelling may make the models a LOT more reliable from here on out?

[bluearmy]

As time ticks by, seems likely that the scandi ridge gains more and more opportunity to establish with the predicted tpv location - later week 2 favoured but that could accelerate 

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Pressure a lot higher North and East in Feb 1986 so quite a bit different 

Indeed, PB...never put too much faith in analogues/superficially matched patterns...?

Edited January 23, 2019 by Ed Stone

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Chance the downwelling may make the models a LOT more reliable from here on out?

The models seem to be really struggling between 120-144hrs at the moment, after that the general trend actually develops better agreement again with regards to the broad pattern, but what happens between 120-144hrs does have a huge impact on our actual surface weather between 168-240hrs.

Afterwards increasing signs of pressure from the PV over NE Canada, but this need not be the death knell as the 06z GFS shows and may just be am opportunity as BA said to establish more of a Scandi high feature.