Cold hunt - models and chat

[gpspete]

4 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

That’s the 00z going by the 6z running out now you can shift that lot about 200 miles south

Just checked the 6z run still looks interesting 

[kold weather]

3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Russian high not doing us much favours tbh, just stops the reinforcement of cold and progression of the trough eastwards over europe.

Conversely it also helps to stop the PV forcing the whole lot SE and toppling the Azores high into Europe, so I think whilst I understand what your saying, its a net positive feature on this run as the cold is already in place.

[Methuselah]

Preparations for another scintillating Day 10 are well underway: 

Meet Sidney the Eagle:

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, andymusic said:

next hour

Cool, cheers.

[Altostratus]

An improved 06z but still not liking that quasi stationary PV chunk sat over NE Canada. Even if we get the ridge up into GL there is potential it could be flattened quite quickly resulting in a transitory spell of colder air. If that chunk doesn't migrate south or west we could really do with some blocking assistance from the NE.  

[IDO]

Two runs from GFS op in la la land moving the PV from Asia-US to Pacific-Atlantic:

With highs cutting from west to east upstream, potential for that trough to edge towards the UK with the associated upper cold trough

[Chris101]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Conversely it also helps to stop the PV forcing the whole lot SE and toppling the Azores high into Europe, so I think whilst I understand what your saying, its a net positive feature on this run as the cold is already in place.

Our ridge just not good enough to hold that lobe back, lets see if 2 ridges can work on keeping it back.

[kold weather]

Well that is a certain bank from the GFS 06z!

PV huffs and puffs on this run but doesn't get very far until right towards the end of the run due to a good formation of upper high this run.

PS, IDO the Arctic set-up is still a nice and total mess I see in forecasting terms!

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[Froze were the Days]

Differences at around 140 between the 0z and 6z with increased WAA up the west coast of Greenland which doesn't occur on the 0z which is more progressive, in turn the 6z presents greater heights round the Greenland area which in turn with heights near Scandi presents us with greater chances of a cold North easterly thereafter, 6z & 18z runs seem to be bringing out what we want to see but are they credible?. The ecm det keep on churning out rather underwhelming runs (though okay for Scotland on the latest 0z).

Edited January 23, 2019 by Froze were the Days

[Snowman.]

11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Conversely it also helps to stop the PV forcing the whole lot SE and toppling the Azores high into Europe, so I think whilst I understand what your saying, its a net positive feature on this run as the cold is already in place.

It does orientate itself better at the end of the run I'll give it that. Looks to lining up a real beast, would have loved to see it continue.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Snowman.

[bluearmy]

13 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Russian high not doing us much favours tbh, just stops the reinforcement of cold and progression of the trough eastwards over europe.

Dont wish it away ..... this is a great run with it in situ ....... if it goes then the trough may go too far to out east under pressure of the still strong  jet .....and it might be handy for it to be nearby for when the reversal of flow comes - if these manifest in bursts rather than spells then the blocks need to be close enough or the deep cold won’t get to the end of the line before the flow comes back in .....

[Snowman.]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Dont wish it away ..... this is a great run with it in situ ....... if it goes then the trough may go too far to out east under pressure of the still strong  jet .....and it might be handy for it to be nearby for when the reversal of flow comes - if these manifest in bursts rather than spells then the blocks need to be close enough or the deep cold won’t get to the end of the line before the flow comes back in .....

Thanks for the clarification

[Methuselah]

A good/very good end to the run: 

 

Early February 1986, for comparison: 

[Yarmy]

The Control run has the same embedded low as the Op for Saturday Night/Sunday Morning that delivers a rain to snow event for much of England:

 

[edo]

1 hour ago, syed2878 said:

 I meant to say Scotland always get wintry weather in any winter anyway last night the models were looking good this morning they are not too bad but we always chasing day 10 chance of it being the story of winter 20 1819 

this is a myth mate when Scotland is referred to as a whole...i posted about this a few pages back.... i have had lying snow once in 3 years and only seen 2 snow showers this winter neither of which lied.... or to put it another way those NW winds produced more snow for people in north west London than here 

Dont get me wrong some of the charts will deliver for here if can get the correct tilt but don't assume its common for us all up here to see snow every winter. 

 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

What a chart for 3-4 days time! Has a 30th January 2003 look to it with a quasi stationary front hanging over the E of England with a northerly gale. Something to keep a close eye on. 

[Chris101]

To be fair does anyone think that the slow pace at which (fingers crossed) we are building our cold more and more, is pretty much in tandem with the slow downwelling.

[kold weather]

Control run shows us why the Russian high was such a big aid on the op run. Still a fine run in its own right but Azores high topples very quickly in front of another attack from a cutoff low coming form the PV over Canada.

[bluearmy]

Para decent again ..... was there much chat about the 00z run ....looked pretty good to me 

[terrier]

43 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A great wintry 06z run with copious opportunities of snow-

& crucially again the first bout of cold arrives in 3-4 days...

Whats crititcal here for those marginal situations is

- The initial flow of cold is this time more 'Northerly' as opposed to the current North Westerly - This brings 2 important components- lower dewpoints & 850s circa -8c which are both superior to the current modified NW airmass-

- We also see the main trough drop further to the East than the last cold spell, this will tend to enhance shower potential from the NE-

- Finally the 'wedge' of high pressure alligned to the NW around 180 'could' be sufficient enough to steer the canadian vortex south into the atlantic....

Very good signs today!

But haven’t you said the gfs is cannon fodder?? So what makes it correct this time if it’s classed as a cannon fodder??

[MattStoke]

Nice GFSP at day 8.

Edited January 23, 2019 by MattStoke

[Mr Frost]

23 minutes ago, edo said:

this is a myth mate when Scotland is referred to as a whole...i posted about this a few pages back.... i have had lying snow once in 3 years and only seen 2 snow showers this winter neither of which lied.... or to put it another way those NW winds produced more snow for people in north west London than here 

Dont get me wrong some of the charts will deliver for here if can get the correct tilt but don't assume its common for us all up here to see snow every winter. 

 

Jesus mate I did not realise it was that bad! Snow on the ground once in three years!? You must live in the least snowiest place in Scotland! 

Totally agree though - if you want guaranteed Winter weather head up Ben Nevis or the Cairngorms 90% of the time. 

Highlands is obviously a sweet spot but varies widely in distribution of snow with regards to region. 

Very wintry in many parts of Scotland currently (including here) - but again regional differences.

Personally for me it has been a very snowy few years with regards to days with snow falling and laying on ground longer term. 

Hopefully the previous posts and this will now put all this to bed and we can move on with regards to a hunt for more UK and Ireland cold! 

Something like this from the GFS would be nice! 

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Tim Bland]

Lots be positive about from both GFS runs this morning 

[kold weather]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Para decent again ..... was there much chat about the 00z run ....looked pretty good to me 

Not really, but the 00z GFS para was decent as you say, maybe not quite as impressive as the 06z GFS in terms of pattern but on the right line.

06z control run is cold but the whole thing topples down pretty quickly under pressure from the PV lobe and so the Azores high eventually comes back in again. Another possibility if that PV lobe does exert too much pressure on the whole thing, though not without further potential further down the line in the form of repeat NW/N efforts.

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[blizzard81]

Para - short for paradise