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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
30 minutes ago, Paul said:

At closer range, some are going to wake to a wintry scene tomorrow morning, with snow on the ground. 

snowdepth.png

How, is the white bits snow then!!!!!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Reading this thread is bizarre......obviously people are expecting a flip to -700c Easterlies from Alaska......wake up. The charts ARE NOT poor.....

 

BFTP

I'd say the 12z ECM is poor for a lot of the country later on and compared to what could happen, that 12z ECM is nearly as bad as it gets from the position qwe find ourselves in at 144hrs. I think that's the problem, combined with the fact that we seem like we are trending back away from where we need to be synoptically again, especially on the best model of them all, the ECM...and the ensembles are a total dogs dinner in terms of agreement, which gives me concern as well.

Still plenty to play for though and could just be a couple of bad runs from the ECM. GEM and GFS are still good, the GFS para is good but slightly strange in its evolution. Even the 12z ECM which is poor later does have a few things worth watching earlier on.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy winter, warm/hot summer with the odd storm thrown in
  • Location: Barton on Sea, Hampshire
3 minutes ago, Don said:

All in all, not good.......

Good thing there's plenty of encouragement elsewhere then. 

Edited by matt111
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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Fantastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean at day 10..for all!!..plenty of cold before then too.❄️:cold:

EDM0-240.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
1 minute ago, kold weather said:

I'd say the 12z ECM is poor for a lot of the country later on and compared to what could happen, that 12z ECM is nearly as bad as it gets from the position qwe find ourselves in at 144hrs. I think that's the problem, combined with the fact that we seem like we are trending back away from where we need to be synoptically again, especially on the best model of them all, the ECM...and the ensembles are a total dogs dinner in terms of agreement, which gives me concern as well.

Still plenty to play for though and could just be a couple of bad runs from the ECM. GEM and GFS are still good, the GFS para is good but slightly strange in its evolution. Even the 12z ECM which is poor later does have a few things worth watching earlier on.

Couple? 00z was good, this one could be better...

BFTP

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Posted
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
  • Location: Ynysybwl 200msl
40 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

.• cold rain

• No snow 

• No ice days 

• No cold spell near 

= that’s why it’s horrible . 

I'm glad this month ( january) is almost over because its been probably the biggest hype month we've ever had inhere ( been around10 years) and we have never once come close to a cold spell. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Frosty. said:

Fantastic Ecm 12z ensemble mean at day 10..for all!!..plenty of cold before then too.

Ig the ECM ensembles are anything like the GFS ensembles, that mean means very very little indeed, just too many conflicting ideas.

I'll have to wait to see what the individual members show, with the caveat that the OP very often does lead the way, especially given its now had this set-up broadly for the last 3 runs.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Just now, northwestsnow said:

EC day 10 mean is awesome tonight!!

Still at day 10 though as its been since end of November

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Couple? 00z was good, this one could be better...

BFTP

Such a slow evolution to cold on that 00z ECM though and I think the whole thing is going to be put under a lot of pressure by the NE Canada lobe. Thr 12z is even more progressive on that front and WILL end with a toppler situation shortly after the cold air has dug in, probably at 288hrs. The 500mb thickness charts show very nicely this if you run 6hr increments between 216-240hrs.

PS, great mean as others have said though!

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Reading this thread is bizarre......obviously people are expecting a flip to -700c Easterlies from Alaska......wake up. The charts ARE NOT poor.....

 

BFTP

Couldn't agree more BFTP some rather misguided analysis.

For a start we have GFS and ECM very similar at 240. Both have what amounts to a cross polar flow cutting in behind the low with minus ten 850's coming south. The GFS goes on to show what happens as the downwelling from the SSW really digs into the trop. Very much in line with Meto extended going for very cold and snow risks in February. Alot of us had to wait until the very end of Feb for any worthwhile snow last winter so I for one am very happy with tonights output.

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3 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I'm glad this month ( january) is almost over because its been probably the biggest hype month we've ever had inhere ( been around10 years) and we have never once come close to a cold spell. 

and having hype(perfectly justified based on the models and info available to us) over a potential cold spell is bad because?

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Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

i only can say that the charts from 170 hr  nothing short of a winter wonder  land  if the gfs is  right!!

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

Edited by tinybill
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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The crappy DET runs are getting right on my goat tho..

Yep...what worries me a little and itd nagging me is that the ECM op was one the first to spot the move away from the cold easterly. The ensembles were still on board but more and more jumped off ship. The GFS has been like that, with near total agreement a few days ago, we are now in a situation where only about 50-60% dive the LP far enough SE to relaly get the most out of the cold air.

I think a cold shot is just about certain, but I think about waiting this long...I want...more...

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

The crappy DET runs are getting right on my goat tho..

Not worried while they are outliers

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

The change will happen way before 240!! Stop looking so far out... since when has a cold pattern ever set up at day 10 then magically moved through the dates to land majestically at T0......well never!!!  

We nearly always get a slow evolution from around days 5-6. Obviously it helps if the background signals are favourable (which they are at present).

So eyes peeled for 120-168.....

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, cobbett said:

graphe_ens322.php.png

THAT however does ease some fears for sure.

Heck of a mild outlier suggests the 'cleve' pattern isn't at all supported by the ensembles, thank goodness! Indeed the eCM is just about the warmest run throughout the entire thing.

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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The JMA will be a stonker later when the rest of the run comes out.

My numerous daily browses on this forum would not be complete without you saying those magical words “stonker” and “stonking” 

Please never change - makes me laugh everytime.

You are a proper legend! 

 

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
6 minutes ago, cobbett said:

graphe_ens322.php.png

Phew!! Need to see a better Det in the morning, after the winter we have had the last thing we need is wild mild left trouser leg fillers!

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Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
12 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I'm glad this month ( january) is almost over because its been probably the biggest hype month we've ever had inhere ( been around10 years) and we have never once come close to a cold spell. 

I must be living on a different planet, we have had numerous hard frosts, ice, fog, freezing fog and a sprinkling of snow. So whilst it might be applicable where you are, it is not the case across the board.

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