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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

Friday has been trumpeted as a milder blip..the Gfs 6z operational doesn't agree with that..for the majority!and

Looking at the bigger picture, the 6z and other output is painting an increasingly wintry picture which I'm very happy about!:cold:

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Had Worse Maestro

Had Worse

Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
Posted
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

graphe3_1000_244_26___.gif

Back to the Future part two, before the easterly failure the Ensembles looked like this

I had to look that grid reference up and its for Todmorden.  Good enough for me. That's a long line of snow symbols lol.

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
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Posted

The euro4 was spot on for my area. Most other models and forecasts were going for rain or sleet but I woke up to this...

B4345AD7-5561-41C9-88A0-B77E0326A363.thumb.jpeg.9c63e89cd8aad2006bd7fe4744820a64.jpeg

Plenty to look forward to as we head into next week with snow chances increasing for many areas

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Stormeh said:

The euro4 was spot on for my area. Most other models and forecasts were going for rain or sleet but I woke up to this...

B4345AD7-5561-41C9-88A0-B77E0326A363.thumb.jpeg.9c63e89cd8aad2006bd7fe4744820a64.jpeg

Plenty to look forward to as we head into next week with snow chances increasing for many areas

The cat looks about as happy as Sidney would be ? 

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

I think the thought on many people's minds in the extended range is whether the met office suggestion of very cold and increased snow risks away from. The usual suspects is due to their models showing northern blocking or just a more intense version of what we already have.

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted
12 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

graphe3_1000_244_26___.gif

Back to the Future part two, before the easterly failure the Ensembles looked like this

Another thing to note frosty is looks how many more prolong the cold this week even if its just by a day or 2!!the cold is being stubborn and harder to shift!!if that build on the 12z theres gona be mass excitement lol!!

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Stormeh Accomplished

Stormeh

Posted
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
  • Weather Preferences: Severe gales, thunderstorms, snow
  • Location: Barrhead, East Renfrewshire
Posted
13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The cat looks about as happy as Sidney would be ? 

Yes he is not keen on the snow...

AE02D423-044E-4D6B-B5CC-AA56BBCF0CA1.thumb.jpeg.556ca6ea3f785ab648b2142d484d73c0.jpeg

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Jonathan Rhodri Roberts Enthusiast

Jonathan Rhodri Roberts

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Friday has been trumpeted as a milder blip..the Gfs 6z operational doesn't agree with that..for the majority!and

Looking at the bigger picture, the 6z and other output is painting an increasingly wintry picture which I'm very happy about!:cold:

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

11C in Swansea! might have to ditch my fleece again  

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
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Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

The euro4 was spot on for my area. Most other models and forecasts were going for rain or sleet but I woke up to this...

B4345AD7-5561-41C9-88A0-B77E0326A363.thumb.jpeg.9c63e89cd8aad2006bd7fe4744820a64.jpeg

Plenty to look forward to as we head into next week with snow chances increasing for many areas

Spot on for here also! North Westerly always delivers for us! ☃️

I got a dusting here at sea level but the surrounding hills/mountains are looking fantastic - low cloud is hiding a few peaks! 

Hopefully the charts showing for the medium/longer term are on the ball today - would be great if everyone could join in the fun! ❄️

 

DC0E7FE9-963A-4776-8969-93B37BE62D40.jpeg

7E2D0664-1E2C-403F-A754-2AB0915EF163.jpeg

1F54BBAD-41C0-4DAE-A254-C8534B837FBB.png

78CED5B1-387A-46D3-9EFF-39EFC14619E0.jpeg

Edited by Mr Frost
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
32 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Yes he is not keen on the snow...

AE02D423-044E-4D6B-B5CC-AA56BBCF0CA1.thumb.jpeg.556ca6ea3f785ab648b2142d484d73c0.jpeg

Meanwhile on the Costa Del South Coast 

C5C6761C-3C21-4BFC-870B-BA906A3AF2DF.thumb.jpeg.f3e8043eb812005add1e11e20ac874f3.jpeg

RRUUUBISHH!!

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
48 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

The cat looks about as happy as Sidney would be ? 

You were saying? Sidney's always ready for Day 10!

image.png.4d170eb797fa1e7d1fd4a5010accaa44.png

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Hopefully folk will be a bit more cautious this time and wait until the beast from the east style charts many crave get below t96 as was proved last week when mass disappointment erupted when it all downgraded.

To be fair to some there was some what of agreement between the models then it all went downhill to make long story short 

Of course they could appear again soon but who knows 

I would never get hype unless they was cross model agreement

Lets see the next few models to see if the GFS is on to something 

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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted (edited)

Correspondent on the BBC from Brussels, snowing heavily there. That's from the front that swept through the UK last night, rain mostly here, as soon as it hits the contintent it turns to snow. If only we had a more continental climate! 

Edited by danm
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minus86BriJ Explorer

minus86BriJ

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
Posted
12 minutes ago, danm said:

Correspondent on the BBC from Brussels, snowing heavily there. That's from the front that swept through the UK last night, rain mostly here, as soon as it hits the contintent it turns to snow. If only we had a more continental climate! 

Yeh snowing away nicely in Amsterdam as well.

https://balticlivecam.com/cameras/netherlands/amsterdam/dam-square/

I lived there for 2 years recently without a flake of snow.. send me to Russia in a box and you'll all be guaranteed 2 foot plus ?️

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted

Good morning, an update from the 06z swingometers

Overall a bit better in the mid time range, the swingometers for January 31st have trended a bit colder. A few nice runs in there, the OP looks rather blocked with some snow potentially for southern England. 

image.thumb.png.029e3a7dd1ac95d872f33866ebad0f40.pngimage.thumb.png.5e0f5ff47f208e5002d2f09d81d226f0.png 

The start of February still looks very uncertain as we would expect. Temperatures for most ensemble members are a bit on the cold side / average. Nothing too exciting yet.... the control run has a sharp northerly.

image.thumb.png.0cc496e083226ab04ac7c9298b73fb1c.pngimage.thumb.png.154b46923061f1e84c8c3cdc457e3e53.png 

Globally the temperature pattern anomaly is interesting, we are lucky enough to catch that very cold air over Greenland. We don't have much in the way of northern blocking but any NW winds will have an extra cold sting to them. So whilst that cold blob in the Atlantic generally coincides with more westerlies, it's not always bad. Hopefully we can develop a cold surface block from the cold and tap in some more frigid air from the east.

image.thumb.png.37c37864c7edbf09d969d62f9c891fa1.png

Good to see the arctic temperatures below average, a stark contrast to recent years. 

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted

@Quicksilver1989 that is interesting, I read a tweet the other day that arctic is now dipped below average....first time in donkeys.  Interesting indeed. 

Again glad you kept it going, interesting indeed

 

BFTP 

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TEITS Maestro

TEITS

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
Posted

Compare the difference between todays 06Z and yesterdays with regards to how much further W the High pressure is!

gfs-0-120.png?6gfs-0-144.png?6

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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
Posted

It most definitely has shifted west...here’s hoping the trend keeps this shift plus north on the later runs

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted
10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

@Quicksilver1989 that is interesting, I read a tweet the other day that arctic is now dipped below average....first time in donkeys.  Interesting indeed. 

Again glad you kept it going, interesting indeed

 

BFTP 

We have to go back to February 2013 for the last time arctic temperatures were well below average. Makes a change from the crazy mild weather there 2 years ago.

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

The 6z is showing a powerful low blowing up and moving into Eastern Greenland at around t196. Only need one of these systems to accomplish that and it’ll hold up the Atlantic long enough for a pattern change. 

 

A6599F9B-2BE2-483C-BE60-D39178146479.jpeg

Edited by DCee
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Timmytour Accomplished

Timmytour

Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
Posted
20 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Compare the difference between todays 06Z and yesterdays with regards to how much further W the High pressure is!

gfs-0-120.png?6gfs-0-144.png?6

The push of the Russian high westwards seems quite dramatic also

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