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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

Unfortunately whilst that sector south of Greenland keeps popping up with little lows and short waves there will be no sustainable blocking, go through this run you’ll lose count of the amount of times the ridge looks like it wants to try and go north and a little spoiler runs over the top of it. Frustrating!

I know what you are saying but that low is a potential snow machine if it dives down towards the UK. I do feel that winter proper is about to start very soon. 

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snowflakey Contributor

snowflakey

Posted
  • Location: iow england
  • Location: iow england
Posted
22 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Yes Shaky,

Comparing 6z to yesterday. A huge shift west of the high.

gfs-0-114.thumb.png.91ca2c9c71eac2b10574eef5352b0b6f.pnggfs-0-138.thumb.png.29f4e86607f97161d2ff90a2d2ec6015.png

To me that's looks like a very cold HP building over Scandy, if I'm reading this wright then that's 528 blue shading and a 1030mb HP. 

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Jason74 Enthusiast

Jason74

Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
Posted
13 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Come back Steve!! Please!! The models look good again!! It's real this time we promise!

Hmmmm...or are we being lead down the garden path. Again. 

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
22 minutes ago, stewfox said:

I can't believe/ fathom how quite the model thread has become. Its like the party has just stopped. We have 'snow potential' and its still January. Ok no beast from the east but even so...

I think everyone got burnt by the models one too many times and so have taken up different hobbies like knitting and watching cats playing the piano on youtube

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
23 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its crazy!!even the cold spell this week its more of a struggle to clear compared to yesterdays runs!!could it actually stay cold across england without actually getting mild before the next push of colder uppers come south!!interesting 12zs coming up!!

Certainly less mild Shaky, with pM air very quickly back in the mix.  00z were imo a good step forward, 06z inches colder again....I like that rather than wild swings to nirvana.  

Folks don’t get hung up on v early large influence from NE....

 

BFTP

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Party time in the cold mod thread again?

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V for Very Cold Aficionado

V for Very Cold

Posted
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Elstow, Bedford
Posted

"I'm sure I'll take you with pleasure!" the Queen said. "Two easterlys a week, and snow every other day."
Alice couldn't help laughing, as she said, "I don't want you to hire me – and I don't care for snow."
"It's very deep snow," said the Queen.
"Well, I don't want any to-day, at any rate."
"You couldn't have it if you did want it," the Queen said. "The rule is, snow to-morrow and snow yesterday – but never snow to-day."
"It must come sometimes to 'snow to-day'," Alice objected.
"No, it can't," said the Queen. "It's snow every other day: to-day isn't any other day, you know."
"I don't understand you," said Alice. "It's dreadfully confusing!"

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think everyone got burnt by the models one too many times and so have taken up different hobbies like knitting and watching cats playing the piano on youtube

And dancing on ice ha ha ha  

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BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-0-228.png?6

Not quite day 10
Also notice the colder air over Scandi
gfs-1-228.png?6

And the widespread area across the arctic from Greenland to Lapland of serious deep cold.  No trough bulge over Svalbard region as per 00z

 

BFTP

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Certainly less mild Shaky, with pM air very quickly back in the mix.  00z were imo a good step forward, 06z inches colder again....I like that rather than wild swings to nirvana.  

Folks don’t get hung up on v early large influence from NE...

BFTP

 

Agreed, I think as you've said before the diving troughs are still the main feature, though that is increasingly being aided by a mid Atlantic ridge helping to keep the cold air coming down rather then getting cutoff. any ridging though will probably end up being forced SE and I wouldn't be shocked if we need one more bite of the cherry before we get that proper northern blocking. But its getting there steadily.

Down the line, need to watch what the arctic does, I'm still going for a 5-10th Feb date for some decent northern blocking to emerge...I'm praying I'm right!

Edited by kold weather
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Weathizard Accomplished

Weathizard

Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
Posted
5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I know what you are saying but that low is a potential snow machine if it dives down towards the UK. I do feel that winter proper is about to start very soon. 

It is for some, but without any wedge or block to the north there’s not much chance of any of those lows diving southwards enough to deliver or pull in a sustainable flow.

The problem seems to be at the moment, we only seem to get these proper blocking charts when the models reduce in resolution so they don’t pick up these spoilers that almost always pop up when you get towards high res, I really hope the SSW downwelling can help us as I don’t want to make myself unpopular but I really just can’t see how we escape this pattern at the moment into anything sustainable.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It is for some, but without any wedge or block to the north there’s not much chance of any of those lows diving southwards enough to deliver or pull in a sustainable flow.

The problem seems to be at the moment, we only seem to get these proper blocking charts when the models reduce in resolution so they don’t pick up these spoilers that almost always pop up when you get towards high res, I really hope the SSW downwelling can help us as I don’t want to make myself unpopular but I really just can’t see how we escape this pattern at the moment into anything sustainable.

And yet the Lows are diving south East and keep doings so in a repeating pattern

Edited by frosty ground
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted
Just now, Weathizard said:

It is for some, but without any wedge or block to the north there’s not much chance of any of those lows diving southwards enough to deliver or pull in a sustainable flow.

The problem seems to be at the moment, we only seem to get these proper blocking charts when the models reduce in resolution so they don’t pick up these spoilers that almost always pop up when you get towards high res, I really hope the SSW downwelling can help us as I don’t want to make myself unpopular but I really just can’t see how we escape this pattern at the moment into anything sustainable.

Hard to disagree with anything you said there to be honest. We have been burnt so many times this season and for that matter many previous winters too. I still think we will be rewarded very soon though. 

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No Balls Like Snow Balls Experienced

No Balls Like Snow Balls

Posted
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Haddenham (Bucks). Work Heathrow Airport
Posted

Boom! shake-shake-shake the room
Tic-tic-tic-tic Boom!

Only 10 days to go. What could possibly go wrong. 

 

gfsnh-0-240.png

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Well another run and another utterly different Arctic profile past 216hrs, that's probably about as far as we can go with even a slight amount of confidence. 06z GFS version of the Arctic is to ramp up the PV again over Greenland...GFS looks like its going back to a phase MJO look.

Total contrast to the 00z which blew up strong upper highs over Greenland...so yeah, confidence very very low!

Edited by kold weather
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stratty Aficionado

stratty

Posted
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Exciting weather!
  • Location: Mid Welsh/English Border
Posted

It's snow joke! Or is it our snow angel?

image.png.8d7cc729ebc3c8f2aaf54a191ddd798d.png

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