Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Much but that was not a hard task  

Going the right way then

[nick sussex]

Unusually the ECM and GFS are on the same page at day ten .

High pressure developing to the nw and still the Euro troughing .  The UKMO to be honest looks all at sea earlier , it’s removed much influence of the Russian high and can’t seem to make its mind up on that front . Last night it was most bullish on that front  day 5 and 6.

Before we get to day ten still several more chances for snow as pulses of shortwave energy head se . 

In terms of the day 9 and 10 , this is the more complicated bit because we need the energy going se but don’t want that hangback of low heights shown in the ECM, and we don’t want the low parked near or to the south of the UK.

The low needs to develop more se towards northern Italy because this will mean you cut off any less cold uppers moving nw into central eastern Europe.

Anyway that’s a long way off. Overall the trends are good this morning for coldies .

Edited January 22, 2019 by nick sussex

[snowblizzard]

Lack of input from GP lately is rather worrying!

Edited January 22, 2019 by snowblizzard

[Duane S.]

16 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Ignore me was looking at completely wrong charts not even from ECM - Its early 

Ha ha, don't do that, I thought I'd been looking at the wrong run and had to go back and check!

ECM is actually very good indeed. Full of the dreaded pot****al word.

Bottom line though, better to have it than not, we will never get a decent cold spell without it. i.e. in a mobile zonal set up. So may as well have it and hope things fall for us down the line.

It's like the new striker who keeps getting in scoring positions and missing. Either sooner or later things will turn in his/our favour (or it'll turn out he can't hit a barn door no matter how many scoring opportunities he gets presented with!).

[That ECM]

17 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Going the right way then

As long as lows keep dropping nw to se there is the opportunity for blocking to develop. We are very much in the game as we have been for awhile now. Don’t let the “nothing has worked” brigade convince you that therefore nothing can. it can always go “wrong” and we’ve seen enough examples of that so far but better to have chances than a nh profile that offers little chance. Frustrating of course. As nick said, there are snow opportunities for favoured areas between now and t240.

 

^^^ good analogy s4

Edited January 22, 2019 by That ECM

[kold weather]

Exactly Nick, it is somewhat of a high risk high reward thing, if the pieces do line up then we will get very snowy indeed and it maybe one of those rare cases that we get the snow cover BEFORE we get much deeper cold. 

[WINTRY WALES]

5 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Lack of input from GP is rather worrying!

Yes...and also Mr Murr....To me no Murr means no Brrrrrr ?

[snowbob]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Exactly Nick, it is somewhat of a high risk high reward thing, if the pieces do line up then we will get very snowy indeed and it maybe one of those rare cases that we get the snow cover BEFORE we get much deeper cold. 

The uk hasn’t been great at high risk this year though.

lets hope this one counts down better

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, snowbob said:

The uk hasn’t been great at high risk this year though.

lets hope this one counts down better

Got to treat each situation differently though, which I know really is difficult as many do rightly feel let down. I'm still going for a strong northern blocking 5-10th, if it comes earlier, then great!

[Jackski4]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

As long as lows keep dropping nw to se there is the opportunity for blocking to develop. We are very much in the game as we have been for awhile now. Don’t let the “nothing has worked” brigade convince you that therefore nothing can. it can always go “wrong” and we’ve seen enough examples of that so far but better to have chances than a nh profile that offers little chance. Frustrating of course. As nick said, there are snow opportunities for favoured areas between now and t240.

 

^^^ good analogy s4

I remain extremely positive, background signals amazing, very good charts this morning. What's not to like?

[SMU]

20 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Yes...and also Mr Murr....To me no Murr means no Brrrrrr ?

Lurking

but after tomorrow theres a bit of a lull in expectations -so having a breather

Met office still confident in a very cold end to Jan / start to feb !

[karlos1983]

Very happy with the overnight runs. 

GFS is a great run especially later on. Who’s got the mental capacity to chase this down 

UKMO looks good to me, the mild blip is a very short lived one and then we are straight back into a very cold N’Westerly. D6 holds promise going forward 

ECM is much better, but that wasn’t hard! it still looks out of kilter though to me towards the end. I Need to see the graph first. But 168 looks full of promise

all in all a good start today

 

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by karlos1983

[mulzy]

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well I for one have seen upgrades ahead.  If you hoped to wake up to 12,000 mile Easterlies from Japan, go back to bed.....there will not be any HLB before Feb that will directly influence the U.K.

The diving troughs on NW/SE axis is what we have and have coming.....this Fri and Sat will see a westerly milder feel before the next bout.  But the models this morning have sharpened up this and for me looks a colder outlook.  We need the troughing diving deeper into Europe which at some stage opens up the back door for Easterlies to develop with heights rising to NE, and the sharper the NW/SE axis the sharper the ridging in the Atlantic.  Although no deep cold on offer yet, but there looks to me some good chances of decent snowfall ahead before we get deep cold encroaches (and we have to be honest we MAY NOT get any deep cold as this could be the ongoing repeating pattern).....I’m happy with this mornings runs.

 

BFTP

[northwestsnow]

 EC mean again looks good - this time by day 8 onwards..

 

Edited January 22, 2019 by northwestsnow

[kold weather]

22 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

Yeah, had these charts been fresh without the baggage of failure there would be plenty of excitement.

As you say some good trends l. There is still some considerable amount of uncertainty With how the Atlantic responds. I'm am feeling more confident with regards to the blocking forming from the Atlantic with a slant to the east. Whether or not that's enough, we will see!

Edited January 22, 2019 by kold weather

[Snipper]

As many of the models have been so unreliable I understand that many forecasters are resorting to the OUIJA model.

In answer to the question will there be any snow this winter? it has come back   “F All”

[Chesil View]

Yes certainly agree about model fatigue. The current extended range looks promising but it has done since Xmas without delivering on that promise away from the usual high ground or transient smatterings elsewhere. So much more muted reactions are natural even with good looking charts.

[bluearmy]

32 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

Little to add - more ridging means cooler upppers again .... still think the downwelling is causing continuity issues 

Edited January 22, 2019 by bluearmy

[danm]

43 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I think a certain degree of model fatigue has set in but we need to keep the faith folks!

The last few EPS has shown a significant weakening of the Canadian vortex in the outer reaches.  That allied with higher heights across the polar fields in our sector and the low heights over Europe gives us a chance.  No promises but we are still in the game.

Yep agree with this. I think we’re all worn out by the last two months of model watching, and the failed easterly of this week was a kick in the guts. 

However, there is plenty of time left and plenty of potential. Just because it hasn’t happened yet, doesn’t mean it won’t happen over the next month. 

[TEITS]

Following on from my post last night. Im still not convinced the models are correct at even +96 to +144 let alone much further on. This is with regards to how the low at +96 interacts with the blocking to the NE. Compare the difference between say the UKMO & GEM at +144.

[booferking]

14 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Following on from my post last night. Im still not convinced the models are correct at even +96 to +144 let alone much further on. This is with regards to how the low at +96 interacts with the blocking to the NE. Compare the difference between say the UKMO & GEM at +144.

I would follow the ICON been doing rather well this spell.

[Timmytour]

LITTLE MODELS:  Gosh that was so much fun winding up the humans about a potential snowmageddon.  Can we do it again? Please...please...please?

BIG MODELS: Well....ok then...but remember the rules! Always make it start at least 5 or 6 days away!

LITTLE MODELS.... yay!  Come on everybody...let's do this!

ICON.... Shall I start teasing with my 6z run first?

ECM.... Good idea little one. Then I'll come in at 12z and appear to back you up...

[blizzard81]

8 minutes ago, booferking said:

I would follow the ICON been doing rather well this spell.

I agree. The icon was having none of it with regards to the easterly. Look at what it shows now at only 5 days out. Look at those uppers to our north east. I am a big believer in things balancing themselves out. Coldies have suffered immensely this season so far. I have a feeling things are going to tip the other way quite rapidly now. Fun times in the near future for the coldies. 

[bradymk]

6z this morning at +48, comparing to the 12z yesterday for the same time.

Perhaps won't be significant overall but a quite an increase (considering the timeframe) in heights to the north/north east and the high more amplified. See the ligher blue almost making its way to the wedge NE of us.

Today

Yesterday 12z

Edited January 22, 2019 by bradythemole