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Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

By Paul
in Spring Weather Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted (edited)

anim_wmj9.gif

Icon 0z, azores high trying to move slightly west but too much energy going over the top. Not looking too bad if fan of North Westerlies

Edited by geordiekev
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

UKMO 120 looks OK but 144 looks set to flatten out again..

Im not entirely sure but i think we are goung to need some assistance from the MJO to get some kind of blocking to the north west..

 

edit looks similar to GFS 144 and gfs goes onto produce a very interesting run..

who knows ..

Edited by northwestsnow
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geordiekev Experienced

geordiekev

Posted
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but boringly hot
  • Location: Dipton, Nr Consett, Co.Durham, 250m, 777ft asl
Posted

Looking at 2m temps around globe, it really is a kick in the teeth for us atm. I know meto and ec46 were touting beginning of Feb about 2 weeks ago whilst most on here including myself were hopeful of something a bit earlier, so I'm hoping they are on the money with this one as last weekend wont be forgotten too early on here.

20190122_045217.jpg

20190122_050215.gif

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tinybill Seasoned

tinybill

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
Posted

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

well looking at  the models things could get very interesting from  160  here in the  uk

gfs-2-180.png

gfs-2-186.png

naefs-0-0-240.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS 0z much more promising. Here T240, bringing a block, 

image.thumb.jpg.4c8c5e525d0e7fc8fb6e1c310e29bf74.jpg

And shredding the vortex properly by the end of the run:

image.thumb.jpg.59212ada8c5d8f816f48c0377b2f5fe4.jpg

 

 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 0z much more promising. Here T240, bringing a block, 

image.thumb.jpg.4c8c5e525d0e7fc8fb6e1c310e29bf74.jpg

And shredding the vortex properly by the end of the run:

image.thumb.jpg.59212ada8c5d8f816f48c0377b2f5fe4.jpg

 

 

What an awesome looking chart

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Roger J Smith Maestro

Roger J Smith

Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
Posted

I suppose one optimistic way of looking at this situation is that at least we are at about 4 or 5 on the 10 point scale of cold, as compared to the usual 2 or 3 at this point in the winter. Feels like the cold machine is spinning a bit wildly out of control just missing this or that opportunity, weather watchers in the coastal eastern U.S. feel exactly the same way (the massive snowfall went mostly inland and missed 90% of the population). At least where I live, I wasn't expecting much out of the winter and it has lived up to the El Nino reputation, although we have gotten some snow at times, about a third of what we had last winter so far. Still, not as if winter is almost over, we are really at the halfway point of opportunity for snow by climatology. 

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essexweather Enthusiast

essexweather

Posted
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms
  • Location: nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Some nice looking charts again this morning. Fits in nicely with the 15-30 day UKMO forecast from yesterday.

ECM starting to roll...

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looking better at 120 with a decent little northerly...

Now comes the crunch, 12z flattened everything 168 onwards..

Keep us updated!

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted

Silence is Golden.

Nice Closed Low with lots of rain at Day 10 and NOT the Snowmageddon charts 

Next......................................

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Silence is Golden.

Nice Closed Low with lots of rain at Day 10 and NOT the Snowmageddon charts 

Next......................................

It was only up to day 9 when you posted this. And this isn't a closed low. Guessing you're being ironic? No nastiness intended, just a bit confused

ECM1-216.gif

Edited by Seasonality
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

And not such a dartboard as the last run.

ECM1-240 (4).gif

ECM0-240 (4).gif

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Paul Sherman Veteran

Paul Sherman

Posted
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
  • Location: Leigh On Sea - Essex & Tornado Alley
Posted
2 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

It was only up to day 9 when you posted this. And this isn't a closed low. Guessing you're being ironic? No nastiness intended, just a bit confused

ECM1-216.gif

Ignore me was looking at completely wrong charts not even from ECM - Its early 

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
Just now, Paul Sherman said:

Ignore me was looking at completely wrong charts not even from ECM - Its early 

No worries, I thought I was going mad for a minute there 

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Anyway that 240 hour chart should be a snow event for the midands northwards and before that it should be snow showers packing in from the northwest from 120 hours onwards!!good start to the day so far!!

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Jackski4 Seasoned

Jackski4

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
Posted
4 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

No worries, I thought I was going mad for a minute there 

SO in conclusion, it's better than last run?

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)

Amazing synoptically on this mornings 00z, they are going for northern blocking again. IMO given factors others have mentioned, it is quite plauseable solution.

Biggest concern is lack of deep cold and we may require Abit of luck with LP placement but alot to be optimistic about this morning.. 

Not many people are bothered, looks like no one is willing to commit but this is many times more realistic than that easterly was with hindsight.

Edited by kold weather
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

SO in conclusion, it's better than last run?

Much but that was not a hard task  

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

SO in conclusion, it's better than last run?

Yep  Check out the uppers. That dartboard low makes all the difference

ECM0-240 (5).gif

ECM0-240 (6).gif

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