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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks great from my viiew point

To coin a phrase it’s “dyer”.

Anyway, it’s just one operational run.  Will hopefully sit on the mild side of the ensembles - we’ll know in about one hour.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Oh dear oh dear oh dear the runs are getting worse as the days go on . Bet my house the extended eps are even worse tonight . It’s going one way the wrong way . 

Yep. I think all those of a cold persuasion should receive a medal for incredible patience this winter. It's been tortuous. 

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
15 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Who expected that at t216 following the t192 output? Not me for sure

8ACE819F-85AC-46BD-8EF0-47DA492555DA.png

Good lord. That is awful. 

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Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

ARGHHHHHHH,  

 

Thats better , I have Never been so frustrated with following the modules.  I know it’s a roller coaster but cmon Really something is really taking liberties now .

78EDD0AB-B1F9-4EF6-9B5A-869A77C06464.jpeg

Edited by Mark wheeler
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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
1 minute ago, danm said:

Good lord. That is awful. 

Agreed but ukmo would go a different route imo. Let’s see where it sits but I think/hope it’s a wrongun

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
17 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

NW half of the country (plus Wales!) look snowy and cold, the SE half (though E.Midlands probably joins in with the snow) broadly more changeable temps and *mainly* rain (can't rule out a well placed LP/trough like the 12z GFS op had). If things really do get as cyclonic as the GFS 12z op wants, possible flooding issues may arise for some to the south of the snow line, though the dry first half of Jan will probably limit that somewhat.

Great, so northern areas get the lovely white stuff, whilst us down south get cold rain and potential floods!!  

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

The next phase is yet to be decided.... the models are feeling around for the new trend.

background singnals are good.....

watch this space...

Feb will come in like a lion  

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
12 minutes ago, mulzy said:

To coin a phrase it’s “dyer”.

Anyway, it’s just one operational run.  Will hopefully sit on the mild side of the ensembles - we’ll know in about one hour.

I think (hope) it's ballsed up the progression between 168 and 192. It just seems wrong.

Edited by Johnp
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies.

The ec46 did exactly the same two or three years ago. 

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
1 minute ago, terrier said:

Well what an awful ecm that was. This winter really is turning into a shocker. All the positive we seem to have had and looks like heading for a total bust. Ec46 has been garbage this winter. First it was a pattern change after Christmas. Then the big change was around the 10th January. If I’d got a pound for a 10 day chart this winter I’d be a very rich man. Just feels this winter just isn’t going to happen for the majority of the U.K. at least looks like some helpful rain in next few weeks if ecm verifies.

Whenever has the ECM verified once this Winter?

Never in a million years am I thinking we're heading for a total bust this Winter. Still countless factors in our favour in the next 6 weeks for something Wintry. Keep the patience!

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Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

Does anyone really think the latest Ecm run will verify at days 9 or 10??...good or bad..it never does!!! 

240_mslp500.png

240_thickuk.png

2rh5x2.jpg

Edited by Frosty.
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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I think (hope) it's ballsed up the progression between 192 and 216. It just seems wrong.

But the 192 chart hardly looks promising. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

The ec46 did exactly the same two or three years ago. 

Which is why we should calm down (I'm talking to you  Feb!) when it's run later this evening goes belly up. Why believe it now when it's been garbage for two months?

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

But the 192 chart hardly looks promising. 

ECH1-192 (1).gif

Yep, once that 192 chart was up, it was over as far as this run was concerned.  Anyway, let's pray it's a crazy outlier.

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Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: Shepton Mallet Somerset
4 minutes ago, chris55 said:

The next phase is yet to be decided.... the models are feeling around for the new trend.

background singnals are good.....

watch this space...

Feb will come in like a lion  

 

 

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  

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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
7 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

 

Ooops...accidentally quoted instead of just replying!

I get the feeling the a big sea change in the models is coming back to us tomorrow.  They've recently taken us away from the stonking charts of a few days ago, but it's not like they are maintaining a constant outlook. The outlooks have been relatively poor without being all that consistent in showing us why they will be poor.  Something in my bones tells me they are doing a 360 degree look around of all the options and will gradually start coming back close to what they were showing us at the back end of last week, in a nearer timeframe.  I expect to see the word "stonking" more than "stinking"  back in use to describe the model runs from tomorrow  

Edited by Timmytour
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Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  

Shih Tzu more likely

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

The way it going , probably a knackered out old one with half of its teeth missing, and blunt claws  

What I would give right now for half of what winter 78/79 gave

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Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
9 minutes ago, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Whenever has the ECM verified once this Winter?

Never in a million years am I thinking we're heading for a total bust this Winter. Still countless factors in our favour in the next 6 weeks for something Wintry. Keep the patience!

if my memory serves me right it was the first model to show the failed easterly a few days ago it took another 2 days before the other models caught  on to this and then they  dropped it but if it shows the same thing tomorrow morning well its as good as over sadly once again

Edited by igloo
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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

This Winter is starting to feel a little like Winter 2016/17 so far. I'm sure it was that one that showed a lot of potential early on, only to keep getting pushed back to the point where Spring finally arrived without a true Winter before it.

Was hoping for better after last Winter. Although the peak of that Winter didn't arrive until the very end of February and on into March, so there's still a fair few weeks left as far as the  possibility of a proper cold and snowy spell are concerned. At least last Winter though, here in the Midlands at least we had our first proper snow fix with the slider in early December 17 and there were a few odd wintry snaps with a little snow between then and the beast in late February/early March 18. So at least to this point so far last Winter was already much better than this one. 

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Posted
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Frosty Mornings
  • Location: Huntingdon Cambridgeshire 45ft ASL

Patiently waiting for the December 2019 hunt for cold thread

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