Cold hunt - models and chat

[IDO]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Guess whats showing on the gfs parra 10 +

As @bluearmy has stated wedges are showing up as a trend around D10 onwards. However, these flow within the upper pattern and are usually not enough to sustain a block. The GEFS show a propensity to that idea:

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Ridging into greeland!!! short term tho I reckon

Brilliant! Let's hope it stays 

[ICE COLD]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Same as it ever was

After the warm up this weekend temps will go back below average with milder weather coming and going

On the face off it that doesn’t look to shabby , if we could just drop that little bit more on the 850s then there be no marginal slush . I suppose it is possible maybe.

[pandit-scholar]

2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Excellent summary of how most of us are probably feeling on here, given that snowpocalypse is now off the table for January (except for all our friends in Scotland perhaps)!  Time hasn't run out yet but we sure need to see something dramatic happening in the next four weeks for it to be memorable given that Spring will then be just around the corner.  Just to show that this is possible, though, and to keep everyone's hopes alive, I have decided to risk a hail of criticism from the purists by posting the following CFS charts:

  

Yes, I know it's 900 hours away (27th February) and yes, I know they'll be gone tomorrow, but its worth looking at them because it shows a BFTE2019 is still possible, among the many millions of other possible ways the UK weather could go in the next 30 days.  Who knows, it might come earlier.  Or it might not happen at all....  All I know is that I will be here every day, like a mug, waiting for the models to show these conditions in the short term.  But then I always check my lottery numbers too, and that never works. 

As a bit of banter is allowed on this thread, I have to say that people are now getting really desperate on here, especially when you see posts using charts from the CFS. (just a joke). 

 

But seriously there is still a month and bit left in this winter, and traditionally February is the coldest month of the year. As I may recall (and I maybe wrong) the experts on here like Glacier Point forecasted this is be a backloaded winter. I am still confident we will still see a cold spell in February. We just have be patient and stop getting wound up by day 10 charts, which we all know are unlikely to happen, and change from run to run, but forget this in the anticipation and excitement of viewing the model runs. It used to be the same with me, but I have now got used to it.

[Weathizard]

12 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

On the face off it that doesn’t look to shabby , if we could just drop that little bit more on the 850s then there be no marginal slush . I suppose it is possible maybe.

Think those ensembles are very indicative of a cold but not cold enough for snow set up for many, probably the worst kind of set up from my perspective! I’m surprised by now we’ve not seen a pattern change, the SSW has really had little to no effect of the setup we are stuck in. I hate the term, but zonal reset anyone?  

[Guest]

Back loaded yes but all that means is it’ll likely be cooler than the front of winter which is very easy and inevitable!

[MP-R]

1 hour ago, Chris K said:

I can understand the frustration, as i feel that many on here move on to wanting spring warmth as soon as 1st March hits. The Azores high, whilst not an unusual feature, has been influencing our weather too much so far this winter. The constant grey skies are tedious for me and frankly any change is welcome now.

My interest is in weather extremes and not seasons. Last March I had some of the best snow drifts I have ever seen. It may have thawed more quickly, but it was fantastic to witness. I remember driving towards the severn crossings with snow blowing across the road.

For all I know I'll never see that again, so even the smallest hint of snow keeps me positive, even if I have to wait until March! If that high gets a chance to push North (or even up from the Pacific to the Arctic) and the euro trough signal remains, it would improve our chances going forward 

 

I largely agree. Although less interested in snow by March, I keep looking until roughly March 10th, anything after that being a bonus. Likewise, anything before December 10th is quite a bonus so 2017’s early snowfall was a nice surprise in that regard.

I still think though that the next 20 days we need to hit the jackpot. Jan 20th to Feb 10th is a perfect time for a good cold spell given the colder seas, colder continent and still weak sun. Of course we could get the goods later on like last year but that was thanks to an unusually cold draw of air with -16 and -13 uppers per beast.

From a purely weather enthusiast point of view, I’m looking forward to tomorrow. A typical January cold showery day with good cloudscales and wintry showers of all nature. I’ll be crossing the Mendips for business tomorrow so hoping for something there. There was snow from a -5 uppers westerly there a few years ago!

[bluearmy]

If I lived north of the midlands with some elevation, I’d be pretty excited about my projects for snowman building ......

for the rest of us, rather more tricky but certainly well in the raffle and funnily enough, with uppers becoming less low perhaps a better chance of snowfall as week two progresses .....

[Snowman.]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Think those ensembles are very indicative of a cold but not cold enough for snow set up for many, probably the worst kind of set up from my perspective! I’m surprised by now we’ve not seen a pattern change, the SSW has really had little to no effect of the setup we are stuck in. I hate the term, but zonal reset anyone?  

Zonal reset is a silly thing, the current setup is primed for amplification and a southerly tracking jet, as we get closer things will pop up and change, the failed easterly was picked up at what D7-D8 range? What's to say something similar can't happen again?

Never zonal reset puts us back to step 1 which would hunting for a stratopheric change which we're well passed!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If I lived north of the midlands with some elevation, I’d be pretty excited about my projects for snowman building ......

for the rest of us, rather more tricky but certainly well in the raffle and funnily enough, with uppers becoming less low perhaps a better chance of snowfall as week two progresses .....

Yes, if your talking on the NE flank of sliders or on the N flank of any low, sounds absurd but i've yet to see frigid uppers associated with any frontal snow event so you have a point.

[stratty]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If I lived north of the midlands with some elevation, I’d be pretty excited about my projects for snowman building ......

for the rest of us, rather more tricky but certainly well in the raffle and funnily enough, with uppers becoming less low perhaps a better chance of snowfall as week two progresses .....

It's in the bag then! 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If I lived north of the midlands with some elevation, I’d be pretty excited about my projects for snowman building ......

for the rest of us, rather more tricky but certainly well in the raffle and funnily enough, with uppers becoming less low perhaps a better chance of snowfall as week two progresses .....

Nick that’s just standard winter weather . Wasn’t we all exspecting a bit more than this slush ? It’s also trending the wrong way longer term as well now judging by the extended eps posted by @mulzy ? 

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Zonal reset is a silly thing, the current setup is primed for amplification and a southerly tracking jet, as we get closer things will pop up and change, the failed easterly was picked up at what D7-D8 range? What's to say something similar can't happen again?

Never zonal reset puts us back to step 1 which would hunting for a stratopheric change which we're well passed!

I know I hate the term but we’ve been stuck in this same pattern hoping for amplification for what seems like an age.

But also, a massive low sapping some energy from the lobe of death and resetting the pattern might honestly be the best option at this point, before you know it we will be in February and if the same pattern continues for too long, lasting snow is done for us in the south, I don’t actually remember the last February where we had proper ice days and laying snow down here. So maybe a bit IMBY as the north/Scotland seem to be alright.

[Snow Queen one]

I love snow and would love a repeat of last year but as some others have said we are surrounded by water which will always temper the temperatures we get.  Which ever way we look at it the seasons seem to have changed over the years and our best winter months come later in the year.  So do our summer months too btw. 

I for one am enjoying some sun and frost much better than dull with rain.  Let's just hope this next bite of the cherry at the beginning of Feb can deliver the goods.

[kold weather]

51 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Hot off the press (Apologies if already posted). Snow accumulation up to 6am Wednesday, from the Euro4. Some may scoff but, this is one of the most reliable high resolution models for snow accumulation and the parameters look good for snow even at modest elevation.

Even gives me down here settled snow...I've never seen settled snow from this sort of air source, so I'm a little sceptical to say the least, but there is always a chance to break that run and if it happens to Tues-Wed then I won't complain!

Looks like a decent little trough feature running from W-E though and has kind of come out of no where.

That should give a hint at to what can happen with diving cyclonic LPs, little features can crop up.

Edited January 21, 2019 by kold weather

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Nick that’s just standard winter weather . Wasn’t we all exspecting a bit more than this slush ? It’s also trending the wrong way longer term as well now judging by the extended eps posted by @mulzy ? 

Maybe for Scotland but not for England and n Wales ........ I’m very confident on what I’ve posted - get that sorted and then look for adjustments to low ground (which shouldn’t be too much of a problem ) and then to drop further south (which probably will !)

[kold weather]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

If I lived north of the midlands with some elevation, I’d be pretty excited about my projects for snowman building ......

for the rest of us, rather more tricky but certainly well in the raffle and funnily enough, with uppers becoming less low perhaps a better chance of snowfall as week two progresses .....

Totally agree BA. Of course there is always a risk we lose out, the south in particular are at real risk of things going wrong, but you have to be in the raffle to win it!

Models in the long term seem to be moving in a negative way with more going along with the idea central Atlantic upper low taking over, but there is still a large amount of time for that not to occur and I'm still expecting some decen t northern blocking between 5-10th (I always did think some of the models were being too progressive bringing vit in as early as the 30th of Jan). Not to say we can't get good wedging and mid latitude ridging before that time.

[Man With Beard]

06Z HIRLAM - snow by T48. Oh we all love the HIRLAM, don't we .

But before getting too excited, remember that anything outside the green zone will look more like a hard frost than a snowfall.

 

[Sweatyman]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Maybe for Scotland but not for England and n Wales ........ I’m very confident on what I’ve posted - get that sorted and then look for adjustments to low ground (which shouldn’t be too much of a problem ) and then to drop further south (which probably will !)

southern limit ? Brum possibly

[bluearmy]

Just now, Sweatyman said:

southern limit ? Brum possibly

Impossible to make a judgment .......

[Snowman.]

23 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I know I hate the term but we’ve been stuck in this same pattern hoping for amplification for what seems like an age.

But also, a massive low sapping some energy from the lobe of death and resetting the pattern might honestly be the best option at this point, before you know it we will be in February and if the same pattern continues for too long, lasting snow is done for us in the south, I don’t actually remember the last February where we had proper ice days and laying snow down here. So maybe a bit IMBY as the north/Scotland seem to be alright.

It's the PV it would continue to stick around, best we can hope for is Pacfic ridging which would drag the PV deeper into America allowing better rdiging in the Atlantic.

What we don't is a large Siberian high edging west, I know it sounds weird but it would close the Greenland height rise option and take away the cold uppers from Europe, personally a believe a wedge of heights is all we need to get a channel runner. Thinking back to some memorable snow events a lot of them are marginal but they give the best snowfalls.

I hope we get some HLB but I'm here for snow which doesn't require HLB but a zonal reset is the complete opposite of what we need.

Just to add the Para is how expect things to go, lows running south, polar heights forcing cold south. It's not great for long lasting snowfall totals but it's good for getting 20cm in one night.

Edited January 21, 2019 by Snowman.

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

Guess whats showing on the gfs parra 10 +

A tonking - but it is very late on in the run.

[Tonyinhampshire]

Interesting, when snow and deep freeze is predicted in America or Europe, even more than 10 days out , they get snow and ice days. With us we g et double figure temperatures, Now forecast in my area from the Weekend.

[snowbob]

11 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Interesting, when snow and deep freeze is predicted in America or Europe, even more than 10 days out , they get snow and ice days. With us we g et double figure temperatures, Now forecast in my area from the Weekend.

That’s due to the fact we are a relatively small island surrounded by warmish seas.

no huge land mass 

 

[Buzz]

12 minutes ago, Tonyinhampshire said:

Interesting, when snow and deep freeze is predicted in America or Europe, even more than 10 days out , they get snow and ice days. With us we g et double figure temperatures, Now forecast in my area from the Weekend.

This is what happens when you live on an island with a large body of water to your west, a direction where the winds and weather systems usual come from.