Cold hunt - models and chat

[sunnijim]

21 minutes ago, Chris K said:

I can understand the frustration, as i feel that many on here move on to wanting spring warmth as soon as 1st March hits. The Azores high, whilst not an unusual feature, has been influencing our weather too much so far this winter. The constant grey skies are tedious for me and frankly any change is welcome now.

My interest is in weather extremes and not seasons. Last March I had some of the best snow drifts I have ever seen. It may have thawed more quickly, but it was fantastic to witness. I remember driving towards the severn crossings with snow blowing across the road.

For all I know I'll never see that again, so even the smallest hint of snow keeps me positive, even if I have to wait until March! If that high gets a chance to push North (or even up from the Pacific to the Arctic) and the euro trough signal remains, it would improve our chances going forward 

 

Couldn't agree more with your thoughts.I know for many here it is all about the hunt for snow,  i do get that...and some folk are happy to wait patiently under a 'holding position' HP slug pumped up from the Azores for weeks on end.

Personally my interest is in extremes too, they don't even have to be that extreme to give me a buzz.

The squall line that develops and gives us hail and thunder and fantastic cloudscapes on a blue sky winters day, the deepening low that might produce high wind gusts,I could go on!

All absent overall from our Winter for the most part while we wait patiently or in some cases impatiently for something, anything to happen.

At least the week ahead holds some interest,the frost this morning was stunning and the polar maritime flow might throw up a few troughs and attendant interest.

[Banbury]

Just need to remember this is just the OP and be anywhere in amongst GEFS 

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

On cue gfs starts to pick up towards day ten ie increasing amplification

Both the ridges at D10 on ECM and GFS are topplers, just the finer details as to surface flow. With the Canadian PV lobe, there is simply no opportunity for HLB'ing ATM (unless the downwelling helps, and no sign of that). 

Are you really expecting a GH or sustained Atlantic Ridge without the Arctic High being favourable?

[Blizzardof82]

Like polishing a turd looking at current output, for me and many others a very frustrating Winter, Northerly topplers just don't cut the mustard for me.

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, IDO said:

Both the ridges at D10 on ECM and GFS are topplers, just the finer details as to surface flow. With the Canadian PV lobe, there is simply no opportunity for HLB'ing ATM (unless the downwelling helps, and no sign of that). 

Are you really expecting a GH or sustained Atlantic Ridge without the Arctic High being favourable?

Nope !!! I was just waiting for day ten to see the uptick.Ive not expected any hlb all winter tbh mate

[SLEETY]

Where are those bitter easterlies gone no sign of them even in fl.Feels like we are going to be chasing all winter.

Edited January 21, 2019 by SLEETY

[Methuselah]

What a wonderful winter it's been...for all those living in Day 10: stonkers and belters galore:

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

What a wonderful winter it's been...for all those living in Day 10: stonkers and belters galore:

DAY 10 is happening this time, okay?

[TEITS]

After my positve post yesterday the 0Z Iceland SLP ensembles have zapped my enthusiasim.

So we remain on the generally cold side. However any HLB seems to be disappearing or being put back which is the story of this winter.

[mountain shadow]

26 minutes ago, Banbury said:

The winner by a long way this year really has been the Azores High - so far 

Well, not really. The Azores high has not been able to ridge properly into Greenland/Scandinavia due to the permanent tropospheric polar vortex over NE Canada.

The models in the T+240 range have shown decent attempts, however, as we approach T+0, the models pick up the the short wave action around Southern Greenland which topples the pattern and puts us back to square one.

[SLEETY]

hah if these day 10 charts had ever verified,the whole of the U.K. would have been cut off from the outside world.Trains ,roads, houses buried,sea freezing over.Guess we all could have walked to France

That JMA run with low pressure undercutting the frigid air,nothing but a virtual dream

[Banbury]

One of the worst OP runs for sometime IMO from so early on as well 

[ChrisWSM]

Its like the 10 day forecast on here, the 10 day forecast on the weather outlook and metcheck all show snow falling for my area Bristol on at least  4 of those days in that 10 day period currently..but the met office forecast shows nothing similar and in fact has us up to 10degrees by the weekend.

So clearly something is wrong with the data some of these sites use as they don't ever materialise....

 

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, not really. The Azores high has not been able to ridge properly into Greenland/Scandinavia due to the permanent tropospheric polar vortex over NE Canada.

The models in the T+240 range have shown decent attempts, however, as we approach T+0, the models pick up the the short wave action around Southern Greenland which topples the pattern and puts us back to square one.

Disagree 

In terms of it fighting to keep cold away its done its job so very well 

[jules216]

13 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Yes Interesting, Im surprised by how there remains no appetite by any of the models to remove the PV from its long standing home and how long its taking for any downwelling to occur. 

The angle of the jet and the persistence of the azores high is actually hindering our chances as warm air is meeting cold dense air exactly where we don't want it to be. Firing up the jet and shutting down any decent chance of a ridge. 

 

Just look at southern Greenland and Iceland area, this is where various atmospheric forces meet/happen and no long range model,even medium range has got this figured out. That is why I keep quoting Ed Berry(GSDM) that NAO is virtually impossible to forecast beyond week 2, it is a pity that no teleconnective experts come here and try to explain or re-analyze the quasi permanent NAO fails of recent winters. I personally have no answer

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, not really. The Azores high has not been able to ridge properly into Greenland/Scandinavia due to the permanent tropospheric polar vortex over NE Canada.

The models in the T+240 range have shown decent attempts, however, as we approach T+0, the models pick up the the short wave action around Southern Greenland which topples the pattern and puts us back to square one.

It’s a very frustrating setup to be stuck in, seems like it’s been the whole winter with that high pivoting, being pulled away then being flattened again over us or to our south. The death lobe over Greenland and the AZH there have proved to be a real nightmare pairing as you would expect, I thought the SSW would be enough to impact the vortex and give us some HLB chances but of course the one piece of vortex we needed to be effected has barely been touched, despite the fact it keeps weakening in FI

[Banbury]

Just now, jules216 said:

Just look at southern Greenland and Iceland area, this is where various atmospheric forces meet/happen and no long range model,even medium range has got this figured out. That is why I keep quoting Ed Berry(GSDM) that NAO is virtually impossible to forecast beyond 2 days , it is a pity that no teleconnective experts come here and try to explain or re-analyze the quasi permanent NAO fails of recent winters. I personally have no answer

Edited 

[shaky]

Not the greatest 06z!!still cold with wintry showers but i dont think theres anything substantial!!ec46 so far has been pretty poor !!not saying its going to be wrong for february but ive got no confidence in it going forward!operational models are the king and shall always be!!!

[Jackski4]

Guys what time is ec46?

[Methuselah]

The difference between tropical thunderstorm activity and the NAO is, I believe, that whereas the former is an active 'driver', in that it actually causes things to happen, the NAO is merely a glorified subtraction, an end-product of events occurring elsewhere...? I guess that's why I pay no attention to it, whatsoever...

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

Guys what time is ec46?

2206 should be fully out but can be delayed, however, we will have a fair idea whether its previous output was rubbish and the trend is mildening by the temperature charts a2 hours before.

[Jackski4]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

2206 should be fully out but can be delayed, however, we will have a fair idea whether its previous output was rubbish and the trend is mildening by the temperature charts a2 hours before.

That's a long wait! Thankyou 

[jayb1989]

Here we go again chasing day 10 charts which never seem to verify. The nights are already getting shorter as we start to head towards spring. Just not meant to be this winter.

[Nick F]

6 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Where are those bitter easterlies gone no sign of them even in fl.Feels like we are going to be chasing all winter.

I think bitterly cold easterlies such as we were promised by the models last week are off the menu for a while, thanks to reluctance of arctic high to build and a continual feed of low heights and surface lows from Northern Canadian vortex towards NW Europe. Was always a niggling worry, which should have been more at the forefront, that the split strat vortex sent to Canada would be mirrored in the trop and would be a spanner in the works, along with lack of downwelling of easterlies  from stratosphere get HLB.

I do believe that eventually the Canadian vortex will shift or relent combined with long awaited reversal in lower strat finally impacting the trop sustainably to open up the chance for HLB this side of the North Pole, but it could be a wait into February, how long, difficult to say. 17 Jan 2013 SSW took until March to have any meaningful impact to allow HLB, the intermittent cold spells in Jan and Feb 2013 were trop driven.

[ICE COLD]

All we need now is the meto further 16 - 30 dayer to change and that will be the final BIG FAT nail in the coffin . I can see them dropping the very cold and then just downgrading slowly as the days go on to average weather . Not that it matters it’s been banging the cold drum since December and nothing has come off .