Cold hunt - models and chat

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Same set up? just delayed by 12 hours 

Really!!!! high collapsing tbh

[Chris K]

I can understand the frustration, as i feel that many on here move on to wanting spring warmth as soon as 1st March hits. The Azores high, whilst not an unusual feature, has been influencing our weather too much so far this winter. The constant grey skies are tedious for me and frankly any change is welcome now.

My interest is in weather extremes and not seasons. Last March I had some of the best snow drifts I have ever seen. It may have thawed more quickly, but it was fantastic to witness. I remember driving towards the severn crossings with snow blowing across the road.

For all I know I'll never see that again, so even the smallest hint of snow keeps me positive, even if I have to wait until March! If that high gets a chance to push North (or even up from the Pacific to the Arctic) and the euro trough signal remains, it would improve our chances going forward 

 

Edited January 21, 2019 by Chris K

[SLEETY]

gfs is miles different than 6 hours ago,really wonder why it goes out further than 144l laughable difference for the worse

Edited January 21, 2019 by SLEETY

[swfc]

Just now, SLEETY said:

gfs is miles different than 6 hours ago,really wonder why it goes out further than 144l laughable difference.

They are miles apart true.watch it upgrade now tho !!!!

[Jackski4]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

gfs is miles different than 6 hours ago,really wonder why it goes out further than 144l laughable difference for the worse

I feel as if the ECM is going to be the most consistent/reliable over the coming days. Opinions?

[Tim Bland]

I think tomorrow and tomorrow night is going to supprise people with the extent of the snow showers and troughs. Very cold upper air spills accross an unusually warm Atlantic, with almost a 20c difference between sea surface and upper air temp there will be some big (perhaps thundery) snow showers. NW is favoured obviously but troughs such as this one shown by the Hirlam model can pop up at short notice and deliver a couple of inches for some..

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

gfs is miles different than 6 hours ago,really wonder why it goes out further than 144l laughable difference for the worse

yes - even though we'd like to think the models - computers producing data - are all seeing - unfortunately it's a bit like pin the tail on the donkey after about day 4/5 - and for now until the next evolution in weather forecasting comes along that's pretty much where we'll be staying

[swfc]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

I feel as if the ECM is going to be the most consistent/reliable over the coming days. Opinions?

Possibly yes to that.That said it woudnt take much doing atm imo.Until that huge pv lobe towards Canada does one there will be a big struggle to bring any heigths ans proper cold

[Banbury]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

gfs 6 z looks poor at 132 hrs compared to the oz ridging wise ete  .like pulling hens teeth atm

Now I agree - its poor 

 

The OP I should add - 

 

Next!

Edited January 21, 2019 by Banbury

[Yozzer]

8 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

1032 DD  on Wednesday, mother nature getting her bikini on 

Let's hope she's beach ready, as I'm about to travel south of the equator!

[ALL ABOARD]

That PV is rampant.  Still no sign in the next 10 days of any influence from the downwelling of the SSW. 

[frosty ground]

13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because, despite the vast amount of resources put into computing, they still cannot handle short wave energy being ejected from the permanent NE Canada vortex. 

Not sure that relevant at all.

Heights (Arctic high) that where calculated to be in one position turned out to be in a different position, therefore the low height and shortwaves took a different track.

Shortwaves and bits of energy coming of the Canadian vortex was always forecast to happen, but without the wedge being in the right place to promote blocking the easterly failed.

Some of the runs last week has up to 6 sliders from start to finish, these sliders where created of bits of Vortex being thrown our way.

[Banbury]

The winner by a long way this year really has been the Azores High - so far 

[SLEETY]

Always in the wrong place the Azores high ,but seems to disappear at the end of winter in recent years hence two bitter Marches in 5 years

[IDO]

1 minute ago, Jackski4 said:

I feel as if the ECM is going to be the most consistent/reliable over the coming days. Opinions?

In such a setup expect inconsistency as the norm, I would be more concerned if a model showed consistency! With the battle between the macro; E US trough -v- Atlantic High -v- euro trough -v- Siberian high -v- Asian trough -v- Pacific ridge, expect the ebb and flow of that power struggle, along with the mesoscale features like wedges and lows to interfere with surface conditions and the flow of upper cold.

Remember the old adage: lies, damn lies and D10 ECM charts!

[swfc]

The difference on the 6z from the oz so is huge so early on????

[jules216]

ECMWF monthly from 4 updates ago vs most recent GFS run for similar dates. ECMWF  nailed USA pretty well and some parts of Europe, but look at NAO debacle.

[SLEETY]

well one month bust from the seasonal models precdicting HLB throughout January ,let’s hope the forecast for the same for  February doesn’t go bust as well.

[Weathizard]

[The Northern Ramper]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Is he banned from here?

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, jules216 said:

ECMWF monthly from 4 updates ago vs most recent GFS run for similar dates. ECMWF  nailed USA pretty well and some parts of Europe, but look at NAO debacle.

Yes Interesting, Im surprised by how there remains no appetite by any of the models to remove the PV from its long standing home and how long its taking for any downwelling to occur. 

The angle of the jet and the persistence of the azores high is actually hindering our chances as warm air is meeting cold dense air exactly where we don't want it to be. Firing up the jet and shutting down any decent chance of a ridge. 

 

[swfc]

On cue gfs starts to pick up towards day ten ie increasing amplification

[IDO]

Comparing ECM to GFS we see the ingredients are the same, just ECM has added spice to the meal with more intense blocks. Maybe somewhere in the middle:

[Jackski4]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

On cue gfs starts to pick up towards day ten ie increasing amplification

Always 10 days from happiness

[SLEETY]

looked better until it starts toppling again.No sustained northerly until we get proper blocking