Cold hunt - models and chat

[Chesil View]

Commenting on the ECM op run only For the moment there is just to much west to east energy to allow blocking or even worthwhile wedges to do their job.

Ens may show something different 

[SLEETY]

Well amazing!we get another easterly again at day TEN ,but the severely cold uppers over Europe have disappeared .

Minus 8 uppers for everyone in Europe now is the norm it appears at the end of this run.

Edited January 21, 2019 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

I'm not going to post all the EC but its generally cold, moreso the further north you go with -7 uppers widely north of the midlands..

Ends at day 10 with uppers of -7/-8 widely as the jet sinks south, to leave 

Plus being the UK stays cold , downside we still cannot shake off the energy from the canadian vortex..

[smith25]

9 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

The problem is is these deep areas of low pressure in the US unjecting energy into the jet stream and therefore pushing away a blocking high over Scandinavia which was originally going to be building by the middle of this week but because of that storm from the US it has complicated things a lot!

 

Im sure we can find a way to blame trump for it!.

[SMU]

5 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Commenting on the ECM op run only For the moment there is just to much west to east energy to allow blocking or even worthwhile wedges to do their job.

Ens may show something different 

yes agree- not the best of runs- However UKMO / GFS better with more wedgy type blocking towards Greenland-

Still cold to very cold on the ECM though...

[Jackski4]

7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Well amazing!we get another easterly again at day TEN ,but the severely cold uppers over Europe have disappeared .

Minus 8 uppers for everyone in Europe now is the norm it appears at the end of this run.

Are minus 8 uppers enough for the UK to be very cold with a potential easterly on the cards?

[SLEETY]

Just now, Jackski4 said:

Are minus 8 uppers enough for the UK to be very cold with a potential easterly on the cards?

Think so and a bitter easterly is expected in Feb by the longer range models,but 10 day is a long way off so it will change for better or worse.At least a cold pattern is locked in for the foreseeable.

[Polar Maritime]

GFSP showing a cold PM blast Mon/Tue next week, With -9/-10 uppers over the majority of the UK and possible widespread snowfall.

GFS making it more a Northerly flow..

Certainly a wintry outlook looking at the models this morning with temps mainly keeping below avg.

Edited January 21, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Jackski4]

5 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Think so and a bitter easterly is expected in Feb by the longer range models,but 10 day is a long way off so it will change for better or worse.At least a cold pattern is locked in for the foreseeable.

It's gonna be a long next 5/6 days until the models firm up on any details!

[mb018538]

Looks like a whole heap more energy is going to spill off the eastern seaboard and ruin things yet again. Let’s hope we can sneak some heights in before it all goes flat and wrong yet again.

[West is Best]

15 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

At least a cold pattern is locked in for the foreseeable.

???

Perhaps in the winters of 78/9 or February 86 but there is not really a cold pattern locked in on this morning's models. There is some evidence of cold incursions, but these are mostly still beyond T168 and change from run to run. There is insufficiently strong blocking, especially to our north-west over Greenland and this, coupled with the jet, is encouraging a westerly counter-force. In such circumstances 49 times out of 50 the west wins. Sadly.

I urge some caution.

[West is Best]

^^^ As mb018538 says.

[nick sussex]

Not much change this morning .

Same pattern out to day ten which comprises an amplified ridge in the west USA, trough in the east . And jet track se into the UK.

Although that’s set the uncertainty is in relation to what shortwaves do as they encounter the PV lobe over ne Canada and run into the Atlantic .

This makes a difference for the UK because it’s these that effect the development of small wedges of high pressure ahead .

You can already see these differences between the models at day 6.

[IDO]

The GFS 0z run is a lot slower with the Atlantic compared to the 18z, quite the opposite ends of the envelope for the upcoming pattern. The nascent Atlantic ridge starts climbing at T138 and takes to T288 to topple and allow another chunk from the Canadian PV lobe to slide SE!

Clearly, some fine tuning needed by the models to nail this developing pattern and TBH would not rule the 0z out.

The ECM has another run with the Siberian High blocking the eastward slippage of the euro trough, but GFS already toned this down. ECM is known to overplay its hand with new patterns, blowing up highs, so I expect the Siberian High to moderate accordingly in future runs, and that would collapse the Atlantic ridge faster and a trend towards the GFS. The GFS op has solid cluster support.

With the D16 mean suggesting any HLB is going to be on the Asian side of the NH, with the PV lobe in Canada, we are really looking at scraps of cold, with any brutal cold way away from our quadrant:

At the moment it looks like the cards have been dealt and our opening gambit is pretty average! 

[feb1991blizzard]

If anyone needed convincing that there is no sign of nirvana in the modelling then surely the above post is it, more to the point, who actually posted it!

[karlos1983]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If anyone needed convincing that there is no sign of nirvana in the modelling then surely the above post is it, more to the point, who actually posted it!

I’m almost at my wits end with this winter. I know there’s still a while to go, but all I see at the moment is that stubborn PV lobe and it’s not going anywhere fast. 

Hideous output this morning, unless you live on pretty high ground in the North!

The EC46 update tonight will be interesting. 

Edited January 21, 2019 by karlos1983

[Duane S.]

17 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Commenting on the ECM op run only For the moment there is just to much west to east energy to allow blocking or even worthwhile wedges to do their job.

Ens may show something different 

Yep, agreed BB. Certainly scuppered our mid term chances this week.

A shame as it was looking more likely than not for a while that we would get a follow-on easterly after the trough dropping through the UK/France later this week.

However, I would say, if we could get this jet profile to verify in a week's time, the start of Feb could start to get very interesting.

So whilst I do feel that the amplification signal is probably going to wane for a bit, there has to remain the much more unkinown lottery of SSW feedback, that could swing things suddenly back in our favour yet.

And in the meantime, no real mild in sight, it remains cold with colder incursions and a wintery mix.

We probably need to set aside the very real fact of what could have been and look at the here and now. Which is that we are a far (far) better position to be in than the average 21st of January.

[Jackski4]

Half of you saying it's gonna be cold/very cold with a blocking potentially and other half saying it's nothing like that.... This feels a lot like Brexit!

[bluearmy]

The dropping trough next week already looks more convincing than it did at the same stage last weeks modelling for this week. whether it can get south of the uk and sustain is the question ......

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

I’m almost at my wits end with this winter. I know there’s still a while to go, but all I see at the moment is that stubborn PV lobe to and it’s not going anywhere fast. 

Hideous output this morning, unless you live on pretty high ground in the North!

The EC46 update tonight will be interesting. 

At least the 46 will tell us if anything has changed for the worse in the long range as eps look consistent with last run.

[mountain shadow]

Nigh on a month since the SSW and there's still no favourable high latitude blocking,  essentially we're feeding off scraps as the jet runs NW -SE from the permanent trop PV over NE Canada. 

Therefore,  opportunities for snow continue on occasion for areas exposed to the NW airstream but nothing too extreme or troublsome. 

Maybe we'll get some proper blocking in mid to late February. 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

The dropping trough next week already looks more convincing than it did at the same stage last weeks modelling for this week. whether it can get south of the uk and sustain is the question ......

Unfortunately there will always be winners and losers Blue..

If your near the south coast it looks naff, if your north of the midlands with altitude there are wintry suprises on offer i would have thought..

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Nigh on a month since the SSW and there's still no favourable high latitude blocking,  essentially we're feeding off scraps as the jet runs NW -SE from the permanent trop PV over NE Canada. 

Therefore,  opportunities for snow continue on occasion for areas exposed to the NW airstream but nothing too extreme or troublsome. 

Maybe we'll get some proper blocking in mid to late February. 

Understand your frustration but why mid to late February when 1st February is still 11 days away?  Well outside the reliable timeframe?

[snowfish1]

1 hour ago, swfc said:

The theme of lows moving South East looks to be locked in with little in the way of hlb imo.good for high ground esp Scotland and the NW.not what we all want to see "if you want deep cold and really low 850s"but it's what it is.im personally a bit weary of this winter altho plenty of time left.a front crossing the UK followed by a few showers isn't going to float my boat but beggers can't be choosers I guess!!!

Totally agree. This poxy country 

[bradymk]

Looking at tomorrow, a more organised band of precip is now showing on some of the models crossing the southern half of UK tomorrow afternoon.

Could give a surprise covering to some.