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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Very good control run from the 18z GFS with plenty of snow opportunities for all and also just enough cold to keep things as snow for most.

GFS Para is ALOT flatter of a run but there is still some decent snow chances, but we will see where it goes later in the run with regards to any ridging and blocking.

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.b8a03d950fa7222705923f8fa49f9812.png

Uninspiring 18z GEFS.

Yep standard cold drizzle

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.b8a03d950fa7222705923f8fa49f9812.png

Uninspiring 18z GEFS.

They look ok to me Feb,-5 mean has been consistant for some time now ,so nothing has changed.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

They look ok to me Feb,-5 mean has been consistant for some time now ,so nothing has changed.

Hardly any -8c and only 1 below -10c.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Well if you want a late Sunday evening laugh, I would highly recommend the GFS Control run in FI.  Totally bonkers, onto tomorrow for some more drama.  

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Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

They are NW on them charts Matt.

On the fax charts?

Euro4 has westerly winds, at odds with every other model. Seem strange. Wonder if it will change on the next update. That would alter the shower distribution.

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.b8a03d950fa7222705923f8fa49f9812.png

Uninspiring 18z GEFS.

-5 mean throughout? Confused what you mean by this feb what were you expecting? It’s a bit a quiet period at the moment a mean of -5 is good for now IMO

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Hardly any -8c and only 1 below -10c.

Lets see if they trend colder over the next few runs but i will take them over mild dross that half of this winter has produced,onwards and upwards we hope.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Well the 18z GFS ensembles are more or less useless for trying to figure out a pattern past 120hrs to be honest and there are a lot of very different solutions!

Lots of snow opportunities on a large percentage of those runs, and the cortex keeps spitting out upper lows into the Atlantic and towards W.Europe. Other than that, no real signals crop up from the ensembles!

ps, a lot of those -5C type runs also have Lps quite close by as well. Deep cold is not on the table for at least the next 12 days at least, but you DON'T need deep cold in the right set-up.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

-5 mean throughout? Confused what you mean by this feb what were you expecting? It’s a bit a quiet period at the moment a mean of -5 is good for now IMO

Like to see a big downward trend at the end as a sinking trough and the ridge extending iceland draws in a frigid NE flow rather than just a lee Easterly.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The para is total dirt T300 . 

6C8C54FF-3731-46A3-ACC9-A65361485B67.png

that looks brutally cold here

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Posted
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
  • Weather Preferences: All 4 seasons and a good mixture of everything and anything!
  • Location: Delph, historic West Riding of Yorkshire, 225m asl
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.ab921c2c522ffb3016d873eb2d7fbdef.pngimage.thumb.png.e18883a60009b25413acf289f3fdb70a.png

Tasty looking charts. The spine of the accumulation down the Pennines in Northern England most likely is for areas over around 200m but possibly lower. 

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Posted
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
  • Weather Preferences: Cool and Stormy
  • Location: Eshaness, Shetland Islands
5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the 18z GFS ensembles are more or less useless for trying to figure out a pattern past 120hrs to be honest and there are a lot of very different solutions!

Lots of snow opportunities on a large percentage of those runs, and the cortex keeps spitting out upper lows into the Atlantic and towards W.Europe. Other than that, no real signals crop up from the ensembles!

ps, a lot of those -5C type runs also have Lps quite close by as well. Deep cold is not on the table for at least the next 12 days at least, but you DON'T need deep cold in the right set-up.

It is concerning that there is still is no real signal for anything v cold or sustained cold. The current colder air just isn't that good for the majority of the country or lowland areas. Transient wintery showers isn't really what we are looking for.  It seems that the longer range models, so far, have failed big time this winter. Still very much time to change, but I suspect if we go through this week and there is still no great outlook, then a few people will be scratching their heads. 

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Not sure if anyone's posted these, but EURO4 looked quite impressive for coverage of snow showers through Tuesday and the Met Office fax charts show this well.

The following are for midday tuesday and tuesday night/wed, both show various troughs moving across the country showing increased precipitation and few small accumulations likely from these in places. Favoured areas look to be western areas.

231249300_Tue12fax.thumb.gif.0e1c9811ccc5d8628ab5632ef363e710.gif837258635_Wed00.thumb.gif.8c90a73d658137586929a3cca5eb2368.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, shetland islands said:

It is concerning that there is still is no real signal for anything v cold or sustained cold. The current colder air just isn't that good for the majority of the country or lowland areas. Transient wintery showers isn't really what we are looking for.  It seems that the longer range models, so far, have failed big time this winter. Still very much time to change, but I suspect if we go through this week and there is still no great outlook, then a few people will be scratching their heads. 

I'd say that broadly its still a set of fairly cold runs, though as noted tgere really isn't many runs yet which are showing any deep cold, but that is the trade of for allowing a set-up that allows more snow attempts and as I said there are quite a lot of runs that have decent snow opportunities, especially for Midlands northwards,

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

WOW thats a BIG upgrade for my location!!!

Huge for the southeast I'm. So excited 

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
4 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Huge for the southeast I'm. So excited 

Glad to see someone else is still cold hunting at this late hour! 

 

ECM looks promising especially as we head out of next weekend.. Looks best for Northern or western areas, but we remain faithful down here in the SE. With all that cold I think it's just a matter of time before we get a big snow event.

 

Don't dismiss this Thursday either, with a little low clipping the north sea coasts!

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
41 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

Glad to see someone else is still cold hunting at this late hour! 

 

ECM looks promising especially as we head out of next weekend.. Looks best for Northern or western areas, but we remain faithful down here in the SE. With all that cold I think it's just a matter of time before we get a big snow event.

 

Don't dismiss this Thursday either, with a little low clipping the north sea coasts!

4 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s not a wind up. It’s very much real. 

giga bite mega bite and terabite u sure , where is this from then, can't even think why they would show a chart in that form

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Posted
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL
  • Location: Darwen (Near Blackburn) 210m ASL

As its model banter and its the early hours of the morning , im putting tge weekend downgrades as weekend model runs.... is it just me or every weekend come 18z friday night the Modles completely flip to what they have been showing all week, and then by Monday were back to a half way house solution

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Posted
  • Location: Canterbury
  • Location: Canterbury
8 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

giga bite mega bite and terabite u sure , where is this from then, can't even think why they would show a chart in that form

 

4 hours ago, doctormog said:

The balloon data appears to be at 77MB rather than the 18z norm of 99MB. I doubt those 20MB would make any significant impact on the 2TB set.

I’m guessing the 91% is based on the deviation from the daily average not the 18z one

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/gfs_gdas_observation_amount_quality.asp

Link in doctormogs post takes you straight to it

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
15 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

As its model banter and its the early hours of the morning , im putting tge weekend downgrades as weekend model runs.... is it just me or every weekend come 18z friday night the Modles completely flip to what they have been showing all week, and then by Monday were back to a half way house solution

Stay positive☺!

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