Cold hunt - models and chat

[snowfish1]

1 minute ago, TEITS said:

Incredible N Hemisphere chart.

Despite the recent changes with the E,ly. I remain very excited with the current model output.

How comes do u also suspec the changes have yet to. Establish themselves? 

[Paul]

Just now, Spah1 said:

Why? 

Its always Jam tomorrow. 

Would you prefer no jam tomorrow? 

And anyway, if you want some cold and snow chances - Monday into Tuesday looks ok. 

Glass half full!

[Mike Poole]

Pub run T312

The point is that it isn't wrong, this is what is expected following SSW, it won't happen like this, most probably,  but it will happen eventually.

[snowbob]

2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Incredible N Hemisphere chart.

Despite the recent changes with the E,ly. I remain very excited with the current model output.

Care to enlighten us teits 

would love to know your thoughts

[ICE COLD]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just for fun of course but this is going to be a stonker, this huge trough is only clearing South slowly, there is still some serious frigid air to the NE, it could be dragged in on another E'ly by about 324.

Like this feb . We should be able to count this down to T0 , as we rarely have any problems getting it here . lol 

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here she comes!!!

.

It’s like she’s almost apologising for taking us on this heart wrenching journey!

[Catacol]

16 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I suspect that we are entering a rinse an repeat type scenario here. So probably we will see another slider followed by another easterly chance down the line - but will it stick?

I think I agree with that. Given that patterns tend to ebb and flow a bit (I’m sure a physicist somewhere could explain the process through waves...but for a numptly like me I just observe...) it seems highly likely that the long wave pattern we are moving into will prompt another attempt at the NW block very soon.

I don’t think the old model thread covered itself in glory today. Disappointing runs for sure - but if you remove the op run hype of the previous day solid predictions from technical posters of the pattern for the end of the week were conspicuous by their absence, and the reason was simple: nothing from Wednesday onwards ever looked nailed on. I’m not sure why people hang on individual runs so much and lose sight of forcings and hemispheric pattern....but it has been the case all along that the forcings of the SSW and Pacific have been clear to see, but equally clearly timings have been an issue. Can interested amateurs hope to get timings right when even the Met, with their supercomputer and dedicated professional staff, have also struggled this season....with the approach of colder conditions consistently put back? I think not. 

The droppng of the trough into Europe midweek was the only feature of the pattern change that was “easy” (comparatively) to spot at around the 192 range but the specific direction of travel after that has been hazy.

However let’s be clear. Firstly, as I tried to show last night, models all have their frailties and ECM is not king all of the time. On that basis take the full suite we have available and never right any off entirely. Taking next week as the focus there remains a huge amount of uncertainty as to what happens once heights over Europe have lowered, and while a raging easterly now looks unlikely for Thurs/Friday this doesn’t mean an easterly is out the question soon after. Secondly - and related to this - ensembles are still good, and if you cycle back to the wise words of John H earlier today the prognosis remains good. Thirdly the drivers that a few people today have tried to knock (and if we’d think we can’t improve our weather understanding then why are we here....hence such posts seem extremely odd to me) are still here and approaching peak impact. If an easterly is lost for Thurs/Fri then we move on to the next opportunity, somewhat disappointed but still optimistic given those drivers. And lastly - some people may get a good snow event on Tues/Weds....an event we were able to signpost at around a week and should have people pleased!!! Sitting in the SW I’m a bit envious of those in the midlands and north who may cash in....good luck to you all.

Finally - good points have been made today about probability. Has to be true. We are never dealing in certainties when looking at forecasting beyond 72 hours ( and often at considerably less....) and it is worth reflecting on this. Probability means that outside chances can happen. And huge favourites don’t always come out on top. Reflect on that. As one fellow Scottish Rugby fan said earlier - bloody good job too. If the outlier and the underdog was automatically doomed the world would be an extremely dull place. So as we are all weather enthusiasts in here, perhaps we should cling to the understanding that hunting snow is a long odds game in the UK and be comfortable with that, or go find another hobby.

 

[chris78]

1 minute ago, Paul said:

Would you prefer no jam tomorrow? 

And anyway, if you want some cold and snow chances - Monday into Tuesday looks ok. 

Glass half full!

Jar. 

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

9 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Was joking with my last comment, but considering how this winter has gone so far it wouldn't surprise me

The long term definitely looks interesting, could see some major snowfalls with those charts. But let's wait until we start seeing them within a reasonable timeframe before we get too excited

Have you not heard of the old saying 9c in Thurso doth not make an early spring?!  

This GFS run does turn rather snowy just outside the reliable despite the route it takes looking rather dubious...

Edited January 19, 2019 by Kentish Snowman

[feb1991blizzard]

POLAR LOW ALERT!!

!

[ICE COLD]

Well here we go again

[Rocheydub]

The real point is, before I actually do log out for a couple of days, is that the SSW has happened. It most probably will leave us with HLB's sooner rather than spring. We lost out this time. That's all. Hope "springs" eternal!

[Day 10]

Trying to remember, but hasn't the ec46 been progging this kind of pattern for a number of weeks for this timescale?

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, Day 10 said:

Trying to remember, but hasn't the ec46 been progging this kind of pattern for a number of weeks for this timescale?

Yes.

[snowbob]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

POLAR LOW ALERT!!

!

Exactly my point feb

madness

0z is gonna be a good run

[PsychedelicTony]

Its like watching the tide edge closer to the kids sandcastle.

Numerous attempts but you know it will engulf it soon.

Edited January 19, 2019 by PsychedelicTony

[snowbob]

The ensembles were not letting this go

this has many ups and downs yet

its still on 

imo

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, snowbob said:

Exactly my point feb

madness

0z is gonna be a good run

First things first, lets get the 18z GEFS graph looking good in FI -  forget the short term now, unless slushy 1 inch deposits is your thing, also the EPS london graph, no reason to suggest that won't be good in FI though, even during these crappy ECM op runs, the FI ens graph has remained rock solid.

[TEITS]

1 minute ago, snowbob said:

Care to enlighten us teits 

would love to know your thoughts

Simply put because it's clear (even to myself) the effects the SSW is having and likely to have as we head into Feb.

I have witnessed many failed E,lys in the past. However this isn't one of those situations when the failed E,ly is being replaced by a postive AO and well established Polar Vortex. Appears to me the AO could well become strongly negative and its more of a case of when rather than if the cold spell we all crave arrives.

[CSC]

Many do think the the low coming out the USA is further N/NW than forecast. This could have huge ramifications for the UK.

The METO fax charts tonight represent that. They have, for the first time in sometime, amended their OWN model charts due to this uncertainty on our weather. 

There is no certainty we still won't get the E/NE next week. We haven't even sorted the next 96h never mind whats after. 

There is still that chance everything will change tomorrow and this it not out of the realms of possibility. 

Tomorrow we go again!

[ICE COLD]

Well st least the drunken pub run cheered us up lovely run in FI

Edited January 19, 2019 by ICE COLD

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, PsychedelicTony said:

Its like watching the tide edge closer to the kids sandcastle.

Numerous attempts but you know iot will engulf it soon.

Agree, I think it's only a matter of time.

[Cuban Zebra]

Just as you think you kind of get this model watching lark this happens!!!

[steveinsussex]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

POLAR LOW ALERT!!

!

3rd feb I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

 

come on now

[Roger J Smith]

We all know what's going to happen in ten days' time ... it will be turning cold ten days from then.