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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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I think we can bin the GFS 18z already. The low to the East of Scotland is literally just sitting there frame after frame not moving whatsoever..

But otherwise, subtle improvements 

AE5E10BD-0D8F-4EE0-920D-EE6843988892.thumb.png.c1d9dce9282a8f832cdb20ac254f2c57.png

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There is something very odd about the run as a small low appears around Scotland and literally doesn't move for 24 hours whilst everything else disrupts SE...Can someone explain how it stays still as the rest moves and disrupts?

image.thumb.png.2af247fd47881eb2e38f2c1f738fd94d.png

image.thumb.png.7635638f23fa8fcf35438ecdc764a1cf.png

image.thumb.png.039d8a5d455e110d992a47a83c629a73.png

image.thumb.png.c34ed82c1b111e3061d06bb53a1ba6ff.png

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Not sure I would agree with you there. The foundations are here and now, moving the pieces about might bring something colder but the chances are the same.

GEFS show HP domination in FI.

 

FD0D9C40-70D7-47F9-B938-C037FA753BCA.png

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Am I still on Net Weather? Or has everyone gone out tonight? 

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2 minutes ago, Biensie said:

Am I still on Net Weather? Or has everyone gone out tonight? 

Oh the days of going out every Friday and Saturday night........

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1 minute ago, Biensie said:

Am I still on Net Weather? Or has everyone gone out tonight? 

This idea of Paul's has backfired. Moan about one liners so end up with a forum with no posts instead. 

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7 minutes ago, captaincroc said:

There is something very odd about the run as a small low appears around Scotland and literally doesn't move for 24 hours whilst everything else disrupts SE...Can someone explain how it stays still as the rest moves and disrupts?

image.thumb.png.2af247fd47881eb2e38f2c1f738fd94d.png

image.thumb.png.7635638f23fa8fcf35438ecdc764a1cf.png

image.thumb.png.039d8a5d455e110d992a47a83c629a73.png

image.thumb.png.c34ed82c1b111e3061d06bb53a1ba6ff.png

The disturbance is in a slack flow north of the jetstream.

 

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Be done with it: anim_cfg7.gif

If we are going to have a toppler, speed it up, so we can move on! The pattern flattens faster again on this run...

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The low hanging around the North East Coast retains the best of the coldest temps as the run moves along presumably making it harder to shift. will await a met explaining fully in a more articulate manner.

image.thumb.png.444d1e1b4f808fcabbe3e7106c247952.png

 

Edited by lorenzo

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Model uncertainty continues, 18z at 138 vs the 12z. Pretty big difference at that range.

18z image.thumb.png.b5bc71865cbac51908db7b484c64941b.png 12z image.thumb.png.0114cbc978bc5a70f99be28cbfa693d5.png

Interestingly, Shannon Entropy has increased over the last 24 hours so some further wild swings over the next few days are to be expected. Will they be upgrades or downgrades though?

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Just now, chionomaniac said:

I suspect that we are entering a rinse an repeat type scenario here. So probably we will see another slider followed by another easterly chance down the line - but will it stick?

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

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7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Bit confused about where to post now!

Both! Maybe commentate on the models and chat about it as they come out in here. Then once a run is complete perhaps summarise it with a more in depth post in the other thread. You could even cross post that into here.

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gfs-0-150.png?18

Another low that has just stopped in its tracks! really odd run so far

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Just now, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Chino, are you surprised that the recent ssw is still not bearing fruit in any model? It seems to be a winter of deep cold being around the corner. Only problem is the corner keeps moving

Nope - it’s just that the uk isn’t around that corner - most parts of the NH have been at some point!  

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Atlantic active again... SSW not enough? Interesting that amongst all the waxing and waning we still can’t seem to get that lobe of vortex to weaken significantly... seems to only ever weaken in FI, hasn’t been getting any closer.

674ED29D-830F-4D0C-A22F-A6C29CE07ED9.png

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The low sat to the E of Scotland really doesn’t make any sense while energy around it disrupts SEwards it doesn’t move at all

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There’s no reason for it to just.. stop like that, I don’t think I’ve ever seen that on a model run before

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Just now, Ice Day said:

And what an odd shaped PV?

image.thumb.png.09c340e9b4bf6041e38cac5611306457.png

Its sticking one finger up at us

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