Cold hunt - models and chat

[Mr Frost]

I think some folk need counselling in here at the moment!

This GFS run looks snowy so far for many parts of the UK and Ireland and I will take marginal snow events over mild mush at anytime in Winter! 

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Weathizard]

Just now, frosty ground said:

What is west based?

Look at the vortex draining away and the arctic high... terrible run

[Mucka]

The UKMO and GFS in agreement with the phasing that occurs in the shorter term and a more developed low crossing the country 72h+ which would mix out the cold air more but really not have much effect on the broader scale pattern.

They begin to diverge where the differences with how they handle upstream become more apparent after a few days.

I think the UKMO is more on track than GFS at 144 hours with GFS too fast and flat but I would make a few changes to the UKMO 144 chart as well.

If the UKMO were correct the next low would disrupt against the transient ridge keeping the UK in relatively cold air and I expect the 168 chart would show that.

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Mucka

[Banbury]

Put this in the bin ( but leave the lid off) until you see the Para and the ENS , its so different 

[Met4Cast]

UKMO/GFS differ quite largely at T120

As said earlier model volatility likely to be on the increase again. GFS showing that with the wild swings in the later output though that's always to be expected to some extent. 

Nothing has changed all that much in the last few days, winds broadly N/NW with low pressure sliding to the East of the UK. Still looking forwards early Feb for real blocking which is likely just beyond the scope of the models.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Mr Frost said:

Think some folk need counselling in here at the moment!

This GFS runs looks snowy so far and I will take marginal snow events over mild mush at anytime in Winter! 

 

Atleast someone on here is on the same wave length than me - Think we need to implement a new rule. Don't look further than 5 days on models lol

[blizzard81]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

You trust a 12s 198 hour chart that bears non resemblance to the 06z?

From past experience, the gfs 12z is more reliable than it's 06z sister. I will reserve judgement though until tonight's ecm. 

[joggs]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

What is west based?

Sorry.The phasing of the lows that the Candian vortex keep spewing.

[kold weather]

4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I think calling that GFS run 'awful' is a bit of an exaggeration. -8 uppers and unstable - Certainly cold enough for snow even to quite low levels. Uppers were higher than that yesterday and even people in the low laying, southern Urban Heat Island of London saw settling south.

Its not the worst for sure, but it probably makes it very unlikely the south is going to have enough cold advected down to make a go of it, especially as the synoptics don't look that bad to me still.

May still be a good run for Scotland/N.England as they are just that bit closer so have more leeway. For the south, probably game over on that run, at least for this attempt...there may be others.

In a westerly flow you really need -6/7C even for it to be marginal unless you have some really impressive upper cold with it, due to the Atlantic warming the lower level of the air in transit.

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[Radiating Dendrite]

16 minutes ago, P-M said:

Hill snow is all people mention just like recently yet areas of London got a decent covering.  Have you any charts to back up the "hill snow" scenario?  Not picking you up personally as I know others are saying this, but sweeping statements when the details are far from ironed out don't really help. 

Decent covering? Nothing in Central or South.

[booferking]

8 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The nor easterly signal remains!!!

And tbf..is gaining on the raw time shots..

Also an evolving/consistamt format of a decent split...

!!

 

Neither should be ignored now..as the gain is catching the eye.

Old data and your only as good as your last run and this is it for the same time period unfortunately ..

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by booferking

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its not the worst for sure, but it probably makes it very unlikely the south is going to have enough cold advected down to make a go of it, especially as the synoptics don't look that bad to me still.

May still be a good run for Scotland/N.England as they are just that bit closer so have more leeway. For the south, probably game over on that run, at least for this attempt...there may be others.

 

Define " South"

Southern England - Southern Britain 

Just for clarity 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Banbury

[ICE COLD]

7 minutes ago, DCee said:

What winter is that? There’s five weeks left of winter is all. After that most will be hunting warmth. I detest cold in spring.

Oh I can’t wait for a lovely cold spring . That’s when the beast will hit

[feb1991blizzard]

Dyer output - absolutely gutted.

Edited January 23, 2019 by Norrance

[DIS1970]

I know i said it looked like it was going pear shaped, but aren't the two main runs people take more notice of the 06z and the 18z, as more detail info is used, i may be wrong but seem to recall hearing somewhere.

[Met4Cast]

GFS.. 

[kold weather]

GFS 12z doesn't look that bad synoptically. Just shove that low a 100-200 miles south and you've actually got a very good run again. Indeed may still evolve into something 'ok'.

[coldwinter]

23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dyer output - absolutely  gutted.

Could be worse, could have this guy at your front door 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Norrance

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dyer output - absolutely effing gutted.

You must be a nightmare to live with Feb, your moods change more than the models, up and down more than a whores drawers!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dyer output - absolutely effing gutted.

Did someone mention Dyer

Getting a bit fractious in here. Think we need Danny to sort some of you lot out 

Edited January 23, 2019 by No Balls Like Snow Balls

[MP-R]

5 minutes ago, Banbury said:

So good enough for snow -5 is always nearly the level 

Exactly, need a bit more luck with -4/-5, -6/-7 is normally fine and -8C downwards is ideal. This of course relevant to the airmass we had yesterday. Different ballgame in battlegrounds and easterlies. Obviously, time of day and precipitation intensity is important too.

So, charts showing -5C and below hold snow potential, just not necessarily widespread.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Its not the worst for sure, but it probably makes it very unlikely the south is going to have enough cold advected down to make a go of it, especially as the synoptics don't look that bad to me still.

May still be a good run for Scotland/N.England as they are just that bit closer so have more leeway. For the south, probably game over on that run, at least for this attempt...there may be others.

 

It's marginal in the south but yesterday parts of the south saw settling snow in more marginal conditions. Central areas can also do well in this setup, as well as Northern areas. It's just that any snow wouldn't be long lasting away from high ground, and for the south in particularly it may come down to altitude, precipitation rate etc.

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dyer output - absolutely effing gutted.

And your thoughts if its at the top end of the ENS?

Knee jerk reaction or what - I do wonder 

[Skullzrulerz]

You got to love hey guys the GFS 12z is really awful so guess what ? 

It's all just boring all mush for the UK so winter is over 

Sometimes I think this is more entertaining then the soaps that some people are saying here

[mb018538]

No clean link up on the 12z, so it’s a cold rain run rather than snow like the 6z. Such fine margins!