Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland

Is the downwelling data entered into the model algorithms manually or how does that work?  I don't know what percentage the models rely on historically analogous set ups/data sets to produce their runs (massive overly simplified I know!) but being as rare an event as it is I would have thought a trop downwelling would cause absolute model chaos!  Models flipping within 24 hours where over-stating even the smallest variable would effect T-12 never mind T-144 and beyond.  Was the failed beast last week a victim?  Are we all victims?  Why do I care???  I'm now lying down...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn

I think it's nap time for me, before the 12zs start to roll out.. Setting my alarm 

 

Have a good one until then guys.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
2 minutes ago, minus86BriJ said:

Is the downwelling data entered into the model algorithms manually or how does that work?  I don't know what percentage the models rely on historically analogous set ups/data sets to produce their runs (massive overly simplified I know!) but being as rare an event as it is I would have thought a trop downwelling would cause absolute model chaos!  Models flipping within 24 hours where over-stating even the smallest variable would effect T-12 never mind T-144 and beyond.  Was the failed beast last week a victim?  Are we all victims?  Why do I care???  I'm now lying down...

It’s one model of the entire atmosphere from surface to top of strat .... whether the modelling is good at coping with downwelling waves is probably - no! 

 

 

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Thunderstorms mix both for heaven THUNDERSNOW 😜😀🤤🥰
  • Location: Kirkcaldy, Fife, Scotland 20m ASL
14 minutes ago, fluid dynamic said:

Just wondering what the Atlantic temperature is now

I found this chart sea-temperature.thumb.png.d6d6c2bc931ef238c5e816683ec9dc7e.png from here https://www.seatemperature.org/ going by the graph it looks like it is about 13C - 15C just to the west of the UK / Ireland, interesting warmer area in the English channel again going by the graph it looks like 17C-19C and a cooler area in the North Sea off the coast of NE England of around 7C 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
1 hour ago, Had Worse said:

When the plot flatlines at the top, is that an indication that we have won a northerly / Easterly?

I wondered what the 'Y' axis was measuring, perhaps you can explain?  Potential?

Nothing is won when it comes to weather forecasting until its within T72 

The y axis is showing the number of runs in the GEFS which show that particular weather type. There are 23 runs overall, the OP, control, parallel and the other 20 ens members.

This graph is saying that for January 31st, the most recent 06z showed that 16 out of 23 runs had a cold arctic northerly /easterly pattern  

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
40 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

honing in on a big neg AO return for the end of the month/beg feb 

Good news nick . I see the very cold and NE winds are back on the meto update for days 6-16 . There’s still a chance .

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
9 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think it's nap time for me, before the 12zs start to roll out.. Setting my alarm 

 

Have a good one until then guys.

You must be fairly new to all this as we all start out like that but after soooo many let downs, failed easterlys and long garden paths the excitement soon disappears. Yeah nice to see good charts as appossed to mild ones but until they make it inside 48hours then I’d not read to much into them. Even then they can go Pete tong. If they can go wrong in the uk then they 9/10 will

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

You must be fairly new to all this as we all start out like that but after soooo many let downs, failed easterlys and long garden paths the excitement soon disappears. Yeah nice to see good charts as appossed to mild ones but until they make it inside 48hours then I’d not read to much into them. Even then they can go Pete tong. If they can go wrong in the uk then they 9/10 will

Spot on mate 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
2 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

You must be fairly new to all this as we all start out like that but after soooo many let downs, failed easterlys and long garden paths the excitement soon disappears. Yeah nice to see good charts as appossed to mild ones but until they make it inside 48hours then I’d not read to much into them. Even then they can go Pete tong. If they can go wrong in the uk then they 9/10 will

This winter is a harsh lesson into the UK climate for any newbies. Makes it more special when we do get proper cold and snow though.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

06z swignometers

Potential cold spell from the arctic waiting in the wings, potentially for the end of January. Many of the runs show potential snow showers under a cold northerly wind with potential gales. There are some potential stonkers in there, most notably the parallel which has a potentially very cold flow from the NE. We could conclude from the swingometers that a potential northerly is likely but at the moment it is just potential.

As we get a little further into February, things may potentially be getting milder as there aren't as many runs with good potential for northern blocking. There are plenty of runs which show cold potential however. I like P4 with its potential easterly further down the line.

Looking at the global temperature anomalies for T168 things are potentially turning very amplified across the USA. Some potentially very mild air making its way to NE Canada where we would like to see it. This would leave use with a good deal of potential for a block over Greenland further down the line. With that the potential for a prolonged cold spell increases.

This post has so much potential.  Must be in the running for post of the day for the phrase "potential stonkers" alone!!!       or "swignometers" - which would be a much better name for breathalysers, surely?  

I like it a LOT!   Only on NETWEATHER, eh?  (with apologies to Quicksilver1989)   

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: G.Manchester
  • Location: G.Manchester
21 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I found this chart sea-temperature.thumb.png.d6d6c2bc931ef238c5e816683ec9dc7e.png from here https://www.seatemperature.org/ going by the graph it looks like it is about 13C - 15C just to the west of the UK / Ireland, interesting warmer area in the English channel again going by the graph it looks like 17C-19C and a cooler area in the North Sea off the coast of NE England of around 7C 

Yeah, and I'm the son of Bruce Lee.

That, my friend, is utter bullocks!

 

Try this https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/DailySummary/#sst

Edited by Optimus Prime
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
10 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Yeah, and I'm the son of Bruce Lee.

That, my friend, is utter bullocks!

why?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
1 hour ago, Jackski4 said:

... Is that good?

Oh yes big brudder.....High level Blocking 

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Still not seeing anything to convince me of HLB from the models this morning from the EPS. Clusters at day 6 tending to be fairly supportive of the pattern we've become used to, high pressure broadly out West allowing low pressure systems to sink Southwards across the UK

CLUST1.thumb.png.9617521919cfeedacd7c43d752f34a02.png

Extended clustering while there are some HLB clusters there, aren't screaming for it at the moment

EXT.thumb.png.ab3e30a9133e9279ec954fbe58a0941a.png

The closest to HLB the EPS mean can manage is this, whilst still of course a cold pattern isn't really gunning for deep cold proper

1836906838_download(1).thumb.png.e6f2ac66f38dd82badede3c4c262954e.png

The positive is the 8-10 anomalies are broadly in agreement between EC/GFS

test8.thumb.gif.677f6e1b0af19a11fcc2fd0af55c1ddd.gif

Going forward good support from the EPS London for temperatures below 5c so surface conditions will certainly be cold, but I'm not seeing a "Beast from the East" style cold spell with ample Northern Blocking at the moment

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.c158ae00dea88d1bb65413dbb005fda9.gif

Early February however is looking interesting. MJO phasing becomes more favourable moving into phase 7 and I suspect onto phase 8 beyond that seemingly coinciding with the SSW downwelling into the Troposphere we should start to see some very, very good charts coming out at the end of the runs in the next week or so, though expect model volatility to shoot right back up again when these things come together.

MJO.thumb.gif.aa4c5323a28b7d5bbd1f7da36b18be26.gif

Lots to be positive about. Still hunting for that deep snow..

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
  • Location: West Ipswich, Suffolk
1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

Well if you were purely going off the GFS/GEFS 6z you would be inclined to think there is a quite decent cold spell from the 27th . Looks good on the graph , plenty of snow chances

BAD6D164-8F63-43DC-8E26-21AD94FD7B95.png

I have a great dislike for all those spikes, they just keep screaming the different placements of failed heights coming through this season, though i do feel that one of those spike will suddenly flatline the rest in our favour, somewhere between 96-144hr.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Addington
  • Weather Preferences: Love a bit of snow
  • Location: Addington
13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Now I have more time I shall give you some examples of why im delighted with the output. I shall also explain why the models were wrong at +72 to +96 and how they have changed for the better.

First of all the low below is now heading SE. A few days ago the models did the usual of being reluctant to send this SE. This is a typical bias of the models when a low pressure comes up against a high pressure in this locality. The presence of this high pressure is important further along.

GFSOPEU06_96_1.png

The next low is the trigger because this is also heading SE. As it does so pressure rises to our N and is reinforced by the high pressure to our NE. The end result is more of a NE,ly than E,ly at this stage and it depends how far S the low goes.

GFSOPEU06_168_1.png

The SLP ensembles for Iceland/Oslo say it all really compared to a few days ago.

Only a few days ago the Iceland SLP mean was only 1008mb and now stands 1022mb and is likely to become 1030mb. The drop on the 29th is when the low pressure moves SE.

prmslReyjavic.png

Oslo SLP is even more impressive increasing to 1030mb with solid agreement except GEFS control at the end.

prmslOslo.png

Only caution I would advise is whether the GFS is over doing the blocking and if the low does not head far enough SE. At this stage im not concerned.

All of this is backed with the Cambs ensembles at -7C!

t850Cambridgeshire.png

 

What a great positive post teits

that’s a really great development,what with the volatility of all models these last few days.

confidence maybe finally growing today of getting a decent cold shot from the north or east at last.

do I also detect a mini ramp from you there maybe, as it’s finally something moving in the direction we need to see.

Edited by snowbob
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
  • Location: Trimdon, County Durham
53 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

You must be fairly new to all this as we all start out like that but after soooo many let downs, failed easterlys and long garden paths the excitement soon disappears. Yeah nice to see good charts as appossed to mild ones but until they make it inside 48hours then I’d not read to much into them. Even then they can go Pete tong. If they can go wrong in the uk then they 9/10 will

The worrying is that I still (foolishly) allow myself to be reeled in. Like a fish on a hook. Even after 6 or 7 years of being on here. 

  • Like 4
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Falmouth, Cornwall.
  • Location: Falmouth, Cornwall.

At least the current charts are showing weather of interest, whatever the outcome.   Great charts showing promise in 10-14 days time at least keeps us all engaged.   

Endless charts showing mid/wet/windy weather all winter with no potential interest would have most people finding another form of entertainment

To me, it looks like the chances for some notable Winter weather are increasing substantially, with the potential for some snow as soon as the weekend again!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
8 minutes ago, Jason74 said:

The worrying is that I still (foolishly) allow myself to be reeled in. Like a fish on a hook. Even after 6 or 7 years of being on here. 

It never really changes, I've been here since 2004 and still can get reeled in by those wonderful runs, especially when they occur several runs in a row. Hard to not get sucked in for sure!

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

Just Models please, No Meto extended chat in here that's for another thread.

Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
45 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Still not seeing anything to convince me of HLB from the models this morning from the EPS. Clusters at day 6 tending to be fairly supportive of the pattern we've become used to, high pressure broadly out West allowing low pressure systems to sink Southwards across the UK

CLUST1.thumb.png.9617521919cfeedacd7c43d752f34a02.png

Extended clustering while there are some HLB clusters there, aren't screaming for it at the moment

EXT.thumb.png.ab3e30a9133e9279ec954fbe58a0941a.png

The closest to HLB the EPS mean can manage is this, whilst still of course a cold pattern isn't really gunning for deep cold proper

1836906838_download(1).thumb.png.e6f2ac66f38dd82badede3c4c262954e.png

The positive is the 8-10 anomalies are broadly in agreement between EC/GFS

test8.thumb.gif.677f6e1b0af19a11fcc2fd0af55c1ddd.gif

Going forward good support from the EPS London for temperatures below 5c so surface conditions will certainly be cold, but I'm not seeing a "Beast from the East" style cold spell with ample Northern Blocking at the moment

ensemble-tt6-london.thumb.gif.c158ae00dea88d1bb65413dbb005fda9.gif

Early February however is looking interesting. MJO phasing becomes more favourable moving into phase 7 and I suspect onto phase 8 beyond that seemingly coinciding with the SSW downwelling into the Troposphere we should start to see some very, very good charts coming out at the end of the runs in the next week or so, though expect model volatility to shoot right back up again when these things come together.

MJO.thumb.gif.aa4c5323a28b7d5bbd1f7da36b18be26.gif

Lots to be positive about. Still hunting for that deep snow..

Is that not a long period of downwelling? Just a novice so your view would be appreciated 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...