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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

GFS managed to build a ridge before the D7 low, ECM is looking a lot more eager to get it through however. 

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
4 minutes ago, Johnp said:

168hrs it's gone pear shaped like yesterday with that deep low ploughing through the block like it's not there.

Next!

Yep back to cold zonality, the endless wait for deep cold goes on and on and on and ZZZzzzz

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T192, and we see the warm air advection start to build heights towards Greenland , good run this await the next frame:

image.thumb.jpg.5e7fd30286f25c47721bfb635c966a4c.jpg

I’m slightly concerned the next frame could be very West Based -NAO

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Hello everyone, I hope you are having a great evening so far.

It looks to me that hope has now arrived again and in this thread, we need that a lot these days. However, like I mentioned yesterday, nothing is impossible when it comes to the weather and today represented that. Many areas saw snow and some with accumulations. I remember many saying 'no snow will fall unless on hills', yet many saw snow today!

From present onwards and into the end of the week, it looks to me the jet still wants to reload and each time it moves ever so slightly west and we get closer and closer to what we want.

it is my opinion that we will finally strike gold some time in the next 2 weeks. I know many have said this before 'in 10 days it will be cold' or 'in 10 days it could snow' but this is a very different scenario. We are now in the cold and there is no sign of it warming up, minus the few times the jet reloads and we get into a temporary westerly.

It is during these times, the transitions from cold to warm or vice - versa that we could see a significant snow event. We have the ingredients and we a are almost there. Patience has been needed this winter but it may well pay its dividends soon..

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

  This ECM is like pulling teeth.  It might eventually get there but it's painful and tortuous!

Yeah it is a very slow evolution, also 192hrs is good but at slight risk of going wrong if the atlantic low becomes too dominant in the broader circulation as that could turn the winds more SW. Luckily both the UK low and Atlantic low are weakening at the same time.

Karlos, that's certainly a risk though I think there is still too much pressure from the PV lobe for that to happen.

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216:

image.thumb.jpg.0fe4a16a0efd37f406386495f30250df.jpg

Should be ok in the end, some half decent WAA heading up west Greenland

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T216:

image.thumb.jpg.0fe4a16a0efd37f406386495f30250df.jpg

That is ok, a little slow in getting the cold air in and obviously the vortex is going for it agsian over the states so our window to get a solid block in may not be that long...but longer than the failed easterly!

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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Should be ok in the end, some half decent WAA heading up west Greenland

I'm worried about the pressure building over Europe

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The Russian high is not doing us a favour by day 9 as it’s blocking the low from clearing further east .

Not liking the ECM run past day 6 and at day 9 it’s trying to also force  a ridge ne into Southern Europe .

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

second ec op to lift heights up into Europe at a time when they should be dropping ….. hopefully a two run blip which will be gone by tomorrow

i like its polar profile though ...

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland

Decent ECM T216 for Scotland - definitely not a stonker/boom chart though. 

6BC6D127-F648-4A55-A445-6A9E2763DDDD.png

E2AF71BA-C987-4080-B48F-2E398DD3BFB8.png

 

Again decent ECM T240 for Scotland - 

 

0CE3CD4E-F747-4996-8AEB-0EDCE696837B.png

32E56506-4D04-4BF9-ABD8-5D3FC165E7B3.png

Edited by Mr Frost
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Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

That is ok, a little slow in getting the cold air in and obviously the vortex is going for it agsian over the states so our window to get a solid block in may not be that long...but longer than the failed easterly!

The GFS was miles better than this, but you we're super critical of it, yet you're praising this pants ECM run?

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Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

second ec op to lift heights up into Europe at a time when they should be dropping ….. hopefully a two run blip which will be gone by tomorrow

Very much against ensemble guidance.  Let's hope the op is not leading the way here!

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The Russian high is not doing us a favour by day 9 as it’s blocking the low from clearing further east .

Not liking the ECM run past day 6 and at day 9 it’s trying to also force  a ridge ne into Southern Europe .

I think that's the balance Nick, we could get a brief easterly from a stronger Scandi high, but it makes evolving into a cold spell down the line more difficult. The GEM manages to do it regardless.

Here comes that PV lobe again at 240hrs, window rapidly shutting on that 12z ECM with only hsalf the country in the cold and a PAINFULLY slow evolution.

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, Johnp said:

The GFS was miles better than this, but you we're super critical of it, yet you're praising this pants ECM run?

Oh no it looked ok at 168hrs, its rather gone down hill since that time thanks to the re-emergence of that PV lobe over Canada. 12z GDS IS miles betters for sure!

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Posted
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
  • Location: Wyck Nr Alton- Hants
4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

GEFS 12z look pretty decent

FD32D7FA-00F6-45A9-AAA8-338A52B9E27A.png

Very decent indeed - quite a significant number packed around -10

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yer another rubbish ecm . Getting bored now ecm .

Most probably verify at the longer time scale, that's how it's been for this wretched winter

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire

That EC op run takes us to the start of February . Horrible chart , if we get to that day 10 chart in tact then it really is Tick Tock tick tock on this winter

F9DFCEA0-D573-47D7-996A-1BFDA4C867ED.png

Edited by ICE COLD
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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The ECM starts off well then rapidly goes downhill .

Upto day 6 it’s fine and could improve further for snow chances . After that it hits the buffers .

Whatever happens it’s key to stop pressure rising over Southern Europe. That’s still some way off and let’s hope this isn’t a new trend because after finally seeing the PV split not sure many are in the mood to see this ECM outcome !

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Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

JMA poor too.

Why can't we ever get cross model agreement on a decent cold spell?

May I suggest it's because they don't have a scooby!

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